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地球科学进展  2015, Vol. 30 Issue (8): 847-854    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.08.0847
973项目研究进展     
登陆台风精细结构的观测、预报与影响评估
端义宏
中国气象科学研究院 灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081
Monitoring and Forecasting of Finescale Structure and Impact Assessment of Landfalling Typhoons
Duan Yihong
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
 全文: PDF(1068 KB)  
摘要:

2015年立项的国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)“登陆台风精细结构的观测、预报与影响评估”将通过进行登陆台风精细结构的野外科学试验,开展登陆台风精细结构的多源资料分析理论和方法研究,探索登陆台风精细化结构演变规律及其对风雨分布的影响机理,发展高分辨率台风数值预报模式关键技术,开展台风灾害影响(预)评估方法研究等,揭示环境因子及其自身内部的多尺度系统相互作用如何影响登陆台风精细化结构的演变,以及精细结构的演变如何影响台风风雨强度和分布,力争提高登陆台风精细结构的模拟、预报和影响评估能力。

关键词: 影响评估登陆台风精细结构数值预报    
Abstract:

The National Basic Research Program of China entitled “monitoring and forecasting of finescale structure and impact assessment of landfalling typhoons” was approved in 2015. Field experiments will be conducted in this program to obtain observational data of finescale structures in typhoons, and analysis theory and methods of multi-source data will be studied. This program will reveal the characteristics of finescale structures and their effects on typhoon winds and rainfall. Key technique in high-resolution numerical typhoon models will be developed, and methods of typhoon-related disaster predictions and assessments will also be investigated. The research in the program aims at revealing how environments and internal multiscale interactions affect finescale structures of landfalling typhoons and how behavior of finescale structures affects the intensity and distribution of typhoon-induced rainfall. In addition, improvement of the skill of numerical modeling and forecasting of finescale structures and impact assessments of landfalling typhoons is expected to be made through the program.

Key words: Impact assessment.    Finescale structure    Landfalling typhoon    Numerical forecast
收稿日期: 2015-05-15 出版日期: 2015-09-15
:  P444  
基金资助:

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“登陆台风精细结构的观测、预报与影响评估”(编号:2015CB452800)资助

作者简介: 端义宏(1963-),男,江苏南京人,研究员,主要从事热带气旋机理和海气相互作用研究.E-mail:duanyh@cma.gov.cn
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引用本文:

端义宏. 登陆台风精细结构的观测、预报与影响评估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(8): 847-854.

Duan Yihong. Monitoring and Forecasting of Finescale Structure and Impact Assessment of Landfalling Typhoons. Advances in Earth Science, 2015, 30(8): 847-854.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.08.0847        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2015/V30/I8/847

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