不同积云对流参数化方案对黑河流域降水模拟的影响

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0590

使用NCEP-fnl再分析资料作为黑河流域高分辨率区域气候模式的初始场和边界场,利用该模式中常用的3种积云对流参数化方案:Grell,Bett-Miller(BM)和不采用积云对流参数化方案(NON)对黑河流域进行2000年1月1日至12月31日的积分试验,重点考察水平分辨率在3 km条件下不同积云对流参数化方案对黑河流域降水模拟的敏感性。结果表明：①卫星遥感反演的黑河流域的降水较观测台站降水偏少,卫星遥感反演日降水与观测台站日降水的相关系数达到0.34,相关系数通过99%置信度检验；②模式采用3种参数化方案都能够较好地模拟出年降水空间分布以及不同区域日平均降水随时间演变,与观测之间的相关系数都通过99%置信度检验；③对于黑河流域来说,在水平分辨率为3 km条件下区域气候模式采用Grell积云对流参数化方案较其他2种方案无论从空间和时间演变来说均更加接近观测。

关键词: 高分辨率区域气候模式, 积云对流参数化, 黑河流域, 降水

In order to examine sensitivity of cumulus convective parameterization scheme in climate simulating over the Heihe River Basin(HRB), three cumulus parameterization schemes in Regional Integrated Environmental Model System for HRB(RIEMS-Heihe) with 3km resoultion, Grell, Bett-Miller (BM) and NON were compared and analyzed in precipitation simulation over HRB. The analysis results showed the following: ①BNU daily precipitation in the whole of the HRB was underestimated than the observed precipitation.②Either cumulus convective parameterization schemes, model could simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of daily precipitation in different regions of HRB, and the correlation coefficient between the simulated and observed daily precipitation reached a significance level of 1%. ③For the HRB, RIEMS Heihewith the Grellcumulus convective parameterizationscheme than the other two schemes in term of evolution of daily precipitationis was closer to that of the observation, and the correlation coefficient between the simulated and observed daily precipitation reached a significance level of 1%.

Key words: High-resolution regional climate model, Cumulus convective parameterization scheme, Heihe River Basin, Precipitation.

中图分类号:

P426.5

图1 黑河流域地形高度和气象观测站点空间分布彩色为地形高度(m),图上黑点为气象观测站

Fig. 1 Distribution of topography elevations (m) and meteorological observation stations in the HRB colors represent topography elevations and spots meteorological observation stations

表1 黑河流域不同区域观测与模拟年降水的比较

Table 1 simulated and observed annual precipitation in different subregions of the HRB

变量	观测/mm	BNU/mm	NON/mm	BM/mm	Grell/mm
上游地区	343.2	238.2	453.1	457.0	371.4
中游地区	170.1	102.8	129.4	129.0	111.7
下游地区	35.8	9.8	22.0	22.0	35.3

表1 黑河流域不同区域观测与模拟年降水的比较

Table 1 simulated and observed annual precipitation in different subregions of the HRB

变量	观测/mm	BNU/mm	NON/mm	BM/mm	Grell/mm
上游地区	343.2	238.2	453.1	457.0	371.4
中游地区	170.1	102.8	129.4	129.0	111.7
下游地区	35.8	9.8	22.0	22.0	35.3

图2 黑河流域年降水(mm)空间分布 (a) BNU; (b) NON;(c);BM;(d) Grell

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of observed and simulated annual precipitation (mm) in the HRB. (a) BNU; (b) NON;(c);BM;(d) Grell

图3 黑河流域5~9月降水(mm)空间分布 (a) BNU; (b) NON;(c); BM;(d) Grell

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of observed and simulated precipitation (mm) in May-September in the HRB (a) BNU; (b) NON;(c); BM;(d) Grell

表2 黑河流域不同区域观测与模拟5~9月降水

Table 2 Simulated and observed precipitation in May-September in different subregions of the HRB

变量	观测/mm	BNU	NON	BM	Grell
上游地区	326.1	230.8	437.0	440.9	355.6
中游地区	137.1	92.2	99.8	99.4	82.4
下游地区	28.8	9.08	10.8	10.7	23.9

表2 黑河流域不同区域观测与模拟5~9月降水

Table 2 Simulated and observed precipitation in May-September in different subregions of the HRB

变量	观测/mm	BNU	NON	BM	Grell
上游地区	326.1	230.8	437.0	440.9	355.6
中游地区	137.1	92.2	99.8	99.4	82.4
下游地区	28.8	9.08	10.8	10.7	23.9

图4 黑河流域不同区域日平均降水(mm/d)年变化 (a)整个流域;(b)上游地区;(c)中游地区; (d)下游地区

Fig. 4 Time series of daily precipitation (mm/d) in different subregions of the HRB. (a) entire HRB;(b) upper reaches of the HRB;(c) middle reaches of the HRB; (d) lower reaches of the HRB.

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摘要

Impact of Different Convective Parameterization on Simulation of Precipitation for the Heihe River Basin