湖泊在区域水循环和生态系统演化中起着重要作用。在以往的湖泊演化研究中多利用湖泊沉积物代用指标重建湖泊与气候变化过程，缺乏对湖泊水循环特征的定量研究。基于特征时段流域、湖泊水量平衡模型以及瞬态气候演变模型的湖泊能量平衡模型，对青藏高原及周边6 个典型湖泊进行了水量平衡计算和湖泊演化模拟。结果表明：小柴达木湖和罗布泊全新世期间降水和蒸发的变率较小；色林错和纳木错早中全新世降水和蒸发的变率较大，主要受控于温度和净辐射变化；青海湖和猪野泽早中和中晚全新世降水和蒸发变率接近。系统分析了全新世期间青藏高原不同气候区湖泊水循环要素演化过程，有助于理解该区湖泊演化的古气候学机理。

Lakes play an essential role in the evolution of regional water cycles and ecosystems. In previous studies on lake evolution, most lake sediment proxy indicators have been used to reconstruct lake and climate change processes. However, there is a lack of quantitative research on the lake water cycle characteristics. Based on the water balance model for watersheds and lakes in distinct periods and the lake energy balance model based on the simulation of the transient climate, water balance calculations and lake evolution simulations for six typical lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas were carried out in this study. The results showed that the precipitation and evaporation variabilities in Xiao Qaidam Lake and Lop Nur were relatively
small during the Holocene. The precipitation and evaporation variability in Selinco and Namco were relatively large during the early–middle Holocene and were mainly controlled by temperature and net radiation changes. The precipitation and evaporation variabilities in Qinghai Lake and Zhuyeze were similar during the early and mid–late Holocene. This study systematically analyzed and calculated the evolution of lake water cycle elements in different climatic regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Holocene, which will help to understand the paleoclimatic mechanism of lake evolution in this region.