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地球科学进展  2015, Vol. 30 Issue (12): 1318-    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.12.1318
研究论文     
过去2000年中国区域温度模拟与重建的对比分析
王晓青1,刘健1,2,3*,王志远1
1.虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点,南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023; 2.江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室,南京师范大学数学科学学院,江苏南京210023; 3.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023
Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the past 2000 years
Wang Xiaoqing1, Liu Jian1,2,3*, Wang Zhiyuan1
1.Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Evolution, Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base; School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; 2.Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; 3.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
 全文: PDF(5630 KB)  
摘要:

依据观测/再分析资料及过去2 000年中国区域温度重建资料,对通用地球系统模式(CESM)近2 000年模拟温度进行时空变化的对比分析,检验模式对中国区域温度的模拟性能。结果表明,模拟温度较好地体现了中国区域年平均温度的空间分布型态以及近半个世纪以来的上升趋势;也较好地模拟出了过去2 000年重建资料反映的中国区域平均温度的年代际变化特征;在百年尺度上,模拟的中国区域温度的波动变化与重建资料也基本一致,但华中及青藏地区模拟与重建有所差异。模拟的中国区域平均温度均显示了0—540年、800—1250年和1901—2000年3个暖期,551—721年和1400—1850年2个冷期,与重建结果具有一定的差异。这可能与模式的分辨率、外强迫条件、次网格过程的参数化方案等不确定性有关。

关键词: 过去2 000年气候模拟温度气候重建时空变化    
Abstract:

Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model.

Key words: Temperature    Past 2 000 years    Climate reconstruction    Spatial-temporal variation    Climate simulation
出版日期: 2015-12-10
:  P423.2  
基金资助:

高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目“中世纪暖期与现代暖期全球季风降水变化的对比研究”(编号:20133207110015);国家自然科学基金重点国际合作项目“过去2000年全球季风年代—百年尺度变化及未来预估”(编号:41420104002)资助.

通讯作者: 刘健(1966-),女,四川合江人,教授,主要从事全球变化和古气候模拟研究.      E-mail: jliu@njnu.edu.cn
作者简介: 王晓青(1992-),女,河北任县人,硕士研究生,主要从事古气候模拟研究.E-mail:wxq_gis@126.com
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王晓青,刘健,王志远. 过去2000年中国区域温度模拟与重建的对比分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(12): 1318-.

Wang Xiaoqing, Liu Jian, Wang Zhiyuan. Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the past 2000 years. Advances in Earth Science, 2015, 30(12): 1318-.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.12.1318        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2015/V30/I12/1318

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