全球1.5 ℃温升背景下中国极端事件变化的区域模式预估

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0446

地球科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 446 -457. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0446

所属专题：极端天气；

全球1.5 ℃温升背景下中国极端事件变化的区域模式预估

李东欢 ^1, ²(

), 邹立维 ^1, ^3, ^*(

), 周天军 ^1, ²

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.江苏省气候变化协同创新中心,江苏南京 210023

收稿日期:2017-02-02 修回日期:2017-04-02 出版日期:2017-04-20
通讯作者: 邹立维 E-mail:lidh@lasg.iap.ac.cn;zoulw@mail.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建立与研究”(编号:GYHY201506012);国家自然科学基金项目“东亚—西北太平洋夏季风的参数优化研究”(编号:41575105)资助

Changes of Extreme Indices over China in Response to 1.5 ℃ Global Warming Projected by a Regional Climate Model

Donghuan Li ^1, ²( ), Liwei Zou ^1, ^3, ^*( ), Tianjun Zhou ^1, ²

1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3.Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2017-02-02 Revised:2017-04-02 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
Contact: Liwei Zou E-mail:lidh@lasg.iap.ac.cn;zoulw@mail.iap.ac.cn
About author:
First author:Li Donghuan (1990-), female, Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D. Student.Research areas include climate modeling.E-mail:lidh@lasg.iap.ac.cn

*Corresponding author:Zou Liwei (1984-), male, Qingliu City, Fujian Province, Associate professor. Research areas include development and application of regional climate model.E-mail:zoulw@mail.iap.ac.cn
Supported by:
Project Supportd by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) “Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s, CMA and CESM”(No.GYHY201506012);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Parameter calibration of climate models in the simulation of East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon”(No.41575105)

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利用区域海气耦合模式FROALS模拟的区域气候模式降尺度协同试验(CORDEX)的东亚区域的动力降尺度试验数据,分析了全球1.5 ℃温升背景下中国地区极端温度指数、极端降水指数以及民生相关指数的可能变化。结果表明,中国地区的暖事件显著增加,冷事件显著减少。高强度和中等强度极端暖事件发生风险分别为1986—2005年基准期的2.14和1.93倍,高强度和中等强度极端冷事件发生风险分别为基准期的0.58和0.63倍。分区来看,华北的高强度极端暖事件增幅最大(将为基准期的2.94倍),东北高强度极端冷事件减幅最大(将为基准期的0.38倍)。西北、青藏高原以及东北等地区的极端干旱事件发生风险略增加(分别为基准期的1.13,1.04,1.22倍)。全国大部分地区的平均降水显著增加,高强度的极端降水事件在全国普遍增加,并且在华北和东南的发生风险增幅最大(分别为基准期的1.88倍和1.85倍)。闷热日数在东部地区显著增加,并且与单一的极端高温事件相比,极端闷热日数的增加风险更大(将为基准期的5.34倍)。全国取暖度日显著减少,东部以及西北的降温度日显著增加,在人口密度较大的东部地区取暖度日的减幅(-258 ℃·d)大于降温度日的增幅(72 ℃·d),但与基准期相比,降温度日的变化比例(82%)大于取暖度日(-10%)。

关键词: 1.5 ℃温升阈值, 极端温度指数, 极端降水指数, 民生相关指数

The possible changes of extreme climates over China under 1.5 ℃ global warming scenario were investigated by using the output of CORDEX (COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) experiments with a regional air-sea coupled model FROALS over East Asia domain. Results indicated that compared to the baseline period of 1986-2005, warm events would significantly increase while cold events would significantly decrease over China in a 1.5 ℃ warmer world. The risks of extreme and moderate warm events would be 2.14 and 1.93 times of that in the baseline period, respectively. The risks of extreme and moderate cold events would be 0.58 and 0.63 times of that in the baseline period, respectively. Compared to other sub-regions, the increasing amplitude of extreme warm events would be higher in North China, while the decreasing amplitude of extreme cold events would be higher in Northeast China. Risks of extreme dry events would increase in Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China (1.13, 1.02 and 1.22 times of that in baseline period). Precipitation intensity and extreme wet events would increase significantly over most parts of China, and the increasing amplitudes extreme wet events will be higher in North China and South China (1.88 and 1.85 times of that in the baseline period). Days when people may feel uncomfortable would increase significantly in eastern China, and compared to simple extreme warm events, the increasing amplitude of extreme uncomfortable days would be larger. The absolute changes of heating degree-days would be larger than that of cooling degree-days (-258℃·d and 72℃·d, respectively) in eastern China, but the relative change of heating degree-days would be smaller than cooling degree-days (-10% and 82%, respectively).

Key words: 1.5 ℃ warming target, Extreme temperature indices, Extreme precipitation indices, People’s livelihood associated indices.

中图分类号:

P467

表1 本文使用的指数定义

Table 1 The definition of indices used in this study

名称	英文缩写	定义	单位
日最高气温最大值	TXx	每年日最高气温最大值	℃
日最低气温最小值	TNn	每年日最低气温最小值	℃
夏季日数	SU	每年日最高气温大于25 ℃的天数	d
冰冻日数	ID	每年日最高气温小于0 ℃的天数	d
连续干旱日数	CDD	每年最长连续无降水日数(日降水量<1 mm)	d
降水强度	SDII	日降水量不低于1 mm的所有降水日的平均值	mm/d
中等强降水天数	R10	每年日降水量不小于10 mm的天数	d
强降水量	R95p	每年日降水量不低于1 mm的所有降水日中超过95%分位的所有降水日的降水总量	mm
闷热日数	DD	每年体感温度高于40 ℃的日数	d
取暖度日	HD	每年日平均气温低于10 ℃日平均温度与10 ℃之差的总和	℃·d
降温度日	CD	每年日平均气温高于22 ℃日平均温度与22 ℃之差的总和	℃·d

表1 本文使用的指数定义

Table 1 The definition of indices used in this study

名称	英文缩写	定义	单位
日最高气温最大值	TXx	每年日最高气温最大值	℃
日最低气温最小值	TNn	每年日最低气温最小值	℃
夏季日数	SU	每年日最高气温大于25 ℃的天数	d
冰冻日数	ID	每年日最高气温小于0 ℃的天数	d
连续干旱日数	CDD	每年最长连续无降水日数(日降水量<1 mm)	d
降水强度	SDII	日降水量不低于1 mm的所有降水日的平均值	mm/d
中等强降水天数	R10	每年日降水量不小于10 mm的天数	d
强降水量	R95p	每年日降水量不低于1 mm的所有降水日中超过95%分位的所有降水日的降水总量	mm
闷热日数	DD	每年体感温度高于40 ℃的日数	d
取暖度日	HD	每年日平均气温低于10 ℃日平均温度与10 ℃之差的总和	℃·d
降温度日	CD	每年日平均气温高于22 ℃日平均温度与22 ℃之差的总和	℃·d

图1 相对于1986—2005年基准期,1.5 ℃全球增暖时中国极端温度事件的变化
(a)TXx (单位:℃);(b)TNn(单位:℃);(c)SU(单位:天);(d)ID(单位:天);打点表示通过95%显著性检验

Fig.1 Spatial distributions of projected changes of extreme temperature indices for 1.5 ℃ warming period relative to the period of 1986-2005
(a) TXx (℃);(b) TNn (℃);(c) SU (d);(d) ID (d); Dotted areas are statistically significant at the 5% level

表2 各区域各指数到达1.5 ℃温升时的变化(绝对值/百分比)

Table 2 Regional averaged changes for the warming of 1.5 ℃ relative to reference period of each index in each sub-region (absolute change/relative change)

	NW	TB	NC	NE	SE
TXx	1.24	1.19	1.67	1.70	1.40
TNn	1.53	1.29	1.62	1.84	1.38
SU	8.55/23.3	-	12.2/15.8	15.3/42.3	17.4/16.1
ID	-12.9/-9.2	-14.0/-6.8	-12.5/-15.4	-6.5/-3.8	-2.2/-43.4
CDD	1.67/3.6	0.02/0.07	-1.1/-2.3	0.18/0.6	-3.5/-8.7
SDII	0.24/5.6	0.29/6.3	1.1/13.6	0.20/3.2	0.87/8.6
R10	1.07/13.2	1.6/11.7	0.30/3.7	0.13/0.9	-1.5/-6.2
R95p	9.6/8.4	16.0/11.0	30.0/14.8	13.9/6.1	40.0/10.1
DD	-	-	6.76/104	1.84/223	14.8/158
HD	-363/-8.5	-419/-5.7	-305/-10.7	-348/-6.9	-142/-16.2
CD	28.7/76.9	-	64.5/73.4	35.3/126.7	103.8/76.7

表2 各区域各指数到达1.5 ℃温升时的变化(绝对值/百分比)

Table 2 Regional averaged changes for the warming of 1.5 ℃ relative to reference period of each index in each sub-region (absolute change/relative change)

	NW	TB	NC	NE	SE
TXx	1.24	1.19	1.67	1.70	1.40
TNn	1.53	1.29	1.62	1.84	1.38
SU	8.55/23.3	-	12.2/15.8	15.3/42.3	17.4/16.1
ID	-12.9/-9.2	-14.0/-6.8	-12.5/-15.4	-6.5/-3.8	-2.2/-43.4
CDD	1.67/3.6	0.02/0.07	-1.1/-2.3	0.18/0.6	-3.5/-8.7
SDII	0.24/5.6	0.29/6.3	1.1/13.6	0.20/3.2	0.87/8.6
R10	1.07/13.2	1.6/11.7	0.30/3.7	0.13/0.9	-1.5/-6.2
R95p	9.6/8.4	16.0/11.0	30.0/14.8	13.9/6.1	40.0/10.1
DD	-	-	6.76/104	1.84/223	14.8/158
HD	-363/-8.5	-419/-5.7	-305/-10.7	-348/-6.9	-142/-16.2
CD	28.7/76.9	-	64.5/73.4	35.3/126.7	103.8/76.7

图2 中国地区极端温度事件概率密度分布
(a)TXx (单位:℃);(b)TNn(单位:℃);(c)SU(单位:天);(d)ID(单位:天);实线表示基准期(1986—2005年),粗虚线表示1.5 ℃全球增暖;细虚线表示基准期(1986—2005年)中5%极端值,(a),(c)和(d)中表示极端高值,(b)中表示极端低值

Fig.2 Frequency distributions of extreme temperature indices
(a) TXx (℃);(b) TNn (℃);(c) SU (d);(d) ID (d);Solid lines indicate the results during 1986-2005 and thick dashed lines indicate the results during 1.5 ℃ warming period. The fine dashed lines in (a), (c) and (d) indicate the 5% extreme high value for baseline period 1986-2005 and the fine dashed line in (b) indicates the 5% extreme low value for baseline period 1986-2005

图3 相对于1986—2005年基准期,全球平均1.5 ℃温升时850 hPa风场(箭头,单位:m/s)和比湿(填色,单位:g/kg)的变化
(a)年平均;(b)夏季平均;白色填色表示地表气压低于850 hPa的区域

Fig.3 Spatial distributions of projected changes of 850 hPa low level wind (vector, m/s) and specific humidity (shaded, g/kg) for 1.5 ℃ warming period relative to the period of 1986-2005
(a) Annual mean;(b) Summer mean.The white shading denotes the regions in which the surface pressure is lower than 850 hPa

图4 相对于1986—2005年基准期,1.5 ℃全球增暖时中国极端降水事件的变化
(a)CDD (单位:天);(b)SDII(单位:mm/d);(c)R10(单位:天);(d)R95p(单位:mm);打点区域表示通过95%显著性检验

Fig.4 Spatial distributions of projected changes of extreme precipitation indices for 1.5 ℃ warming period relative to the period of 1986-2005
(a) CDD (d), (b) SDII (mm/d), (c) R10 (d) and (d) R95p (mm); Dotted areas indicate changes statistically significant at the 5% level

表3 各区域基准期中各指数极端5%事件在1.5 ℃温升下与基准期的概率比

Table 3 Risk ratio of 5% extreme value for each index in each sub-region

	NW	TB	NC	NE	SE
TXx	2.20	1.16	2.94	2.60	1.65
TNn	0.46	0.44	0.42	0.38	0.41
SU	2.86	-	2.44	2.71	2.42
ID	0.72	0.73	0.57	0.33	0.47
CDD	1.13	1.04	0.64	1.22	0.45
SDII	1.46	1.14	2.30	1.78	2.31
R10	1.27	1.05	0.97	1.18	0.71
R95p	1.38	1.21	1.88	1.75	1.85
DD	-	-	4.27	2.95	5.34
HD	0.59	0.58	0.28	0.06	0.35
CD	2.76	-	4.63	3.19	3.54

表3 各区域基准期中各指数极端5%事件在1.5 ℃温升下与基准期的概率比

Table 3 Risk ratio of 5% extreme value for each index in each sub-region

	NW	TB	NC	NE	SE
TXx	2.20	1.16	2.94	2.60	1.65
TNn	0.46	0.44	0.42	0.38	0.41
SU	2.86	-	2.44	2.71	2.42
ID	0.72	0.73	0.57	0.33	0.47
CDD	1.13	1.04	0.64	1.22	0.45
SDII	1.46	1.14	2.30	1.78	2.31
R10	1.27	1.05	0.97	1.18	0.71
R95p	1.38	1.21	1.88	1.75	1.85
DD	-	-	4.27	2.95	5.34
HD	0.59	0.58	0.28	0.06	0.35
CD	2.76	-	4.63	3.19	3.54

图5 中国地区极端降水事件概率密度分布
(a)CDD (单位:天);(b)SDII(单位:mm/d);(c)R10(单位:天);(d)R95p(单位:mm);实线表示基准期,粗虚线表示1.5 ℃全球增暖。细虚线表示基准期(1986—2005年)中5%极端高值

Fig.5 Frequency distributions of extreme precipitation indices
(a) CDD (d);(b) SDII (mm/d);(c) R10 (d) ;(d) R95p (mm); Solid lines indicate the results during 1986-2005 and thick dashed lines indicate the results during 1.5 ℃ warming period; The fine dashed lines indicate the 5% extreme values for baseline period 1986-2005

图6 相对于1986—2005年基准期,1.5 ℃全球增暖时中国民生相关指数的变化
(a)DD(单位:天);(b)HD(单位:℃·d );(c)CD(单位:℃·d );打点区域表示通过95%显著性检验

Fig.6 Spatial distributions of projected changes of people’s livelihood related indices for 1.5 ℃ warming period relative to the period of 1986-2005
(a) DD (d);(b) HD (℃·d) ;(c) HD (℃·d); Dotted areas indicate the changes statistically significant at the 5% level

图7 中国地区民生指数概率密度分布
(a)DD(单位:天);(b)HD(单位:℃·d );(c)CD(单位:℃·d );实线表示基准期,粗虚线表示1.5 ℃全球增暖;细虚线表示基准期(1986—2015年)中5%极端高值

Fig.7 Frequency distributions of people’s livelihood related indices
(a) DD (d);(b) HD (℃·d) ;(c) HD (℃·d);Solid lines indicate the results during 1986-2005 and thick dashed lines indicate the results during 1.5 ℃ warming period; The fine dashed lines indicate the 5% extreme values for baseline period 1986-2005

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