Please wait a minute...
img img
高级检索
地球科学进展  2009, Vol. 24 Issue (5): 461-468    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.05.0461
综述与评述     
CMIP研究计划的进展及其在中国地区的检验和应用前景
王澄海1,吴永萍1,2,崔 洋1
1.兰州大学大气科学学院,教育部半干旱气候变化重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000; 2.扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,江苏 扬州 225002
Evaluating the Progress of the CMIP and Its Application Prospect in China
Wang Chenghai1,Wu Yongping1,2,Cui Yang1
1.School of Atmosphere Sciences, Key Laboratory of  Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2.College of Physics Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China
 全文: PDF(1317 KB)  
摘要:

      由世界气候研究计划(WCRP)推动制定的CMIP计划,是一整套耦合大气环流气候模式的比较计划。该计划旨在通过比较模式的模拟能力来评价模式的好坏,促进气候模式的发展;同时也为生态、水文、社会经济诸学科在全球变化背景下预估未来环境变化提供可靠的科学依据。CMIP计划从AMIP开始,经历了CMIP1、CMIP2、CMIP3几个阶段的发展,并已为模式研究提供了迄今为止时间最长、内容最为广泛的模式资料库。尽管模式的模拟结果仍不可避免的存在一些不足,但世界各国纷纷利用该资料库进行模式发展以及与气候变化相关的多学科研究,为预估未来的环境变化提供了不可替代的科学依据。对其作了简要回顾,并对其在中国地区存在的问题和潜在应用前景作了简要论述。

关键词: CMIP计划耦合气候模式中国及青藏高原发展与检验    
Abstract:

       CMIP, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, established under the auspices of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) includes a series of intercomparison projects for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Its purposes are to evaluate and develop climate models by intercomparison, and to provide reliable scientific basis for ecology, hydrology, social economics to estimate future environmental changes in the various global context as well. CMIP was developed from AMIP in 1995, and experienced three steps with CMIP1, CMIP2 and CMIP3, which has provided the longest so far and the most extensive database for model research. Although the results of the simulation model still included some inevitable uncertainty, countries around the world have applied this database to develop models and research multi-disciplinary associated with climate changes, which has provided an exclusive scientific basis for the forecast of future climate changes. This paper reviewed the project and discussed the present problems and the potential prospects of using this project in China briefly.

Key words: CMIP    Coupled Climate Models    China and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau    Progress and test.
收稿日期: 2008-12-15 出版日期: 2009-05-10
:  P435  
基金资助:

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“我国冰冻圈动态过程及其对气候、水文和生态的影响机理与适应对策”(编号:2007CB411506);国家自然科学基金项目“CMIP模拟结果中青藏高原地区积雪冻土效应的检测及其物理过程分析”(编号:40875050)和“青藏高原冻融过程与亚洲夏季风异常的关系研究”(编号:40575037)资助.

通讯作者: 王澄海      E-mail: wch@lzu.edu.cn
作者简介: 王澄海(1961-),男,甘肃秦安人, 博士,教授,主要从事气候变化和数值模拟研究. E-mail:wch@lzu.edu.cn
服务  
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章  
王澄海

引用本文:

王澄海,吴永萍,崔 洋. CMIP研究计划的进展及其在中国地区的检验和应用前景[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(5): 461-468.

Wang Chenghai,Wu Yongping,Cui Yang. Evaluating the Progress of the CMIP and Its Application Prospect in China. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(5): 461-468.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.05.0461        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2009/V24/I5/461

[1] Ye Duzheng,Ji Jinjun. Prospect the overflying development of atmospheric science[J].Advances in Earth Science,2005,20(10):1 047-1 052.[叶笃正,季劲钧.迎接大气科学发展即将到来的新飞跃[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(10):1 047-1 052.]
[2] Zhao Zongci.Issues on current research of climate change:IUGG2003 Conference[EB/OL].(2003-09-27)[2008-10-18]http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3715.[赵宗慈.当前气候变化研究的热点问题:IUGG2003会议介绍[EB/OL](2003-09-27)[2008-10-18].http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3715.]
[3] Wang Bin,Yu Rucong,Li Weijing. The joint research projects of Global Climate System Model(2001-2005)(The draft for comments[EB/OL].(2002-01-15)[2008-10-18]http://support,iap.ac.cn/download/model/GOALS/FGCM/news/project.pdf.[王斌,宇如聪,李维京.全球气候系统模式联合研究计划(2001—2005)(征求意见稿)[EB/OL].(2002-01-15)[2008-10-18]http://support,iap.ac.cn/download/model/GOALS/FGCM/news/project.pdf.]
[4] Wang Chenghai,Dong Wenjie,Wei Zhigang. Study on relationship between the frozen-thaw progress in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and circulation in East-Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2003,46(3):310-312.[王澄海,董文杰,韦志刚. 青藏高原季节冻融过程与东亚大气环流关系的研究[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(3):310-312.]
[5] Wang Chenghai,Cheng Guodong,Deng Aijun,et al. Numerical simulation on climate of freezing-thawing processes using CCM3[J].Sciences in Clod and Arid Regions,2008,1(1):68-79.
[6] Huang Ronghui. The effect of Qinghai-Xizang plateau on climate environment of China and the world[J]. Advances in Earth Science,1988,(6):25-27.[黄荣辉. 青藏高原对我国及世界气候环境的影响[J].地球科学进展,1988,(6):25-27.]
[7] Zhou Tianjun,Wang Zaizhi,Yu Rucong,et al. The climate system model FGOALS-s using LASG/ IAP spectral AGCM SAMIL as its atmospheric component[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2005,63(5):702-715.[周天军,王在志,宇如聪,等. 基于LASG/ IAP大气环流谱模式的气候系统模式[J].气象学报,2005,63(5):702-715.]
[8] Gates W L,Boyle J S,Covey C, et al.An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I)[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1999,80(1):29-55.
[9] PCMDI. AMIP-Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project[DB/OL].(2008-10-16)[2008-10-16] http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/model_intercomparison.php.
[10] PCMDI. About PCMDI [DB/OL].(2008-10-30)[2008-10-30]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/about/index.php.
[11] PCMDI.Coupled Model Intercomparision Project(CMIP)[DB/OL].(2008-10-30)[2008-10-30]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/index.php.
[12] Covey C,AchutaRao K M,Cubasch U,et al. An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)[J].Global and Planetary Change,2003,37: 103-104.
[13] PCMDI.About the WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Dataset Archive at PCMDI[DB/OL].(2008-11-01)[2008-11-01]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php.
[14] PCMDI.CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and the IPCC AR4[DB/OL].(2008-11-01)[ 2008-11-01]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/index.php.
[15] PCMDI. CMIP3 Climate Model Documentation, References, and Links[DB/OL].(2007-07-17)[2008-11-03]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/ipcc_model_documentation.php.
[16] Kenneth E K,Liang X Z,Zhu J H.Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth century “Warming Hole” in the Central United States?[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19:4 137-4 153.
[17] PCMDI. Data Availability Summary[DB/OL].(2008-02-27)[2008-11-05]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm.
[18] WGCM Climate Simulation Panel1(Meehl G(chair),Covey C,Latif M,et al.) with the assistance of PCMDI (Taylor K E,Covey C,AchutaRao K,et al.). IPCC Standard Output  from Coupled OceanAtmosphere GCMs: Experiments and time periods for which data  should be submitted[DB/OL].(2007-08-16)[2008-11-05]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php.
[19] PCMDI. WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Data:All Variables[DB/OL].[2008-11-05]https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/about/ipccTables.do.
[20] Xu Ying. Conference profile of scenarios working group for validation of IPCC climate effect[EB/OL].(2003-05-31)[2008-11-05]http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp? NewsId=3861.[徐影.IPCC气候影响评估情景工作组会议简介[EB/OL].(2003-05-31)[2008-11-05] http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp? NewsId=3861.]
[21] IPCC.Why does the DDC exist? [DB/OL].(2008-07-30)[2008-11-05].http://www.ipcc-data.org/ddc_exist.html.[22] PCMDI. Diagnostic Subproject[DB/OL].(2007-07-25)[2008-11-06]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/diagnostic_subprojects.php.
[23] PCMDI. Subproject Publication[DB/OL].(2008-11-18)[2008-11-18]http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/subproject_publications.php.
[24] Kimoto M. Simulated change of the east Asian circulation under global warming scenario[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32:L16701.doi.10/029/200592023383.
[25] Yang Junli,Guo Yufu,Wang Bin. Analysis of AGCMs in Asian monsoon precipitation simulations[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2007,12(4): 462.
[26] Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S. Response of the east Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate models simulations and projections under IPCC AR4[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2006,87:1-28.
[27] Zhou Ningfang,Yu Yongqiang,Qian Yongfu. Simulations of the 100 hPa south Asian high and precipitation over east Asia with IPCC Coupled GCMs[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2006,23(3):375-390.
[28] Sun Ying,Ding Yihui. Validation of IPCC AR4 climate models in simulating interdecadal change of East Asian summer monsoon[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2008,66(5):765-780.[孙颖,丁一汇.IPCC AR4气候模式对东亚夏季风年代际变化的模拟性能评估[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):765-780.]
[29] Zhou Tianjun, Yu Rucong. Twentieth century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate Models[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19(22):5 843-5 858.
[30] Jiang Dabang,Wang Huijun,Lang Xianmei. Multimodel ensemble prediction for climate change trend of China under SRES A2 scenario[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(5):776-784.[姜大膀,王会军,郎咸梅.SRES A2情景下中国气候未来变化的多模式集合预测结果[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(5):776-784.]
[31] Liang X Z,Wang W C,Samel A N. Biase in AMIP model simulations of the east China monsoon system[J].Climate Dynamics,2001,17:291-304.

[1] 范丽军;符淙斌;陈德亮;. 统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(3): 320-329.