地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 517 -531. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.05.0517

研究论文 上一篇    下一篇

分析Nudging对辽宁地区降尺度的影响
易雪 1( ), 李得勤 2, *( ), 赵春雨 1, 沈历都 1, 敖雪 1, 刘鸣彦 1   
  1. 1. 沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁 沈阳 110166
    2.辽宁省气象台,辽宁 沈阳 110166
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-08 修回日期:2017-12-25 出版日期:2018-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 李得勤 E-mail:yi11xue@163.com;lewen05@hotmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    *中国气象局气候变化专项项目“东北地区高分辨率气候场构建和评估”(编号:CCSF201608);国家自然科学基金项目“基于动态下垫面和Nudging同化技术的高时空分辨率气候场构建”(编号:41675098)资助.

Assessment of Dynamical Climate Downscaling Methods Using Analysis Nudging for Liaoning Area

Xue Yi 1, Deqin Li 2, *( ), Chunyu Zhao 1( ), Lidu Shen 1, Xue Ao 1, Mingyan Liu 1   

  1. 1.Regional Climate Center of Shenyang, Shenyang 110166, China
    2.Liaoning Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110166,China
  • Received:2017-09-08 Revised:2017-12-25 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-06-13
  • Contact: Deqin Li E-mail:yi11xue@163.com;lewen05@hotmail.com
  • About author:

    First author:Yi Xue (1984-), female,Tieling City, Liaoning Province, Engineer. Research areas include land surface processes, data assimilation and climate simulation.E-mail:yi11xue@163.com

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the Climatic Change Research Item of the China Meteorological Administration “Study on the construction and evaluation of high resolution climate field in Northeast China” (No.CCSF201608);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Study on the construction of high spatiotemporal resolution climate field with dynamic underlying surface information and Nudging method”(No.41675098).
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利用分析Nudging方法,选取辽宁省2015年7月和10月作为夏季和秋季代表月份,开展不同分辨率嵌套网格上的分析同化试验,研究在不同分辨率的嵌套网格上使用分析Nudging对地面要素降尺度模拟的影响。结果表明,采用分析Nudging后,可以明显减小WRF模式模拟高空要素与大尺度背景场的差异,使模式在长时间的积分过程中能够与大尺度背景场保持很好的一致性,且在12 km和4 km分辨率上均采用分析Nudging相对于仅在36 km分辨率嵌套上采用分析Nudging效果更好。对于地面要素影响方面,不同分辨率嵌套网格采用分析Nudging相对于控制试验均可以提高地面2 m温度、相对湿度、10 m风速和降水的模拟准确度。总体来看,分析Nudging应用于12 km分辨率上的降尺度效果整体最优,当进一步在4 km分辨率嵌套上使用分析Nudging后,反而使得模式对温度、降水的模拟变差,说明在区域气候降尺度中,考虑大尺度背景场本身的分辨率,不宜在高分辨率嵌套网格上进一步采用分析Nudging。

关键词: 区域气候场, WRF模式, 分析Nudging, 降尺度, 气候模拟

Analysis Nudging in different resolution domains was adopted for dynamic downscaling, and the result of two typical months of July and October, 2015, which represented summer and autumn, was evaluated in Liaoning Province of China. Results showed that significant improvement was present in large-scale background with AN in WRF, such as geopotential height at 500 hPa and relative humidity at 925 hPa. According to the characteristics of error between simulated and observation of surface variables, including temperature and relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m and precipitation, it also showed that analysis nudging at 12 km and 4 km resolution was more effective than at 36 km. However, after using analysis nudging at 4 km, there was no improvement of the precision of surface variables anymore, and the surface temperature and precipitation were even worse than using nudging at 12 km grid. This suggested that, according to the resolution of background filed, nudging in high resolution grid was ineffective after using analysis nudging at the relatively coarse model grid.

Key words: Regional climate, WRF model, Analysis Nudging, Dynamical downscaling, Climate modeling.

中图分类号: 

图1 模式3层嵌套的预报区域
Fig.1 Three domains of the numerical forecast
图1 模式3层嵌套的预报区域
Fig.1 Three domains of the numerical forecast
图2 2015年7月(a)、10月(b)CFSR资料500 hPa平均位势高度(dagpm)和850 hPa平均水平风(m/s)
Fig.2 The average geopotential height (unit: dagpm) at 500 hPa and average horizontal wind (unit:m/s) at 850 hPa of CFSR for (a)July ,(b)October in 2015 in the first domain
图2 2015年7月(a)、10月(b)CFSR资料500 hPa平均位势高度(dagpm)和850 hPa平均水平风(m/s)
Fig.2 The average geopotential height (unit: dagpm) at 500 hPa and average horizontal wind (unit:m/s) at 850 hPa of CFSR for (a)July ,(b)October in 2015 in the first domain
图3 不同降尺度试验模拟的2015年7月((a)~(d))、10月((e)~(h)) 500 hPa位势高度与CFSR资料的RMSE
Fig.3 The RMSE of 500 hPa geopotential height between the simulated from different downscaling experiments and CFSR of July ((a)~(d)) and October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图3 不同降尺度试验模拟的2015年7月((a)~(d))、10月((e)~(h)) 500 hPa位势高度与CFSR资料的RMSE
Fig.3 The RMSE of 500 hPa geopotential height between the simulated from different downscaling experiments and CFSR of July ((a)~(d)) and October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图4 不同降尺度试验模拟的2015年7月(a)~(d)、10月(e)~(h) 925 hPa相对湿度与CFSR资料的RMSE
Fig.4 The RMSE of 925 hPa relative humidity between the simulated from different downscaling experiments and CFSR of July (a)~(d) and October (e)~(h) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图4 不同降尺度试验模拟的2015年7月(a)~(d)、10月(e)~(h) 925 hPa相对湿度与CFSR资料的RMSE
Fig.4 The RMSE of 925 hPa relative humidity between the simulated from different downscaling experiments and CFSR of July (a)~(d) and October (e)~(h) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图5 2015年7月((a)~(d))和10月((e)~(h))不同降尺度试验地面2 m温度与观测的RMSE空间分布图
Fig.5 The RMSE of temperature between different downscaling experiments and observation at 2 m of July ((a)~(d)), October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图5 2015年7月((a)~(d))和10月((e)~(h))不同降尺度试验地面2 m温度与观测的RMSE空间分布图
Fig.5 The RMSE of temperature between different downscaling experiments and observation at 2 m of July ((a)~(d)), October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图6 2015年7月((a)~(d))和10月((e)~(h))不同降尺度试验地面10 m风速与观测的RMSE空间分布图
Fig.6 The RMSE of wind speed between different downscaling experiments and observation at 10 m of July ((a)~(d)), October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图6 2015年7月((a)~(d))和10月((e)~(h))不同降尺度试验地面10 m风速与观测的RMSE空间分布图
Fig.6 The RMSE of wind speed between different downscaling experiments and observation at 10 m of July ((a)~(d)), October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h)AN3
图7 2015年7月((a)~(d))和10月((e)~(h))不同降尺度试验地面2 m相对湿度与观测的RMSE空间分布图
Fig.7 The RMSE of relative humidity between different downscaling experiments and observation at 2 m of July ((a)~(d)),October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h) AN3
图7 2015年7月((a)~(d))和10月((e)~(h))不同降尺度试验地面2 m相对湿度与观测的RMSE空间分布图
Fig.7 The RMSE of relative humidity between different downscaling experiments and observation at 2 m of July ((a)~(d)),October ((e)~(h)) in 2015
(a),(e)CTL;(b),(f)AN1;(c),(g)AN2;(d),(h) AN3
表1 控制试验和3组分析Nudging方案降尺度得到的7月2 m温度、10 m风速和2 m相对湿度的误差统计特征
Table 1 The MEAN, MB, RMSE and r of different downscaling experiments of July in the year 2015
CTL AN1 AN2 AN3
2 m
温度		 MEAN 23.73 23.74 23.8 23.60
MB -0.54 -0.53 -0.48 -0.68
RMSE 2.98 2.44 1.99 2.19
r 0.74 0.85 0.91 0.90
10 m
风速		 MEAN 3.17 2.95 2.87 2.45
MB 0.96 0.73 0.66 0.24
RMSE 2.26 1.79 1.56 1.25
r 0.25 0.44 0.56 0.62
2 m
相对
湿度		 MEAN 73.00 67.97 68.70 68.72
MB 1.62 -3.41 -2.68 -2.66
RMSE 18.56 14.08 12.02 12.17
r 0.49 0.74 0.81 0.82
表1 控制试验和3组分析Nudging方案降尺度得到的7月2 m温度、10 m风速和2 m相对湿度的误差统计特征
Table 1 The MEAN, MB, RMSE and r of different downscaling experiments of July in the year 2015
CTL AN1 AN2 AN3
2 m
温度		 MEAN 23.73 23.74 23.8 23.60
MB -0.54 -0.53 -0.48 -0.68
RMSE 2.98 2.44 1.99 2.19
r 0.74 0.85 0.91 0.90
10 m
风速		 MEAN 3.17 2.95 2.87 2.45
MB 0.96 0.73 0.66 0.24
RMSE 2.26 1.79 1.56 1.25
r 0.25 0.44 0.56 0.62
2 m
相对
湿度		 MEAN 73.00 67.97 68.70 68.72
MB 1.62 -3.41 -2.68 -2.66
RMSE 18.56 14.08 12.02 12.17
r 0.49 0.74 0.81 0.82
表2 控制试验和3组分析Nudging方案降尺度得到的10 月2 m温度,10 m风速和2 m相对湿度的误差统计特征
Table 2 The MEAN, MB, RMSE and r of different downscaling experiments of October in the year 2015
CTL AN1 AN2 AN3
2 m
温度		 MEAN 7.80 8.80 9.51 9.07
MB -2.68 -1.68 -0.97 -1.40
RMSE 4.12 3.07 2.52 2.82
r 0.89 0.93 0.94 0.93
10 m
风速		 MEAN 3.71 3.74 3.50 2.92
MB 1.22 1.25 1.01 0.43
RMSE 2.43 2.15 1.91 1.47
r 0.49 0.60 0.64 0.69
2 m
相对
湿度		 MEAN 56.18 59.60 58.34 60.61
MB -2.07 1.34 0.08 2.35
RMSE 19.75 16.30 15.66 14.85
r 0.60 0.73 0.75 0.78
表2 控制试验和3组分析Nudging方案降尺度得到的10 月2 m温度,10 m风速和2 m相对湿度的误差统计特征
Table 2 The MEAN, MB, RMSE and r of different downscaling experiments of October in the year 2015
CTL AN1 AN2 AN3
2 m
温度		 MEAN 7.80 8.80 9.51 9.07
MB -2.68 -1.68 -0.97 -1.40
RMSE 4.12 3.07 2.52 2.82
r 0.89 0.93 0.94 0.93
10 m
风速		 MEAN 3.71 3.74 3.50 2.92
MB 1.22 1.25 1.01 0.43
RMSE 2.43 2.15 1.91 1.47
r 0.49 0.60 0.64 0.69
2 m
相对
湿度		 MEAN 56.18 59.60 58.34 60.61
MB -2.07 1.34 0.08 2.35
RMSE 19.75 16.30 15.66 14.85
r 0.60 0.73 0.75 0.78
图8 2015年7月((a)~(c))和10月((d)~(f))温度((a),(d))、风速((b),(e))、相对湿度((c),(f))日平均变化趋势(地方时)
Fig.8 Diurnal variations of temperature ((a),(d)),wind speed ((b),(e)),relative humidity ((c),(f)) for July ((a)~(c)), October ((d)~(f)) in the year 2015 (local time)
图8 2015年7月((a)~(c))和10月((d)~(f))温度((a),(d))、风速((b),(e))、相对湿度((c),(f))日平均变化趋势(地方时)
Fig.8 Diurnal variations of temperature ((a),(d)),wind speed ((b),(e)),relative humidity ((c),(f)) for July ((a)~(c)), October ((d)~(f)) in the year 2015 (local time)
图9 2015年7月观测、CFSR和不同降尺度试验月降水量
(a)观测;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
Fig.9 Monthly precipitation from station observations, CFSR and different downscaling experiments in July of 2015
(a)Observation;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
图9 2015年7月观测、CFSR和不同降尺度试验月降水量
(a)观测;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
Fig.9 Monthly precipitation from station observations, CFSR and different downscaling experiments in July of 2015
(a)Observation;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
图10 2015年10月观测、CFSR和不同降尺度试验月降水量
(a)观测;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
Fig.10 Monthly precipitation from station observations, CFSR and different downscaling experiments in October of 2015
(a)Observation;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
图10 2015年10月观测、CFSR和不同降尺度试验月降水量
(a)观测;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
Fig.10 Monthly precipitation from station observations, CFSR and different downscaling experiments in October of 2015
(a)Observation;(b)CFSR;(c)CTL;(d)AN1;(e)AN2;(f)AN3
图11 不同降尺度方案得到的2015月7月29日00时至23时温度(a)、风速(b)、相对湿度(c)、降水(d)日变化特征(UTC时)与实况的对比
Fig.11 Diurnal variation of hourly temperature(a), wind speed(b), relative humidity(c) and precipitation(d) on 29 th July in 2015 between different downscaling experiments and observation
图11 不同降尺度方案得到的2015月7月29日00时至23时温度(a)、风速(b)、相对湿度(c)、降水(d)日变化特征(UTC时)与实况的对比
Fig.11 Diurnal variation of hourly temperature(a), wind speed(b), relative humidity(c) and precipitation(d) on 29 th July in 2015 between different downscaling experiments and observation
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