<strong>1982</strong>—
  <strong>2005</strong>年青藏高原降水再循环率的模拟研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.027

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 297 -307. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.027

1982— 2005年青藏高原降水再循环率的模拟研究

张宏文 ^1, ³(

),续昱 ^1, ³,高艳红 ²(

)

^1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院/中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730000
^2.复旦大学大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院，上海 200438
^3.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-01-03 修回日期:2020-02-26 出版日期:2020-03-10
通讯作者: 高艳红 E-mail:zhanghw@lzb.ac.cn;gaoyh@fudan.edu.cn
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题“西风—季风协同作用及其影响”(2019QZKK010314);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“西风与季风相互作用和水资源变化”(XDA2006010202)

Simulation Study on Precipitation Recycling Ratio in the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2005

Hongwen Zhang ^1, ³( ),Yu Xu ^1, ³,Yanhong Gao ²( )

^1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Ecology and Environmental Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
^2.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
^3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-01-03 Revised:2020-02-26 Online:2020-03-10 Published:2020-04-10
Contact: Yanhong Gao E-mail:zhanghw@lzb.ac.cn;gaoyh@fudan.edu.cn
About author:Zhang Hongwen (1990-), male, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, Ph.D student. Research areas include numerical simulation of regional climate change. E-mail: zhanghw@lzb.ac.cn
Supported by:
the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program “Evolution and synergy of the westerly-monsoon”(2019QZKK010314);The Special Fund for Strategic Pilot Technology of Chinese Academy of Sciences “Interaction of westerly and monsoon and its impacts on water resources”(XDA2006010202)

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利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4的输出结果驱动区域气候模式WRF3.5版本进行动力降尺度模拟，评估了动力降尺度对青藏高原降水和蒸发的模拟能力，然后结合准熵平衡后向轨迹追踪法（QIBT）研究了CCSM4和WRF模拟的1982—2005年青藏高原降水再循环率的空间分布和季节变化特征，并给出了青藏高原不同土地覆盖类型的降水再循环率。结果表明：相比于驱动数据，动力降尺度模拟能更好地再现青藏高原降水和蒸发的空间分布特征；WRF模拟的青藏高原降水再循环率为32%，表明青藏高原降水主要来源于外部输送水汽的贡献，青藏高原南部流域表现出湿季低、干季高的季节变化特征，而青藏高原北部流域则表现出相反的季节变化特征；相比于驱动数据，WRF能够更精细地呈现青藏高原不同土地覆盖类型的空间分布特征，其中青藏高原草地、灌木和稀疏植被的降水再循环率较高。

关键词: 青藏高原, 降水再循环率, 动力降尺度, CCSM, WRF

A dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model Vision 3.5) driven by a global climate model CCSM4 (The Community Climate System Model Version 4) was adopted, and the downscaling results for the historical period (1982-2005) were evaluated for annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Furthermore, the spatial distribution and seasonal variation characteristics of Precipitation Recycling Ratio (PRR) simulated by CCSM4 and WRF were analyzed with the QIBT (Quasi-isentropic Back-trajectory method). The results show that the historical spatial distributions of annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate over the TP were found to better reproduce in the dynamical downscaling modeling compared to its coarse-resolution forcing. The PRR of the TP is 32% simulated by WRF, with a higher PRR in the wet season and a lower PRR in the dry season for the river basins in the northern TP, but the opposite seasonal variation was found for the river basins in the southern TP. In addition, the different land covers over the TP are more precisely represented in the WRF model, the PRR of grassland, shrubland and sparsely vegetation is higher than that of other land cover types.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, Precipitation recycling ratio, Dynamic downscaling, CCSM, WRF.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 青藏高原地形的空间分布
(a)，(b)分别代表CCSM和WRF中青藏高原地形的空间分布；1~9分别代表塔里木河流域、祁连山区、柴达木盆地、羌塘高原、长江流域、黄河流域、湄公河流域、怒江流域和雅鲁藏布江流域

Fig.1 The topography over the Tibetan Plateau (TP)
(a), (b) show the topography for CCSM and WRF over the TP, respectively; 1~9 stands for the Tarim River Basin, Qilian Mountain, Qaidam Basin, Chang Tang Plateau, Yangtze River, Yellow River, Mekong River, Salween River, and Brahmaputra River, respectively

图2 1982—2005年青藏高原年平均降水率和蒸发率的空间分布
(a)和(d)分别代表GLDAS数据中的年平均降水率和蒸发率; (b)和(e)分别代表CCSM模拟的年平均降水率和蒸发率; (c)和(f)分别代表WRF模拟的年平均降水率和蒸发率

Fig.2 Distributions of annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate over the TP from 1982 to 2005
(a), (d) show annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate in GLDAS; (b), (e) show annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate in CCSM; (c), (f) show annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate in WRF

表1 GLDAS, CCSM和 WRF数据中 1982— 2005年青藏高原年平均降水率和蒸发率的统计量

Table 1 The statistics of annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate averaged over the TP for GLDAS, CCSM and WRF from 1982 to 2005

数据	平均值/(mm/d)		偏差/(mm/d)		均方根误差/(mm/d)		空间相关系数
数据	降水率	蒸发率	降水率	蒸发率	降水率	蒸发率	降水率	蒸发率
GLDAS	1.26	0.94
CCSM	3.21	1.50	1.95	0.56	2.67	0.66	0.82*	0.83*
WRF	2.14	1.00	0.88	0.06	1.31	0.32	0.86*	0.85*

表1 GLDAS, CCSM和 WRF数据中 1982— 2005年青藏高原年平均降水率和蒸发率的统计量

Table 1 The statistics of annual mean precipitation rate and evaporation rate averaged over the TP for GLDAS, CCSM and WRF from 1982 to 2005

数据	平均值/(mm/d)		偏差/(mm/d)		均方根误差/(mm/d)		空间相关系数
数据	降水率	蒸发率	降水率	蒸发率	降水率	蒸发率	降水率	蒸发率
GLDAS	1.26	0.94
CCSM	3.21	1.50	1.95	0.56	2.67	0.66	0.82*	0.83*
WRF	2.14	1.00	0.88	0.06	1.31	0.32	0.86*	0.85*

图3 1982—2005年青藏高原降水再循环率的空间分布
(a)和(b)分别代表CCSM和WRF的模拟结果

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation recycling ratio over the TP from 1982 to 2005
(a), (b) show CCSM and WRF simulations respectively

图4 1982—2005年青藏高原不同流域降水再循环率的季节变化
（a）塔里木河流域，（b）祁连山区,（c）柴达木盆地,（d）羌塘高原,（e）长江流域,（f）黄河流域,（g）湄公河流域,（h）怒江流域,（i）雅鲁藏布江流域

Fig.4 Seasonal change of precipitation recycling ratio in different river basins over the TP from 1982 to 2005
（a） Tarim River Basin，（b） Qilian Mountain，（c） Qaidam Basin，（d） Chang Tang Plateau，（e） Yangtze River，（f） Yellow River，（g） Mekong River，（h） Salween River，（i） Brahmaputra River

图5 1982—2005年青藏高原不同流域蒸发和降水的季节变化
（a）塔里木河流域，（b）祁连山区,（c）柴达木盆地,（d）羌塘高原,（e）长江流域,（f）黄河流域,（g）湄公河流域,（h）怒江流域,（i）雅鲁藏布江流域

Fig.5 Seasonal change of annual mean evaporation and precipitation in different river basins over the TP from 1982 to 2005
（a）Tarim River Basin，（b）Qilian Mountain，（c）Qaidam Basin，（d）Chang Tang Plateau，（e）Yangtze River，（f）Yellow River，（g）Mekong River，（h）Salween River，（i）Brahmaputra Rivery

图 6 1980—2005年青藏高原及周边地区垂直积分的水汽通量空间分布
(a)、(b)和(c)分别代表ERA-Interim、CCSM和WRF的模拟结果

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of the climatology for the vertically integrated water vapor flux over the TP and its surroundings from 1980 to 2005
(a), (b), (c) show the ERA-Interim, CCSM and WRF simulations respectively

图7 土地覆盖类型的空间分布
(a)和(b)分别代表CCSM和WRF所采用的土地覆盖类型数据

Fig.7 Distribution of land cover types over the TP
(a), (b) show the land cover types for CCSM and WRF simulations respectively

图8 CCSM和WRF模拟的1982—2005年青藏高原不同土地覆盖类型的降水再循环率

Fig.8 Precipitation recycling ratio of different land cover types over the TP for the CCSM和WRF from 1982 to 2005

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