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地球科学进展  2009, Vol. 24 Issue (5): 469-476    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.05.0469
综述与评述     
过去千年气候变化的数值模拟研究进展
周天军1,满文敏1,2,张洁1,2
1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京 100029;2.中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049
Progress in Numerical Simulations of the Climate over the Last Millennium
Zhou Tianjun1, Man Wenmin1,2, Zhang Jie1,2
1.LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing  100029, China;
2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing  100049, China
 全文: PDF(17743 KB)  
摘要:

       在阐述千年气候变化研究意义的基础上,围绕着如何利用气候系统模式来对过去千年的气候变化进行归因模拟、以理解其中自然和人为因素的作用问题,总结和评述了国际上相关研究进展,进一步归纳了千年气候变化数值模拟中亟待解决的科学问题,重点包括千年气候演变中自然变率特征时段(即中世纪暖期和小冰期)与人类活动影响时段(即20世纪气候变暖)的气候差别,在中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪气候变暖这3个特征时段上,自然变化和人类活动影响的作用与机制比较、中国过去千年气候演变的模拟等,随后,扼要介绍了国家自然科学基金重大项目“中国地区树轮及千年气候变化研究”之课题“中国千年气候变化数值模拟与机理研究”的主要研究内容。

关键词: 千年气候模拟气候系统模式中世纪暖期小冰期20世纪暖期    
Abstract:

        After emphasizing the role of millennial climate simulation in global warming study, the authors reviewed the recent progresses in the simulations of climate change over the last millennium, along with a description of potential contributions from natural variability and anthropogenic variability. Some scientific issues calling for further studies in millennial climate simulations are documented. The research foci include studies on the difference of natural forcing climate change during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) and the anthropogenic climate change during the 20th century, the mechanisms responsible for the MWP, LIA, and 20th century climate warming, numerical simulation of the millennial climate evolution of China (East Asia).The objectives of National Natural Science Foundation project entitled “Numerical Simulation of the Past Millennial Climate Change over China” are described.

Key words: Millennial climate simulation    Climate system model    Medieval warm period (MWP)    Little ice age (LIA)    20th century global warming.
收稿日期: 2008-11-19 出版日期: 2009-05-10
:  P467  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目“中国千年气候变化数值模拟与机理研究”(编号:40890054)资助.

通讯作者: 周天军     E-mail: zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn
作者简介: 周天军(1969-),男,山东龙口人,研究员,主要从事气候模拟、海气相互作用和东亚气候研究. E-mail:zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn
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周天军,满文敏,张洁. 过去千年气候变化的数值模拟研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(5): 469-476.

Zhou Tianjun, Man Wenmin, Zhang Jie. Progress in Numerical Simulations of the Climate over the Last Millennium. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(5): 469-476.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.05.0469        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2009/V24/I5/469

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