热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报中的应用进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.108

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 1222 -1231. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.108

热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报中的应用进展

梅双丽(

),李勇(

),马杰

国家气象中心，北京 100081

收稿日期:2020-10-10 修回日期:2020-11-15 出版日期:2020-12-10
通讯作者: 李勇 E-mail:meisl@cma.gov.cn;liy@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项“气象要素和重要天气过程延伸期预报关键技术”(YBGJXM（2020）04);国家科技支撑计划项目“10~20天延伸期天气预报技术研究”(2015BAC03B06)

Review of the Application of MJO in the Extended Range Forecast

Shuangli Mei( ),Yong Li( ),Jie Ma

National Meteorological Centre，Beijing 100081，China

Received:2020-10-10 Revised:2020-11-15 Online:2020-12-10 Published:2021-02-09
Contact: Yong Li E-mail:meisl@cma.gov.cn;liy@cma.gov.cn
About author:Mei Shuangli (1982-), female, Suihua City, Heilongjiang Province, Engineer. Research areas include medium and extended range forecast research. E-mail: meisl@cma.gov.cn
Supported by:
the China Meteorological Administration Project for Key Techniques Development in Meteorological Forecasting Operation “Key techniques for forecasting meteorological elements and important weather processes during the extended range” [Grant No.YBGJXM(2020)04];The National Science and Technology Research Program in China “The research on weather forecast technology of 10-20 days extended range”(2015BAC03B06)

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热带季节内振荡是延伸期预报的主要来源，基于热带季节内振荡的延伸期预报研究对业务预报具有重要意义。系统回顾了近几年热带季节内振荡在延伸期降水、温度及其极端事件、台风和季风等方面的预报应用中的最新成果以及热带季节内振荡在主要预报业务中心的应用现状，总结了热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报应用中具有的一定理论支撑；最后分析了热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报应用中面临的预报对象的确立、当前动力模式的模拟、与气象要素的物理联系及影响预报的检验等方面的技术难点，并指出了热带季节内振荡影响预报在集合预报和多模式集成及加强多种季节内振荡对天气影响的研究等方面的未来发展趋势。

关键词: 热带季节内振荡, 延伸期预报, 降水, 业务应用

Tropical intraseasonal oscillation （MJO） is the main source of the extended range forecast. The research of the extended range forecast based on MJO is of great significance for the operational forecast. In this paper， the latest achievements of MJO in the prediction of precipitation， temperature and their extreme events， typhoon and monsoon in the extended range and the operational status of major prediction centers in which MJO is used for real-time monitoring and prediction were reviewed systematically. The theoretical support of MJO in the prediction of the extended range was summarized. Finally， the technical difficulties of MJO in the application of the extended range forecast， such as the establishment of forecast objects， the simulation of MJO by the current dynamic model， the physical connection between MJO and meteorological elements， and the evaluation of MJO's influence forecasting were analyzed， and the future development trends of MJO influence forecast in the ensemble forecast， multi-mode integration and strengthening the research on the influence of multiple seasonal oscillations on the weather were also pointed out.

Key words: MJO, Extended range forecast, Precipitation, Operational application

中图分类号:

P456

图1 天气—气候无缝隙预报示意图^{[

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Fig.1 Schematic diagram of the weather-climate seamless forecast^{[

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图2 北半球热带外周平均降水的概率技巧评分^{[

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横坐标为预报提前时效，各种颜色线条表示S2S多模式集成、11个模式（MULTI、ecmwf、UKMO、NCEP、CNRM、JMA、CMA、KMA、BoM、ECCC、HMCR、ISAC）的评分，评分时段为2017年6月8日至2018年11月1日

Fig.2 Probability Skill Score of the weekly mean precipitation over the Northern Extratropics^{[

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The horizontal axis is the lead time,and various color lines represent the scores of S2S multi-mode integration and 11 modes (MULI，ecmwf,UKMO,NCEP,CNRM,JMA,CMA,KMA，BoM,ECCC,HMCR,ISAC). The scoring period is over the period 8 June 2017 to 1 November 2018

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