气候变化背景下陆面模式研究进展及不足

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.079

气候变暖背景下，全球气候系统各圈层发生了复杂的响应和反馈。作为气候系统重要组成部分的陆地表面是地气水热交换、地球化学要素传输、水文过程产生和植被生长的界面，受气候变化影响显著。气候变化不仅直接影响水文过程，还可以通过影响植被的结构和生理特征，间接影响水文过程。陆面模式是研究气候变化影响和反馈的主要工具。全球描述陆气界面物质和能量交换过程的模式主要有3类：全球陆面过程模式、全球水文模式和全球动态植被模式。3种模式针对不同的科学问题，各有其侧重点，之间的差异较大。从20世纪90年代开始至今的许多陆面模式比较计划不断指出模式的不足及其原因，从而促进了陆面模式的不断发展。然而陆面模式依然存在很多不足，有待进一步提高和发展。如目前的水文模式普遍缺乏动态植被过程，无法准确模拟和预测长期气候变化导致的植被变化对水文过程的影响，累及极端水文事件的模拟和未来水资源的预估。水文过程模型耦合动态植被过程是水文学研究的前沿领域。作为亚洲水塔的青藏高原气候变化显著，冰冻圈要素不仅包括冰川、积雪和冻土退缩，而且植被生长趋好、变绿。因此，在青藏高原气候变化对水文过程的影响研究中，更应考虑气候变化导致的植被变化的水文效应。此外，陆面模式对青藏高原土壤结构内部的水热交换过程描述不足。为进一步提高陆面模式在青藏高原的模拟能力，今后需加强对青藏高原土壤质地观测和数据搜集整理，以及对土壤冻融阶段的水热物理过程的观测，提高对过程和机理的认识，并将有关的认识体现在陆面模式中。

关键词: 气候变化, 植被变化, CO₂升高的水文效应, 陆面模式, 青藏高原

Global warming caused by human activities has resulted in significant changes in the climate system, including changes in the regional climate, extreme events, snow, ice, vegetation, air quality, water cycle, and responses and feedbacks among various components of the climate system. The land surface is where water, energy, and geochemical transports to and from the atmosphere occur, hydrological processes occur, and vegetation grows. Hence, the land surface is sensitive to climate change. Climate change affects the hydrological processes not only directly but also indirectly by affecting the vegetation structure and physiology. Land surface models are useful for studying climate change and its impacts on the land surface by modeling the relevant responses and feedbacks. There are three types of land surface models that simulate the mass and energy exchange between the land surface and atmosphere: the global land surface process model, global hydrological model, and global dynamic vegetation model. These three types of models focus on different specific components of the land surface. Since the 1990s, various land surface comparison projects have revealed many problems and shortcomings in land surface models and have furthered their development. However, various issues with these models still need to be addressed. For example, one major problem with the global hydrological model is that it does not incorporate dynamic vegetation growth; hence, it cannot project long-term vegetation change impacts on the hydrological processes—let alone extreme hydrological events such as flooding and drought—and cannot be useful with respect to future water resource management. Incorporating dynamic vegetation growth into hydrological models is a frontline research topic in hydrology. Moreover, many land surface models represent soil textures and heat exchanges among soil liquids, solids, and gases on the Tibetan Plateau insufficiently. This aspect requires improvement by enhancing the observations, understanding the relevant mechanisms, and realizing the mechanisms and processes in the land surface models. The Tibetan Plateau provides fresh water to the surrounding regions and forms and modulates climate and weather both regionally and globally; thus, it is dubbed the Asian Water Tower. Improving the land surface model capability of the plateau will improve the understanding of climate change and its impacts, both regionally and globally.

Key words: Climate change, Vegetation change, The effects of CO₂ increase on hydrological processes, Land surface model, The Tibetan Plateau.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 气候和植被变化的水文效应示意图
在寒区随着CO ₂浓度升高，气候变暖，植被长势趋好；相应的植被蒸散发增加，减少径流，此为CO ₂升高导致的植被结构效应；但同时由于气孔缩小、气孔密度减少，使得叶面气孔导度减小，植被水分利用效率提高，蒸散发减少，径流增加，此为CO ₂升高导致的植被生理效应；实心箭头为蒸散发，空心箭头表示气温升高；土壤中的有机质层和碎石展示在土壤柱体中

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of hydrological effects of climate and vegetation changes
With increasing CO ₂ concentration in the cold region， climate becomes warmer resulting in greener land surface. The increasing CO ₂ and greening surface will have two contradictory effects： greater evapotranspiration due to better vegetation growth and larger leaf area resulting in lower streamflow （vegetation structural effect）； lower evapotranspiration due to reduced stomatal conductance and higher water use efficiency， hence greater streamflow （vegetation physiological effect）. Solid arrows represent evapotranspiration； hollow arrow represents warming temperature. Soil column contains gravel and organic matter

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Advances and Deficiencies in Land Surface Modeling Under Global Warming