地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 1181 -1192. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.11.1181.

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全球变暖下热带降水变化研究回顾与挑战 *
黄平 1, 2, 3( ), 周士杰 2, 4   
  1. 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所,季风系统研究中心, 北京 100190
    2.中国科学院大气物理研究所,大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
    3. 全球变化与可持续发展协同创新中心, 北京 100875
    4.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-06 修回日期:2018-10-10 出版日期:2018-11-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“热带区域气候对全球变暖的响应机制”(编号:41722504);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助.

Advances and Challenges in the Study on the Tropical Rainfall Changes Under Global Warming *

Ping Huang 1, 2, 3( ), Shijie Zhou 2, 4   

  1. 1.Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China
    2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029, China
    3.Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing 100875, China
    4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2018-06-06 Revised:2018-10-10 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-12-21
  • About author:

    First author:Huang Ping (1982-), male, Zizhong County, Sichuan Province, Professor. Research areas include tropical air-sea interaction and climate change. E-mail: huangping@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    Foundation item:Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Mechanisms of the response of tropical regional climate to global warming"(No.41722504);The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

热带降水是全球能量水份循环的重要环节。热带降水在全球变暖下的变化是目前国际上广泛关注的气候变化问题之一。回顾了近30年来关于热带降水在观测中的变化以及基于气候模式预估未来变化方面的研究进展;总结了目前在热带区域降水变化机制方面的国际前沿研究进展及研究方法;最后讨论了目前气候模式预估未来区域降水变化所遇到的模式间差异大等影响预估可信度的问题,展望未来研究中面临的主要挑战。

Since tropical rainfall is important in the global energy and hydrologic cycle, the tropical rainfall changes under global warming have attracted extensive attention around the world in recent decades. The advances in the observational studies and model projection for the tropical rainfall changes under global warming were reviewed here. The frontiers in the mechanism of regional tropical rainfall changes and the approaches of rainfall change research are summarized. The large intermodel spread in the multi-model projections, the sources of uncertainty and the methods to reduce the uncertainty were also introduced. Finally, the challenges about the tropical rainfall changes were discussed.

中图分类号: 

图1 全球变暖背景下CMIP3模式模拟的水汽、降水、辐射、温度等变量的变化之间的关系 [ 23 ]
(a)温度与水汽的关系;(b)温度与降水的关系;(c)地表净向下辐射与降水的关系;(d)大气净辐射冷却与降水的关系
Fig.1 The relationship between projected changes and projected temperature and rainfall changes simulated in the CMIP3 models under global warming [ 23 ]
(a) Temperature change vs. column-integrated water vapor change; (b)Temperature change vs. precipitation change;(c)Precipitation change vs. net downward radiation change at the surface; (d) Precipitation change vs. net radiative cooling change of the atmosphere
图1 全球变暖背景下CMIP3模式模拟的水汽、降水、辐射、温度等变量的变化之间的关系 [ 23 ]
(a)温度与水汽的关系;(b)温度与降水的关系;(c)地表净向下辐射与降水的关系;(d)大气净辐射冷却与降水的关系
Fig.1 The relationship between projected changes and projected temperature and rainfall changes simulated in the CMIP3 models under global warming [ 23 ]
(a) Temperature change vs. column-integrated water vapor change; (b)Temperature change vs. precipitation change;(c)Precipitation change vs. net downward radiation change at the surface; (d) Precipitation change vs. net radiative cooling change of the atmosphere
图2 全球变暖下纬向平均的热带环流变化和热带降水各分量变化的季节循环
(a)500 hPa垂直速度变化;(b)动力项;(c)热力项;(d)两者之和 [ 10 ]
Fig.2 Seasonal cycle of circulation change and decomposition of precipitation change under global warming
(a) Circulation change at 500 hPa; (b) Dynamic component;(c) Thermodynamic component;(d) The sum of dynamic and thermodynamic components [ 10 ]
图2 全球变暖下纬向平均的热带环流变化和热带降水各分量变化的季节循环
(a)500 hPa垂直速度变化;(b)动力项;(c)热力项;(d)两者之和 [ 10 ]
Fig.2 Seasonal cycle of circulation change and decomposition of precipitation change under global warming
(a) Circulation change at 500 hPa; (b) Dynamic component;(c) Thermodynamic component;(d) The sum of dynamic and thermodynamic components [ 10 ]
图3 全球变暖下热带降水年平均变化的动力和热力分量
(a)动力项;(b)热力项;(c)两者的总和;(a)绿色曲线为热力项的-3×10 -3 Pa/(s·10 2)等值线;(c)红色曲线为降水变化0.4 mm/d等值线 [ 8 ]
Fig.3 The decomposition of annual-mean rainfall changes under global warming
(a)The dynamic component; (b) Thermodynamic components; (c) The sum of dynamic and thermodynamic components. In (a), the green curves are the -3×10 -3 Pa/(s·10 2) contour of thermodynamic component; In (c), the red curves are the 0.4 mm/d contour of rainfall change [ 8 ]
图3 全球变暖下热带降水年平均变化的动力和热力分量
(a)动力项;(b)热力项;(c)两者的总和;(a)绿色曲线为热力项的-3×10 -3 Pa/(s·10 2)等值线;(c)红色曲线为降水变化0.4 mm/d等值线 [ 8 ]
Fig.3 The decomposition of annual-mean rainfall changes under global warming
(a)The dynamic component; (b) Thermodynamic components; (c) The sum of dynamic and thermodynamic components. In (a), the green curves are the -3×10 -3 Pa/(s·10 2) contour of thermodynamic component; In (c), the red curves are the 0.4 mm/d contour of rainfall change [ 8 ]
图4 全球变暖下,各分量对ENSO引起的热带降水异常变化贡献示意图
Fig.4 Diagram illustrating the formation mechanisms of the changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability
图4 全球变暖下,各分量对ENSO引起的热带降水异常变化贡献示意图
Fig.4 Diagram illustrating the formation mechanisms of the changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability
图5 模式预估的未来热带太平洋降水在修订前后的对比
(a)模式预估的未来降水(填色),1 000 hPa风和相对海温的变化;(b)利用EPR方法估计的预估的未来降水(填色),风和相对海温变化的共同偏差;(c)经过校订之后的降水(填色),1 000 hPa风和相对海温的变化 [ 76 ]
Fig.5 The comparison between the corrected and original precipitation change
(a) Projected changes in precipitation (shaded), 1 000 hPa wind and relative SST; (b) Estimated change biases in precipitation (shaded) and 1 000 hPa wind; (c) Corrected changes in precipitation (shaded), 1 000 hPa wind (vectors), and relative SST [ 76 ]
图5 模式预估的未来热带太平洋降水在修订前后的对比
(a)模式预估的未来降水(填色),1 000 hPa风和相对海温的变化;(b)利用EPR方法估计的预估的未来降水(填色),风和相对海温变化的共同偏差;(c)经过校订之后的降水(填色),1 000 hPa风和相对海温的变化 [ 76 ]
Fig.5 The comparison between the corrected and original precipitation change
(a) Projected changes in precipitation (shaded), 1 000 hPa wind and relative SST; (b) Estimated change biases in precipitation (shaded) and 1 000 hPa wind; (c) Corrected changes in precipitation (shaded), 1 000 hPa wind (vectors), and relative SST [ 76 ]
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