地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.029

   

青藏高原大气热源对长江中下游降水的影响研究综述
李淼1,马耀明2,1,3,4,5*,董晓华1,王明静1,胡雪儿1,杨鹏辉1   
  1. (1. 三峡大学 水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002;2. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所 青藏高原地球系统与资源环境重点实验室地气作用与气候效应团队,北京 100101;3. 中国科学院大学 地球与行星科学学院,北京 100049;4.兰州大学 大气科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730000;5.西藏珠穆朗玛特殊大气过程与环境变化国家野外科学观测研究站,西藏 定日 858200)
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金气象联合基金重点支持项目(编号:U2442213);中国科学技术部与欧洲空间局科技合作“龙计划”项目(编号:58516)资助.

A Review of the Influence of Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau on Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Li Miao1, Ma Yaoming2, 1, 3, 4, 5*, Dong Xiaohua1, Wang Mingjing1,Hu Xueer1, Yang Penghui1#br#   

  1. (1. College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China; 2.Land-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Climate Effects Group, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3.College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 4.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; 5.National Observation and Research Center on Earth Sciences for Qomolangma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes, Dingri Xizang 858200, China)
  • About author:Li Miao, research areas include hydrology and water resources. E-mail: 974640182@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the Key Program of the Meteorological Joint Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U2442213); The MOST-ESA Dragon Programme-Monitoring and Simulating Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycles over Eurasia under Climate Change Using Digital Twin Earth Approaches (Grant No. 58516).
青藏高原作为世界屋脊与巨大的抬升热源,其热力作用对亚洲季风及东亚气候格局具有关键影响。近年来,高原热力异常及其气候效应的研究已取得丰硕成果,但在其调控长江中下游多尺度降水及极端事件的动态机制方面,仍有待系统梳理与总结。围绕“热力强迫—环流响应—降水过程”这一主线,系统综述了青藏高原大气热源对长江中下游降水的影响机制,重点从热源的计算方法、时空分布特征、环流响应机制以及对降水过程与特征的影响4 个方面进行论述。系统阐 释了高原热源通过“背景态调制”与“直接强迫”双重路径调控关键环流系统,进而塑造长江中下游持续性降水典型配置(PSAH/NSAH型)与极端事件中“情景依赖型”角色的核心物理机制。高原热力作用并非一成不变的单一强迫,而是与热带海温等大尺度背景场存在复杂的协同调制关系,这种多强迫因子的组合配置决定了极端降水事件的触发与放大。最后展望了未来需重点开展的研究方向,指出需聚焦热源垂直结构的气候效应、极端降水事件的定量可归因度及多源数据融合等 关键科学问题,以提升对长江中下游降水变率的科学理解与精准预测能力。
Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the most massive elevated landform in the Northern Hemisphere, serves as a powerful atmospheric heat source that anchors the Asian monsoon system and profoundly influences East Asian climate patterns. Although extensive research has yielded fruitful results regarding the TP’s thermal anomalies and their climatic effects, a systematic review of its dynamic mechanisms in modulating multi-scale precipitation and extreme events over the Middle and Lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) is still lacking. Centered on the “thermal forcing-circulation response-precipitation processes” framework, this paper systematically reviews the mechanisms by which the TP’s atmospheric heat source affects precipitation in the MLYR. The review first addresses methods for quantifying the TP heat source, highlighting their uncertainties and spatiotemporal characteristics. We then comprehensively elucidate the core physical mechanisms through which the TP heat source modulates key atmospheric circulation systems via two pathways: “background state modulation” and “direct thermal forcing.” At upper levels, the TP’s thermal forcing governs the intensity and position of the South Asian High (SAH) and the seasonal migration of the subtropical westerly jet. At mid-levels, it acts as a primary source of Rossby wave trains that remotely influence the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). At lower levels, the “Sensible Heat-driven Air Pump” (SHAP) effect reshapes the monsoonal flow and establishes critical water vapor transport channels. Subsequently, the review synthesizes how these multi-level circulation adjustments translate into specific precipitation patterns over the MLYR. Two distinct configurations for persistent heavy rainfall are identified: the PSAH type, characterized by robust vertical coupling between an eastward-extended SAH and a westward-extended WPSH sustained by the rainfall-related ascent anomaly, and the NSAH type, which features a westward-extended WPSH but with a westward-retreated SAH. Furthermore, we introduce a novel framework of “scenario-dependent roles” to describe the TP’s function in extreme events. Specifically, it acts as a “primary driver” under weak external forcing (e. g., neutral ENSO), a “synergistic amplifier” when phase-locked with favorable oceanic conditions, or a “passive modulator” when strong external forcings like La Niña dominate. Our synthesis reveals that the TP’s thermal forcing is not an isolated, static driver, but rather exhibits a complex synergistic modulation with large-scale background states, such as tropical sea surface temperatures. The combination of these multiple forcing factors ultimately determines the triggering and amplification of extreme precipitation events. Finally, future research priorities are outlined to bridge existing knowledge gaps. These include advancing from analyzing the heat source’s total intensity to disentangling the differential climatic impacts of its vertical profile; moving beyond correlation to quantitative attribution of the TP’s role in specific extreme events; and overcoming data scarcity by developing a benchmark heat source dataset through the fusion of multi-source data. Addressing these challenges is crucial for advancing scientific understanding and enhancing the predictive capability for precipitation variability and extremes in the MLYR.

中图分类号: 

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