国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.04.0436

地球科学进展

2009, Vol. 24

Issue (4): 436-443 DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.04.0436

全球变化研究

国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

曾静静,曲建升,张志强

中国科学院国家科学图书馆兰州分馆/中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心，甘肃兰州 730000

Review of the International Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenario Programs

Zeng Jingjing, Qu Jiansheng, Zhang Zhiqiang

Lanzhou Branch of National Science Library，Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, CAS, Lanzhou 730000，China

全文: PDF(1015 KB)

摘要：

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上，对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主，即到21世纪末，将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内；②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内，但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大；③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时，国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则，倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标，但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。

关键词： 全球变暖; 气候变化; 气候政策; 温室气体减排; 二氧化碳

Abstract:

On the basis of sorting out and introducing the greenhouse gas emission reduction program, targets and assumptions that were put forward by the major international organizations, countries, research institutions and some scholars, the paper summarized, compared and comprehensively analyzed the main GHG emission reduction targets, atmospheric concentrations targets of GHG, and temperature control targets of the current international GHG mitigation program. The results revealed that: ①the general control goal of temperature increment proposed by international organizations and major countries was 2 ℃, that is, by the end of the 21st century, the air temperature will be controlled at no higher than 2℃ at the level of preindustrial revolution; ② the GHG mitigation program proposed by international organizations and major countries generally tended to control the atmospheric concentrations of GHG at 450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e, and there were still large differences in the specific allocation of responsibilities, mitigation measures and emission reductions among each mitigation program; ③when determining the GHG emission reduction targets and allowances, the international organizations and major countries were generally in accordance with the “common but differentiated” principle, tending to set emission reduction targets for developed countries. However however, individual programs considered it necessary for developing countries to take quantified emission reduction commitment obligations.

Key words:
Global warming Climate change Climate policy Greenhouse gas mitigation Carbon dioxide.

收稿日期: 2009-02-15 出版日期: 2009-04-10

X16

基金资助:

中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目“中国参与国际CO₂减排的国家方案设计”（编号：KZCX2-YW-Q1-10）；国家自然科学基金项目“我国欠发达地区人口温室气体排放行为与排放需求研究”（编号：40801232）资助.

通讯作者: 曾静静 E-mail: zengjj@llas.ac.cn

作者简介: 曾静静（1981-），女，重庆人，助理研究员，主要从事全球环境变化战略情报研究. E-mail:zengjj@llas.ac.cn

	服务
	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	曾静静
	曲建升
	张志强

引用本文:

曾静静,曲建升,张志强. 国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(4): 436-443.

Zeng Jingjing, Qu Jiansheng, Zhang Zhiqiang. Review of the International Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenario Programs. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(4): 436-443.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.04.0436 或 http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2009/V24/I4/436

[1] Zhang Zhiqiang，Qu Jiansheng，Zeng Jingjing. A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences，2008，63(7): 693-702.[张志强，曲建升，曾静静.温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析[J].地理学报，2008，63(7): 693-702.]
[2] IPCC. 气候变化2007年：综合报告[R/OL]. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_cn.pdf. 2007.
[3] OECD. Environmental Outlook to 2030[R/OL]. http://oberon.sourceoecd.org/,2008-03.
[4] Council of the European Union. Brussels European Council presidency conclusions[R/OL]. http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/07/st07/st07224-re01.en07.pdf,2007.
[5] UNDP. 2007/2008人类发展报告[R/OL]. http://www.un.org/chinese/esa/hdr2007-2008/hdr_20072008_ch_complete.pdf.2007.
[6] The Committee on Climate Change. Government advised to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% in 2050[EB/OL]. http://www.theccc.org.uk/downloads/CCC%202050 TargetPRESSRELEASE07.10.08.pdf,2008-10-06.
[7] HM Government. Draft Climate Change Bill[R/OL]. http://www.defra.gov.uk/,2007-03.
[8] Department of Environment，Food，and Rural Affairs. Climate Change Act 2008[R/OL]. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/uk/legislation/docs.htm,2007-11-27.
[9] US Department of State. Global Climate Change Initiative[R/OL]. http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/fs/2002/12956.htm,2002.[ZK)]
[10] Qu Jiansheng，Sun Chengquan. Political contents of the global change studies: Taking the policies on climate of US as an example[J].World SCI-TECH R&D,2004，26(2): 78-83.[曲建升，孙成权. 全球变化研究中的科学政治化倾向——以美国气候政策为例[J].世界科技研究与发展，2004，26(2): 78-83.]
[11] Pew Center on Global Climate Change. A look at emission targets[EB/OL]. http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/targets,2008.
[12] Department of Climate Change. Carbon pollution reduction scheme green paper[R/OL]. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/greenpaper/report/pubs/greenpaper.pdf,2008-07.
[13] Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development. Climate plan 2004[R/OL]. http://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/PLANCLIMATANGLAIS.pdf,2004.
[14] Government of Japan. Submission on sectoral approach[R/OL]. http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/japan_sectoralapproach_rev.pdf,2008-05.
[15] Garnaut R. The Garnaut Climate Change Review[R/OL]. http://www.garnautreview.org.au/,2008-09.
[16] Government of India. National Action Plan on Climate Change[R/OL]. http://pmindia.nic.in/Pg01-52.pdf,2008-06.
[17] WWF. A vision for leadership by industrialized nations-climate change at the G8 Summit 2008 in Japan[R/OL]. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_g8_position_paper_final_250608.pdf,2008.
[18] WWF. Climate change: Faster, stronger, sooner[R/OL]. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_science_paper_october_2008.pdf,2008.
[19] CAN. A Viable Framework for Preventing Dangerous Climate Change-CAN Discussion Paper[R/OL]. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/candpframework.pdf. 2003.
[20] Baer P，Athanasiou T，Kartha S. The right to development in a climate constrained world: The greenhouse development rights framework[R/OL]. http://www.boell.de/downloads/gdr_klein_en.pdf,2007-11.
[21] The Climate Group. Breaking the Climate Deadlock: A Global Deal for Our Low-Carbon Future[R/OL]. http://www.theclimategroup.org/assets/resources/June 2008 BTCDReportChinese.pdf,2008-06-27.
[22] The Basic Peoject. The Sao Paulo proposal for an agreement on future climate policy[R/OL]. http://www.basic-project.net/data/final/Paper17Sao%20Paulo%20Agreement%20on%20Future%20International%20Climate%85.pdf, 2006-08.
[24] HM Treasury. Stern review: the economics of climate change[R/OL]. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/6520.htm. 2006.
[23] Chen Yin. The Sao Paulo proposal's key elements[J].Advances in Climate Research，2007，3(3): 177-182.[陈迎. 圣保罗案文的基本要点[J]. 气候变化研究动态，2007，3(3): 177-182.]
[25] Meinshausen M，Hare B，Wigley T M L,et al. Multi-gas emission pathways to meet climate targets[J].Climatic Change, 2006(75): 151-194.
[26] Stern N. Key Elements of a Global Deal on Climate Change[R/OL]. http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/granthamInstitute/publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_30Apr08.pdf, 2008-04.
[27] McKibbin W J，Wilcoxen P J. Building on Kyoto: Towards a realistic climate change agreement[R/OL]. http://www.msgpl.com.au/download/mckibbinwilcoxenfinalANU.pdf, 2008-06.
[28] Bent Sørensen. Pathways to climate stabilization[J].Energy Policy，2008,36(9) ：3 505-3 509.
[29] Qu Jiansheng, Zeng Jingjing, Zhang Zhiqiang. Review of the international main greenhouse gases emission datebases[J].Advances in Earth Science,2008,23(1):47-54.[曲建升，曾静静，张志强.国际主要温室气体排放数据集比较分析研究[J].地球科学进展，2008,23(1):47-54.]

[1]	周洪建. 当前全球减轻灾害风险平台的前沿话题与展望——基于2017年全球减灾平台大会的综述与思考[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(7): 688-695.
[2]	李兴文, 张鹏, 强小科, 敖红. 三门峡会兴沟剖面黄土—古土壤序列的岩石磁学研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(5): 513-523.
[3]	何霄嘉, 王敏, 冯相昭. 生态系统服务纳入应对气候变化的可行性与途径探讨[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(5): 560-567.
[4]	吴佳, 高学杰, 韩振宇, 徐影. 基于有效温度指数的云南舒适度变化分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(2): 174-186.
[5]	程根伟, 范继辉, 彭立. 高原山地土壤冻融对径流形成的影响研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(10): 1020-1029.
[6]	王聪强, 杨太保, 许艾文, 冀琴, MihretabG.Ghebrezgabher. 近25年唐古拉山西段冰川变化遥感监测[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(1): 101-109.
[7]	田彪, 丁明虎, 孙维君, 汤洁, 王叶堂, 张通, 效存德, 张东启. 大气CO研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(1): 34-43.
[8]	史培军, 王爱慧, 孙福宝, 李宁, 叶涛, 徐伟, 王静爱, 杨建平, 周洪建. 全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(8): 775-781.
[9]	焦念志, 李超, 王晓雪. 海洋碳汇对气候变化的响应与反馈[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(7): 668-681.
[10]	董文杰, 袁文平, 滕飞, 郝志新, 郑景云, 韦志刚, 丑洁明, 刘昌新, 齐天宇, 杨世莉, 阎东东, 张婧. 地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合及应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(12): 1215-1219.
[11]	裴巧敏, 马玉贞, 胡彩莉, 李丹丹, 郭超, 刘杰瑞. 全球典型地区MIS 5e阶段气候特征研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(11): 1182-1196.
[12]	林霄沛, 许丽晓, 李建平, 罗德海, 刘海龙. 全球变暖“停滞”现象辨识与机理研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 995-1000.
[13]	何志斌, 杜军, 陈龙飞, 朱喜, 赵敏敏. 干旱区山地森林生态水文研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 1078-1089.
[14]	赵进平, 史久新, 王召民, 李志军, 黄菲. 北极海冰减退引起的北极放大机理与全球气候效应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(9): 985-995.
[15]	李育, 朱耿睿. 三大自然区过渡地带近50年来气候类型变化及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(7): 791-801.

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed