地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 319 -330. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.025

青藏高原综合科学考察研究 上一篇    

区域气候模式 CWRF对东亚冬季风气候特征的模拟
王冰笛 1, 2( ),李清泉 1, 2,沈新勇 1, 3( ),董李丽 2,汪方 1, 2,王涛 4,梁信忠 5   
  1. 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏 南京 210044
    2.国家气候中心/中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081
    3.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海），广东 珠海 519082
    4.沈阳区域气候中心，辽宁 沈阳 110166
    5.Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, MD, USA 207 42
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-18 修回日期:2020-02-28 出版日期:2020-03-10
  • 通讯作者: 沈新勇 E-mail:shenxy@nuist.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题“青藏高原热源的长期变化及其与亚非季风系统的关系”(XDA20100304);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题“亚洲水塔变化及其广域效应”(2019QZKK0208)

Climatological Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulated by CWRF Regional Climate Model

Bingdi Wang 1, 2( ),Qingquan Li 1, 2,Xinyong Shen 1, 3( ),Lili Dong 2,Fang Wang 1, 2,Tao Wang 4,Xinzhong Liang 5   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education /Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters，Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology，Nanjing 210044，China
    2.National Climate Center/Climate Research Open Laboratory of China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China
    3.Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)，Guangdong Province, Zhuhai 519082，China
    4.Shenyang Regional Climate Center，Shenyang 110166，China
    5.Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland 20742，USA
  • Received:2020-01-18 Revised:2020-02-28 Online:2020-03-10 Published:2020-04-10
  • Contact: Shen Xinyong E-mail:shenxy@nuist.edu.cn
  • About author:Wang Bingdi (1995-), female, Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, Master student. Research areas include regional climate modeling research. E-mail： 1209596511@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Science’s Sub-project “Long-term changes of heat sources over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their relationship with the Asian-African Monsoon System”(XDA20100304);The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program "The change of Asian water tower and its wide effect"(2019QZKK0208)
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利用1979—2016年欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA-Interim大气再分析资料及美国国家海洋和大气管理局的ERSSTv4海表面温度资料驱动区域气候模式CWRF，对东亚冬季风气候特征进行模拟和评估。结果表明：CWRF模式能够较好地再现东亚冬季风环流的平均特征，包括低层大陆冷高压的位置、中心强度以及高低层风场的变化特征，对北风出现区域和频率的模拟也与再分析资料的结果相符。该模式模拟的中国地区的气温、降水分布与观测基本一致，水汽输送也与再分析资料吻合，来自孟加拉湾的水汽为华南降水所需的水分起着至关重要的作用。对视热源和视水汽汇的模拟结果表明，模式较好地模拟出了东亚大陆与邻近海域的热力差异。分析结果均表明，区域气候模式CWRF具备模拟东亚冬季风主要特征的能力。

关键词: 区域气候模式, 东亚冬季风, 数值模拟, CWRF, 冬季风指数

Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon.

Key words: Regional climate model, East Asian winter monsoon, Numerical simulation, CWRF, Winter monsoon index

中图分类号: 

图1 冬季平均1 000 hPa位势高度和850 hPa温度
（a）模拟；（b）ERA-Interim再分析；阴影填色区为位势高度，单位：gpm；灰色阴影表示地形高度高于2 600 m区域；黑色等值线表示温度，单位：℃，其中虚线表示气温低于0 ℃，实线表示气温等于或高于0 ℃
Fig.1 The mean 1 000 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature in winter
(a) Simulation; (b) ERA-Interim reanalysis; Color shadow refers to potential height, unit: gpm; Gray shadow refers to terrain height higher than 2 600 m; Black contour refers to temperature, unit: ℃；Dotted line denotes air temperature lower than 0 ℃, and solid line denotes air temperature equal to or higher than 0 ℃
图2 冬季平均模拟结果与ERA-Interim再分析资料的空间相关系数垂直分布
(a)位势高度； (b)气温
Fig.2 Vertical distribution of spatial correlation coefficients between winter average simulation results and ERA-Interim reanalysis data
(a) Geopotential height; (b) Temperature
图3 冬季平均风场
（a）200 hPa的模拟；（b）850 hPa的模拟；（c）200 hPa的ERA-Interim再分析；（d）850 hPa的ERA-Interim再分析；彩色阴影表示风速，单位:m/s；灰色阴影表示地形高度高于2 600 m的区域
Fig.3 Winter mean wind
(a) Simulation at 200 hPa；(b) Simulation at 850 hPa；(c) ERA-Interim reanalysis at 200 hPa；(d) ERA-Interim reanalysis at 850 hPa；Color shadow refers to wind speed，unit: m/s; Gray shadow denotes terrain height higher than 2 600 m
图4 冬季平均整层积分的水汽通量和大小
（a）模拟；（b）ERA-Interim再分析；箭头表示水汽通量，阴影填色区表示水汽通量大小
Fig.4 Winter mean vertically integrated vapor transport and its magnitude
(a) Simulation; (b) ERA-Interim reanalysis; Shadow represents vapor transport magnitude
表1 模拟与 ERA-Interim再分析的东亚冬季风指数
Table 1 The East Asian winter monsoon index of simulation and ERA-Interim reanalysis
月份 CWRF ERA-Interim
面积指数（An） 1 0.6037 0.6636
2 0.5653 0.6331
12 0.5972 0.6752
平均 0.5887 0.6573
强度指数（In） 1 2.3332 2.3557
2 2.1434 2.4626
12 2.1670 2.4626
平均 2.2145 2.4777
表2 模拟与 ERA-Interim再分析的东亚冬季风指数的时间相关系数
Table 2 Temporal correlation coefficient between the East Asian winter monsoon index of simulation and ERA-Interim reanalysis
面积指数（An） 强度指数（In）
CWRF与ERA-Interim 0.8942 0.9638
图5 东亚冬季风指数逐年变化曲线
(a) 偏北季风面积指数；(b) 偏北季风强度指数
Fig.5 Annual evolution curve of the East Asian winter monsoon index
(a) Northern monsoon area index; (b) Northern monsoon intensity index
图6 冬季1 000 hPa偏北风频率分布
（a）模拟；（b）ERA-Interim再分析；阴影填色区表示 v<0 m/s的频率，蓝色等值线表示 v<-5 m/s的频率，单位：%
Fig.6 Distribution of northerly wind frequency at 1 000 hPa in winter
(a) Simulation；(b) ERA-Interim reanalysis；Color shadow represents the frequency of v<0 m/s，blue contour represents the frequency of v<-5 m/s，unit：%
图7 冬季平均气温及模拟与观测的相关系数
（a）模拟气温；（b）观测气温；（c）未去趋势的模拟与观测气温的时间相关系数；（d）去趋势的模拟与观测气温的时间相关系数；（e）模拟和观测的差值场
Fig.7 Winter average surface air temperature and correlation coefficient between simulation and observation
(a) Simulation; (b) Observation; (c) Time correlation coefficient of un-detrended simulation and observed air temperature; (d) Time correlation coefficient of detrended simulation and observed air temperature; (e) Difference between simulation and observation
图8 冬季累积降水量及模拟与观测的相关系数
（a）模拟；（b）观测；（c）未去趋势的模拟与观测降水量的时间相关系数；（d）去趋势的模拟与观测降水量的时间相关系数；（e）模拟和观测的差值场
Fig.8 Winter accumulated precipitation and correlation coefficient between simulation and observation
(a) Simulation; (b) Observation; (c) Time correlation coefficient of un-detrended simulation and observed precipitation; (d) Time correlation coefficient of detrended simulation and observed precipitation; (e) Difference between simulation and observation
图9 < Q 1 >和< Q 2 >的空间分布
（a）模拟< Q 1 >；（b）模拟< Q 2 >；（c）ERA-Interim 再分析< Q 1 >；（d）ERA-Interim再分析< Q 2 >
Fig.9 Spatial distribution of < Q 1 > and < Q 2 >
(a) Simulation < Q 1 >; (b) Simulation < Q 2 >; (c) ERA-Interim reanalysis < Q 1 >; (d) ERA-Interim reanalysis < Q 2 >
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