基于GRAPES的西北地区沙尘暴数值预报模式及其应用研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2005.09.0999

地球科学进展 ›› 2005, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (9): 999 -1011. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2005.09.0999

所属专题： “沙尘天气追因、影响及治理”虚拟专刊；

基于GRAPES的西北地区沙尘暴数值预报模式及其应用研究

李耀辉 ^1,2,3，赵建华 ^1,2，薛纪善 ²，陈德辉 ²，沈学顺 ²，王红 ²，陈勇 ²

1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730020;
2.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081；
3.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2005-05-11 修回日期:2005-09-09 出版日期:2005-09-25
通讯作者: 李耀辉
基金资助:
国家十五重点科技攻关项目“中国气象数值预报技术创新研究”（编号：2001BA607B）；甘肃省气象局高性能计算机开发项目；兰州区域气象中心开放实验室项目；甘肃省气象局“十人计划项目”资助.

STUDY ON SAND-DUST NUMERICAL FORECASTING MODEL COUPLED WITH GRAPES AND ITS APPLICATION IN NORTHWEST CHINA

LI Yaohui ^1,2,3;ZHAO Jianhua ^1,2; XUE Jishan ²; CHEN Dehui ²;SHEN Xueshun ²;WANG Hong ²; CHEN Yong ²

1.Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA, Gansu Lanzhou 730020, China；
2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorology Sciences, Beijing, 100081,China;
3.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute，Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou,730000, China

Received:2005-05-11 Revised:2005-09-09 Online:2005-09-25 Published:2005-09-25

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介绍了中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所和中国气象科学研究院数值预报研究中心合作研制的耦合于GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System）的沙尘暴数值模式GRAPES_SDM。该模式包括沙尘的起沙、传输、吸湿增长、并合、干沉降与云下清洗等详细的物理过程，可以对沙尘暴的起沙和空气中沙尘浓度进行模拟和预报。在此基础上形成了西北地区的沙尘暴数值预报模式系统，并于2005年4月开始在兰州中心气象台试运行，同时还将模式结果与卫星遥感资料反演的沙尘暴监测结果进行了对比验证。以2005年4月17~19日和5月28~29日发生在西北地区的2次强沙尘暴为例，利用GRAPES_SDM对这两次沙尘天气的起沙、传输、扩散直至消散进行了数值模拟。结果表明，模式输出的沙尘时空分布与实况观测和卫星云图监测的沙尘分布范围基本一致，说明该模式系统对西北地区沙尘暴天气的起沙、传输有较好的模拟和预报能力。

关键词: 西北地区, GRAPES_SDM, 沙尘数值预报, 应用

A sand-dust numerical model coupled with GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System)－GRAPES_SDM is introduced. GRAPES_SDM includes such detail physical processes as dust emission, transport, dry deposition and clear sky process, which can simulate and forecast the initial and sand-dust concentration of sand and dust storm. Based on GRAPES_SDM, a numerical model forecasting system is established in northwest China, and is applied to Lanzhou Center Meteorological Observatory for operational prediction of sand and dust storm from April, 2005. Two severe sand and dust storms occurred in 17-19, April, 2005 and 28-29, May, 2005 in northwest China are choosed to simulate there initial, transport, dust emission and disappear. The results show no difference for sand-dust spetial distribution between model outputs and remote sensing monitoring imageres, which indicates that the model system has the capability of forecasting sand and dust storm in northwest China.

Key words: Northwest China, GRAPES_SDM, Operational application

中图分类号:

P425.5+5

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