中国西北地区干旱气象灾害监测预警与减灾技术研究进展及其展望

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.02.0196

地球科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 196 -211. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.02.0196

张强 ^1, ²(

), 姚玉璧 ¹, 李耀辉 ¹, 罗哲贤 ³, 张存杰 ⁴, 李栋梁 ³, 王润元 ¹, 王劲松 ¹, 陈添宇 ⁵, 肖国举 ⁶, 张书余 ², 王式功 ⁷, 郭铌 ¹, 白虎志 ², 谢金南 ², 杨兴国 ⁸, 董安祥 ¹, 邓振镛 ¹, 柯晓新 ⁹, 徐国昌 ¹

1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020
2. 甘肃省气象局, 甘肃兰州 730020
3. 南京信息工程大学,江苏南京 210044
4. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081
5. 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081
6. 宁夏大学,宁夏银川 750021
7. 兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州 730000
8.宁夏回族自治区气象局,宁夏银川 750002
9.上海市气象局,上海 200030

出版日期:2015-03-08
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及其影响与对策”第六课题“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害风险评估与对策研究”（编号： 2013CB430206）;国家自然科学基金重点项目“黄土高原陆面过程观测试验研究”(编号： 40830957)资助

Research Progress and Prospect on the Monitoring and Early Warning and Mitigation Technology of Meteorological Drought Disaster in Northwest China

Qiang Zhang ^1, ²( ), Yubi Yao ¹, Yaohui Li ¹, Zexian Luo ³, Cunjie Zhang ⁴, Dongliang Li ³, Runyuan Wang ¹, Jinsong Wang ¹, Tianyu Chen ⁵, Guoju Xiao ⁶, Shuyu Zhang ², Shigong Wang ⁷, Ni Guo ¹, Huzhi Bai ², Jinnan Xie ², Xingguo Yang ⁸, Anxiang Dong ¹, Zhenyong Deng ¹, Xiaoxin Ke ⁹, Guochang Xu ¹

1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster, China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster, Lanzhou 730020, China
2. Gansu Provincial Meteorological Service, Lanzhou 730020, China
3. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4. National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081, China
5. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
6. Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
7. College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
8. Ningxia (Hui Autonomous Region Meteorological Service, Yinchuan 750002, China
9. Shanghai Municipal Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China

Online:2015-03-08 Published:2015-02-20

全文 ( 39 ) 下载PDF ( 1501 )

干旱灾害是制约中国西北地区社会经济发展、农业生产和生态文明建设的重要自然灾害,而且随着气候变暖西北地区极端干旱事件发生频率和强度均呈增加趋势,影响不断加重。 “中国西北干旱气象灾害监测预警及减灾技术研究”成果是在数十个国家级科研项目的支持下,经过过去20年的理论研究和应用技术开发所取得的一系列创新性成果。该成果对西北干旱形成机理及重大干旱事件发生、发展的规律取得了新认识,尤其是发现了形成西北干旱环流模态的4种主要物理途径;研制了西北干旱预测的新指标、干旱监测的新指数及监测农田蒸散的新设备,明显提高了干旱监测准确性和针对性;提出了山地云物理气象学新理论,研发了水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区——祁连山空中云水资源开发利用技术;发现了干旱半干旱区陆面水分输送和循环的新规律,揭示了绿洲自我维持的物理机制;认识了干旱气候变化对农业生态系统影响的新特征,建立了旱作农业对干旱灾害的响应关系;开发了旱区覆膜保墒、集雨补灌、垄沟栽培、适[JP2]宜播期等应对气候变化的减灾技术,为西北实施种植制度、农业布局及结构调整和农业气候资源高效利用提供了科学方案。该成果的完成提升了中国干旱防灾减灾技术水平,培养了中国干旱气象科技队伍,推进了西北地区干旱气象业务服务能力,对西北地区社会经济发展、农业现代化和生态文明建设等方面起到了重要的促进作用。在此基础上,展望了西北地区干旱气象科学研究中迫切需要、有可能突破的主要领域。

关键词: 西北地区, 干旱气象灾害, 形成机理, 监测预警方法, 减灾技术

Drought disaster is an important natural factor to restrict the socioeconomic development, agricultural production and ecological civilization construction in Northwest China.With the global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme drought events show a significantly increasing trend and the impact of drought increases continually. The results of “the research on monitoring and early warning and mitigation technology of meteorological drought disaster” have been obtained based on the support from dozens of national research projects in the past two decades. These projects have received a series of innovative achievements by long-term theoretical research and applied technology development through the continuous study around the formation mechanism, monitoring and early warning methods of meteorological drought and its impact on agricultural industry, the drought disaster prevention and mitigation technology and other relative scientific issues as well. The major achievements are as follows: New knowledge on the drought formation mechanism and the law of occurrence and development of severe drought events, especially the discovery of four main physical ways of drought circulation modals were obtained in Northwest China. The new drought prediction and monitor indices, and the new equipment of monitoring field evapotranspiration were developed in Northwest China, and these obviously improved drought monitoring accuracy and pertinence. A new meteorological theory of mountain cloud physics was proposed. The exploitation and utilization technology of air cloud water resources were developed over Qilian Mountain, which is the national key ecological function zone with water conservation. The new laws of land surface moisture transport and recycling in arid and semiarid areas, and the physical mechanism of selfsustaining of oasis were revealed. The new characteristics of impact of arid climate change on agro-ecological system were recognized. The response relationship of rain-fed agriculture to drought disaster was set up. The mitigation disaster technologies to cope with climate change in arid area were developed by using coated soil conservation, rainwater harvesting for supplemental irrigation, furrow cultivation, suitable sowing date and so on. These technologies provided a scientific scheme to the implementation of cropping systems, layout and structural adjustment of agriculture and efficient utilization of agricultural climate resources in Northwest China. The above achievements promote the technological level on drought disaster prevention and mitigation, cultivated research teams working on arid meteorological science and raised the service ability of arid meteorology in Northwest China. These results also play an important role in promoting socio-economic development, agricultural modernization and construction of ecological civilization. In addition, the authors covered the main fields which are in urgent need to be studied and possible breakthrough might be made in arid meteorology research in Northwest China in the future.

Key words: Northwest China, Drought disaster, Formation mechanism, Monitoring and early-warning methods, Mitigation disaster technology.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 青藏高原加热场强度与西北干旱关系示意图

Fig.1 The schematic of relationship between the heating field strength over Tibet Plateau and the drought in Northwest

图2 强迫涡源(a)和强迫热源(b)的空间分布

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of the forced vortex source (a) and the forced heat source (b)

图3 临近绿洲的荒漠近地层大气逆湿(a)和负水汽通量(b)变化

Fig.3 The changes of desert surface atmospheric humidity inversion (a) and negative water vapor flux (b)near the oasis

图4 降露过程与气象因子的关系

Fig.4 The relationship between the dew process and meteorological factors

图5 非降水性陆面水分平衡的日变化特征

Fig.5 Diurnal variations the land surface water balance of non precipitation

图6 绿洲系统与外界相互作用示意图

Fig.6 The Schematic of interaction of oasis system with the outside world

图7 祁连山区地形云形成的物理模型示意图

Fig.7 The schematic of physical model of terrain cloud formation in Qilian Mountains

图8 冬季增温与土壤pH值增加的关系

Fig.8 The relationship between the winter warming and the increased pH of soil

图9 冬季增温与土壤全盐增加的关系

Fig.9 The relationship between the winter warming and the increased total salt of soil

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