过去2000年中国区域温度模拟与重建的对比分析

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.12.1318

依据观测/再分析资料及过去2 000年中国区域温度重建资料，对通用地球系统模式（CESM）近2 000年模拟温度进行时空变化的对比分析，检验模式对中国区域温度的模拟性能。结果表明，模拟温度较好地体现了中国区域年平均温度的空间分布型态以及近半个世纪以来的上升趋势；也较好地模拟出了过去2 000年重建资料反映的中国区域平均温度的年代际变化特征；在百年尺度上，模拟的中国区域温度的波动变化与重建资料也基本一致，但华中及青藏地区模拟与重建有所差异。模拟的中国区域平均温度均显示了0—540年、800—1250年和1901—2000年3个暖期，551—721年和1400—1850年2个冷期，与重建结果具有一定的差异。这可能与模式的分辨率、外强迫条件、次网格过程的参数化方案等不确定性有关。

关键词: 过去2 000年, 气候模拟, 温度, 气候重建, 时空变化

Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model.

Key words: Temperature, Past 2 000 years, Climate reconstruction, Spatial-temporal variation, Climate simulation

中图分类号:

P423.2

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摘要

Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the past 2000 years