不同强度热带气旋对中国降水变化的影响

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.07.0747

地球科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 747 -756. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.07.0747

不同强度热带气旋对中国降水变化的影响

杨慧 ¹(

),任福民 ¹(

),杨明仁 ²

1. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081
2. 台湾大学大气科学系，台湾台北，中国

收稿日期:2019-01-25 修回日期:2019-05-05 出版日期:2019-07-10
通讯作者: 任福民 E-mail:1226262133@qq.com;fmren@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“双台风相互作用对中国极端降水的影响”(41675042);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“中国区域持续性强降水事件检测归因”(2018YFC1507703)

Impact of Different Intensity Tropical Cyclones on Precipitation Changes in China

Hui Yang ¹( ),Fumin Ren ¹( ),Ming-Jen Yang ²

1. State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taiwan University, Taiwan Taipei，China

Received:2019-01-25 Revised:2019-05-05 Online:2019-07-10 Published:2019-07-29
Contact: Fumin Ren E-mail:1226262133@qq.com;fmren@163.com
About author:Yang Hui (1990-), female， Zhangye City, Gansu Province, Master student. Research areas include tropical cyclon precipitation. E-mail: 1226262133@qq.com
Supported by:
ect supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Impact of binary cyclone on extreme precipitation over mainland of China"(41675042);The National Key R & D Program of China "Detection attribution of persistent heavy precipitation events in China"(2018YFC1507703)

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基于1960—2017年2 000多个气象台站逐日降水数据和中国气象局热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料集，采用客观天气图分析法（OSAT）识别得到TC降水。研究表明，中国TC降水总体呈显著下降趋势，较12年前的研究结果下降趋势变缓；TC盛期（7～9月）降水占到TC总降水的78.5%，TC盛期降水和TC非盛期降水均呈显著下降趋势。TC降水气候趋势在空间分布上以减少为主要特征，并表现出明显的地域差异，自南向北呈“减少—增多—减少”的分布型，减少趋势中心位于广东和海南。按TC影响期最大强度分级（弱TC、中等强度TC和强TC）研究不同强度TC降水的变化，结果显示，强TC降水表现出显著减少趋势，主要决定着TC总降水的影响范围和趋势等主要特征。进一步分析发现，影响TC频数在1960—2017年呈显著减少趋势，并在1995年发生突变；对1995年前后2个时期的对比研究显示，与前一时期（1960—1994年）相比，后一时期（1995—2017年）影响TC活动频次在20°N以南的海域呈现出显著的减少趋势，减少大值中心位于南海北部，而且这一特征也主要由影响TC中的强TC所决定；强TC的这一变化趋势导致了华南地区尤其是广东和海南TC降水日数的减少，进而使得TC降水减少。

关键词: 热带气旋降水, TC影响期最大强度, 强热带气旋, 降水日数

Based on the daily precipitation data of more than 2 000 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017 and the tropical cyclone (TC) best-track data of the China Meteorological Administration, the TC precipitation was identified by the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT). The research shows that the TC precipitation in China has a significant downward trend, which is slower than that of the research results 12 years ago. The TC precipitation in the peaking season (July to Sepember) accounted for 78.5% of the total TC precipitation. Both TC precipitation in peaking season and other months showed a significant downward trend. The TC precipitation climate trend is mainly characterized by reduction in spatial distribution, and shows obvious regional differences. From south to north, there is a distribution of “decreasing-increasing-decreasing”, and the decreasing trend centers are located in Guangdong and Hainan. According to the maximum intensity in the TC influence period, we classified TCs into three levels (weak TCs, medium intensity TCs and strong TCs) and studied the variations of TC precipitation in different intensities. The results show that the strong TC precipitation shows a significant decrease trend, which mainly determines the influence range and trend of TC total precipitation. Further analysis found that the frequency of affecting TC showed a significant reduction trend during the time period of 1960-2017 and an abrupt shift occurred in 1995. A comparative study of the two periods before and after 1995 showed that compared with the previous period (1960-1994), the frequency of TCs in the latter period (1995-2017) showed a significant decreasing trend in the south of 20°N. The maximum decreasing center was located in the northern part of the South China Sea, and this feature was mainly affected by the strong TC. It was decided that this trend of strong TC led to a decrease trend in the number of precipitation days in South China, especially in Guangdong and Hainan, which led to a decrease trend in TC precipitation.

Key words: Tropical cyclone precipitation, TC maximum intensity during impact period, Strong tropical cyclones, Precipitation days.

中图分类号:

P444

图1 本研究所选中国气象台站空间分布（新疆台站除外）

Fig.1 The geographical distribution of meteorological station stations in China selected in this research (excepted stations in Xinjiang)

图2 中国热带气旋降水气候变化

Fig.2 The change of tropical cyclone precipitation over China

图3 中国热带气旋降水季节分布及气候变化

Fig.3 Seasonal distribution and climate change of tropical cyclone precipitation over China

表1 5个 TC强度指数与 TC降水的相关系数

Table 1 Correlation coefficients between five TC intensity indices and tropical cyclone precipitation

生命期

最大强度

影响期

平均强度

影响期

最大强度

降水第一天平均强度

降水第一天最大强度

0.22

0.04

0.30

0.14

0.15

表1 5个 TC强度指数与 TC降水的相关系数

Table 1 Correlation coefficients between five TC intensity indices and tropical cyclone precipitation

生命期

最大强度

影响期

平均强度

影响期

最大强度

表2 1960— 2017年不同强度 TC统计量

Table 2 The statistics of different intensity TCs during the time period of 1960-2017

	TC	弱TC	中等强度TC	强TC
年均频数	17.6	2.6	6.0	9.0
年均单个TC体积降水/（km³/个）	23.0	9.4	19.5	27.0
年均体积降水/（km³/a）	404.1	24.5	116.8	262.8
体积降水线性趋势/（km³/10a）	-13.7	-2.5	6.6	-17.3

表2 1960— 2017年不同强度 TC统计量

Table 2 The statistics of different intensity TCs during the time period of 1960-2017

	TC	弱TC	中等强度TC	强TC
年均频数	17.6	2.6	6.0	9.0
年均单个TC体积降水/（km³/个）	23.0	9.4	19.5	27.0
年均体积降水/（km³/a）	404.1	24.5	116.8	262.8
体积降水线性趋势/（km³/10a）	-13.7	-2.5	6.6	-17.3

图4 1960—2017年不同强度TC降水线性趋势空间分布（单位：mm/a）

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of the linear trends in precipitation of different intensity TCs during the time period of 1960-2017 (unit: mm/a)

图5 1960—2017年影响TC降水的2个因子线性趋势空间分布

Fig.5 Spatial distributions of the linear trends in the two factors affecting tropical cyclone precipitation

图6 1960—2017年影响中国TC年频数的时间序列

Fig.6 Variations in the annual frequency of TCs influencing China during the time period of 1960-2017

图7 1995—2017年与1960—1994年不同强度影响中国TC年均活动频次差异（通过95%信度水平检验）的空间分布

Fig.7 Spatial distributions of the differences (at the ≥95% significance level) between the annual mean frequencies of influencing China tropical cyclones during the time periods 1995-2017 and 1960-1994

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