近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0577

对中国近50年来极端降水事件的研究表明,在全球变暖背景下极端降水事件的频率和强度均有升高的趋势,但存在明显的区域差异。观测分析表明长江中下游,东南地区和西北的部分区域极端降水有增加趋势,而华北、东北和西南的部分地区有减少趋势。现阶段不同模式模拟的结果还存在差异,但总的预测结论表明中国极端降水有极化的趋势。首先从统计学角度通过分析均值和极值的关系,探讨了极端降水事件概念的界定,然后分析了不同区域极端降水的变化趋势。在综述中国极端降水研究的基础上,以极端降水变化趋势较为复杂的长江流域作为典型气候区,从海—气相互作用角度对影响极端降水的物理机制和过程进行了总结。分析表明能够反映极端降水本质特性的定义和影响极端降水的物理过程还需要进一步研究,并且随着研究深入,新的影响极端降水的因子也会被逐渐发现。

关键词: 极端降水事件, 全球气候变化, 物理成因

Studies on extreme precipitation events during last 50 years indicated that the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes increased but exhibited distinct regional difference under the background of global warming. Observations showed that extreme precipitation increased in mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southeast and some regions in northwestern China, moreover the decreasing trends of extreme precipitation were investigated in north, northeast and southwest regions. Overall prediction of models suggested that the extreme precipitation in China would be polarized although differences of outputs presented between different models. Concepts and definitions of extreme precipitation events were investigated by analyzing the relationship between mean and extreme from the angle of statistics, and then the trends of precipitation extremes were analyzed in different regions. Physical mechanisms and processes affecting extreme precipitation were summarized from the viewpoint of air-sea interaction taking Yangtze River basin, where the trends of extreme precipitation were complex, as typical climate zone, on the basis of summary of studies of extreme precipitation in China. However, the definitions that can reflect the essence of extreme precipitation need further study, and the physical processes affecting extreme precipitation are not fully understood. In addition, the new impact factors are constantly discovered along with the in-depth study of extreme precipitation events.

Key words: Extreme precipitation events, Global climate change, Physical causes.

中图分类号:

图1 平均值和极端值变化关系示意图 (a) 服从标准正态分布的气温；(b) 服从伽马分布的降水(依据文献[26]重绘)

Fig.1 Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures When (a) both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature; Extreme precipitation (b) when gamma distribution(modified and redrawn from reference[26])

表1 ETCCDMI定义的11个降水指数

Table 1 List of ETCCDMI core precipitation indices

指标	名称	定义	单位
RX1day	1日最大降水量	每月最大1日降水量	mm
RX5day	5日最大降水量	每月连续5 日最大降水量	mm
SDII	平均日降水强度	年降水量与降水日数(日降水量≥ 1.0 mm)比值	mm/d
R10	中雨以上日数	日降水量(PRCP)≥ 10 mm的日数	d
R20	大雨以上日数	日降水量(PRCP)≥ 20 mm的日数	d
Rnn	暴雨以上日数	日降水量(PRCP)≥ N mm的日数	d
CDD	连续干日	日降水量(PRCP)连续< 1.0 mm的最长时期	d
CWD	连续湿日	日降水量(PRCP)连续≥ 1.0 mm的最长时期	d
R95p	强降水量	日降水量 95%分位值的总降水量(以1961-1999年时间段湿日为基础)	mm
R99p	极强降水量	日降水量 99%分位值的总降水量(以1961-1999年时间段湿日为基础)	mm
PRCPTOT	年总降水量	一年中日降水量≥ 1.0 mm的降水总和	mm

表1 ETCCDMI定义的11个降水指数

Table 1 List of ETCCDMI core precipitation indices

指标	名称	定义	单位
RX1day	1日最大降水量	每月最大1日降水量	mm
RX5day	5日最大降水量	每月连续5 日最大降水量	mm
SDII	平均日降水强度	年降水量与降水日数(日降水量≥ 1.0 mm)比值	mm/d
R10	中雨以上日数	日降水量(PRCP)≥ 10 mm的日数	d
R20	大雨以上日数	日降水量(PRCP)≥ 20 mm的日数	d
Rnn	暴雨以上日数	日降水量(PRCP)≥ N mm的日数	d
CDD	连续干日	日降水量(PRCP)连续< 1.0 mm的最长时期	d
CWD	连续湿日	日降水量(PRCP)连续≥ 1.0 mm的最长时期	d
R95p	强降水量	日降水量 95%分位值的总降水量(以1961-1999年时间段湿日为基础)	mm
R99p	极强降水量	日降水量 99%分位值的总降水量(以1961-1999年时间段湿日为基础)	mm
PRCPTOT	年总降水量	一年中日降水量≥ 1.0 mm的降水总和	mm

图2 1951—2010年期间中国年极端降水事件数量的距平变化(数据来源：中国气象局国家气候中心)

Fig.2 Annual extreme precipitation number anomalies in China during 1951—2010(Source: National Climate Centre (NCC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA))

表2 中国极端降水趋势的主要研究

Table 2 Summary for the major studies of trends in extreme precipitation events reported in China

研究区域	数据时长	降水指标	分析时段	参考文献
全国	1951—1989	年降水量	全年	[38]
全国	1951—1995	季节内日最大降水量,年平均降水密度	全年,季节	[14]
中国北部	1956—2000	降水持续时间和干旱持续时间	5~9月	[47]
全年	1980—2002	年降水量	年代际	[48]
全国	1961—2000	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[40]
全国	1960—2000	季降水量	全年,季节	[49]
全国	1961—2001	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[15]
全国	1951—2000	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[4]
全国	1960—2000	十等分降水	全年,季节	[50]
全国	1954—2000	月降水	全年	[51]
长江流域	1961—2000	月降水	季节	[52]
全国	1960—2000	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[53]
长江流域	1960—2005	年、季最大降水量	全年,季节	[54]
珠江流域	1961—2007	年、月最大降水量	全年,季节	[55]
江淮、黄淮流域	1951—2004	年、月最大降水量	全年,季节	[45]
全国	1951—2004	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[13]

表2 中国极端降水趋势的主要研究

Table 2 Summary for the major studies of trends in extreme precipitation events reported in China

研究区域	数据时长	降水指标	分析时段	参考文献
全国	1951—1989	年降水量	全年	[38]
全国	1951—1995	季节内日最大降水量,年平均降水密度	全年,季节	[14]
中国北部	1956—2000	降水持续时间和干旱持续时间	5~9月	[47]
全年	1980—2002	年降水量	年代际	[48]
全国	1961—2000	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[40]
全国	1960—2000	季降水量	全年,季节	[49]
全国	1961—2001	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[15]
全国	1951—2000	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[4]
全国	1960—2000	十等分降水	全年,季节	[50]
全国	1954—2000	月降水	全年	[51]
长江流域	1961—2000	月降水	季节	[52]
全国	1960—2000	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[53]
长江流域	1960—2005	年、季最大降水量	全年,季节	[54]
珠江流域	1961—2007	年、月最大降水量	全年,季节	[55]
江淮、黄淮流域	1951—2004	年、月最大降水量	全年,季节	[45]
全国	1951—2004	年、季降水量	全年,季节	[13]

图3 1967-2010年冬季青藏高原积雪与来年长江流域夏季区域极端降水指数关系图数据来源：中国气象局国家气候中心和美国国家冰雪数据中心

Fig.3 The time series of observed regional summer extreme precipitation index and winter Tibet Plateau snow during the period of 1967-2010 Source: National Climate Centre (NCC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), USA

图4 影响长江流域夏季极端降水物理机制和过程示意图

Fig. 4 The schematic of physical mechanism and process that affect summer extreme precipitation in Yangtze River basin

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Study on Progress of the Trends and Physical causes of Extreme Precipitation in China During the Last 50 Years