地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.080

   

我国近46 年暖季复合极端高温—极端降水事件特征
王若骥,黄丹青   
  1. (南京大学大气科学学院,江苏 南京 210023)
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2022YFF0801601)资助.

Characteristics of Compound Heatwaves and Precipitation Extremes of Warming Season in China in Past 46 Years

Wang Ruoji, Huang Danqing   

  1. (School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)
  • About author:First author: WANG Ruoji, research area includes weather and climate extremes. E-mail: wrj@smail.nju.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFF0801601).
人类活动与全球变暖增加了极端高温和极端降水事件发生的概率,二者复合事件严重影 响居民健康、社会经济和生态系统。基于1979—2024 年逐日气温和降水数据,引入干、湿极端高温 以细化事件类型,分析了我国近46 年间暖季(5~9 月)复合极端高温—极端降水事件的频数、强度 和影响范围的特征,发现全国此类事件的发生频率与影响范围均呈快速增长趋势,且在2000 年后 增速加快。复合事件中极端高温和极端降水强度,均显著高于单独的极端高温和降水事件,2000 年后复合事件的强度和极端程度,较1979—2000 年明显增强。进一步区分干、湿极端高温类型发 现,湿极端高温复合事件集中于河西走廊和四川盆地等频发区,而干极端高温复合事件在全国范 围内分布相对均匀。近46 年湿极端高温复合事件在全部复合事件的占比持续上升,且其极端高温 强度强于干极端高温,这一特征预示,湿极端高温复合事件相比单独极端事件和干极端高温复合 事件造成损失的风险更高,且随着全球变暖加剧潜在风险正在逐渐增大,需持续重点关注。 
Abstract:Anthropogenic activities and global warming have amplified the likelihood of both heatwave and precipitation extremes. Particularly, rather than the individual extreme events, the compound heatwaves and precipitation extremes, pose severe threats to public health, socio-economics, and ecosystems. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from ERA5 reanalysis in the period of 1979 to 2024, this study introduced a classification of dry and moist heatwaves to analyze the frequency, magnitude, and temporal evolution of compound heatwave and precipitation extremes over China in the warm season (from May to September). The results reveal a rapid increase in the occurrence and spatial extent of such events nationwide, with an accelerated trend observed after 2000. The heatwave magnitude of temperature and precipitation extreme magnitude were found to be significantly higher than that of individual extremes, with the enhanced extremeness after 2000 than before. For comparison, the moist heatwave compound extremes were found to be concentrated in frequent occurrence regions such as the Hexi Corridor and the Sichuan Basin, while the dry heatwave compound extremes showed a nearly uniform distribution across the country. Over the past 46 years, a persistent increase has been observed in the proportion of moist heatwave-compound events. Moreover, the heatwave magnitude of temperature in moist heatwave compound extremes was demonstrated to be stronger than that in dry heatwave compound extremes, suggesting a higher risk of damage compared to individual extremes or dry heatwave compound extremes. This potential risk is projected to further escalate with ongoing global warming, which requires sustained attention and monitoring.

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