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地球科学进展  2020, Vol. 35 Issue (9): 962-977    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.076
全球变化研究     
南大洋海温长期变化研究进展
龙上敏1,2(),刘秦玉3,4,郑小童3,4,程旭华1,2,白学志1,2,高臻2
1.河海大学,自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098
2.河海大学,海洋学院,江苏 南京 210098
3.中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室,海洋与大气相互作用与气候实验室,山东 青岛 266100
4.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室,山东 青岛 266100
Research Progress of Long-term Ocean Temperature Changes in the Southern Ocean
Shangmin Long1,2(),Qinyu Liu3,4,Xiaotong Zheng3,4,Xuhua Cheng1,2,Xuezhi Bai1,2,Zhen Gao2
1.Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China
2.College of Oceanography,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China
3.Physical Oceanography Laboratory of Ocean University of China,Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate Laboratory,Qingdao 266100,China
4.Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266100,China
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摘要:

近几十年来,南大洋是全球吸热最显著、存储热量最多的洋盆,但其海温变化的机制以及演变过程至今还不清楚,因此南大洋成为近年来气候变化研究的热点海域。通过回顾有关南大洋海温长期变化的观测事实和模式模拟的研究结果,介绍了前人研究中有关风场、表面热通量、海冰等不同因素在南大洋海温变化中的作用,以及海洋平均环流、海洋涡旋等海洋内部动力过程对南大洋海温的调整机制,并提出从海洋对外辐射强迫的快、慢时间尺度响应这一角度来全面理解南大洋海温的变化机理和演变过程。最后结合目前的研究现状和未来需要深入研究的问题进行了探讨和展望,以期推动在气候变化背景下对南大洋内部响应过程本质的认识和其气候效应方面的研究。

关键词: 南大洋气候变化快、慢响应上升流涡旋    
Abstract:

In the recent decades, a large amount of anthropogenic heat has been absorbed and stored in the Southern Ocean. Results from observations and climate models' simulations both show that the Southern Ocean displays large warming in the upper and subsurface ocean that maximizes at 45°~40°S. However, the underlying mechanisms and evolution processes of the Southern Ocean temperature changes remain unclear, leaving the Southern Ocean to be a hotspot of climate change studies in the recent years. The present study summarized the current progress in the observations and numerical modeling of long-term temperature changes in the Southern Ocean. The effects of changes in wind, surface heat flux, sea-ice and other factors on the ocean temperature changes were presented, along with the introduction to the role of oceanic mean circulation and eddies. The present study further proposed that a deepening of the understanding in the Southern Ocean temperature change may be achieved by investigating the fast and slow responses of the Southern Ocean to external radiative forcing, which are respectively associated with the fast adjustments of the ocean mixed-layer and the slow evolution of the deep ocean. Specifically, the striking and fast mixed-layer ocean warming north of 50°S is tightly related to the surface heat absorption over upwelling regions and wind-driven meridional heat transport, resulting in enhanced warming around 45°S. While in the slow response of the Southern Ocean temperature, the enhanced ocean warming shifts southward and downward, mainly associating with the heat transfer from oceanic eddies. The Southern Ocean temperature has pronounced climatic effects on many aspects, such as global energy balance, sea-level rise, ocean stratification changes, regional surface warming and atmospheric circulation changes. However, large model biases/deficiencies in simulating the present-day climatology and essential ocean dynamic processes last in generations of climate models, which are the main challenge in advancing our understanding in the mechanisms for the Southern Ocean climate changes. Therefore, to achieve reliable future projections of the Southern Ocean climate, substantial efforts will be needed to improve the model performances and physical understanding in the relative role of various processes in ocean temperature changes at different time scales.

Key words: Southern Ocean    Climate change    Fast and slow responses    Upwelling    Eddies.
收稿日期: 2020-07-16 出版日期: 2020-10-28
ZTFLH:  P728.1  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“热带印度洋SST对全球变暖的慢响应过程”(41706026);国家重点研发计划项目“海洋—海冰参数和物理过程的观测数据集构建与模式评估”(2017YFA0604600)
通信作者: 龙上敏     E-mail: smlong@hhu.edu.cn
作者简介: 龙上敏(1988-),男,湖南永州人,讲师,主要从事气候变化和海洋环流研究. E-mail:smlong@hhu.edu.cn
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引用本文:

龙上敏,刘秦玉,郑小童,程旭华,白学志,高臻. 南大洋海温长期变化研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(9): 962-977.

Shangmin Long,Qinyu Liu,Xiaotong Zheng,Xuhua Cheng,Xuezhi Bai,Zhen Gao. Research Progress of Long-term Ocean Temperature Changes in the Southern Ocean. Advances in Earth Science, 2020, 35(9): 962-977.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.076        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2020/V35/I9/962

图1  南大洋水文环境及动力过程示意图(据参考文献[11]修改)
图2  纬向平均的南大洋海温在1950—2019年和1980—2019年的变化趋势图(a)和(c)来自中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)的海温重构数据[31],(b)和(d)来自英国气象局的EN4.2.1数据[32];图中填色为变化趋势,等值线为1950—1999年平均的气候态,图2a中的绿色等值线为CMIP6多模式集合平均的历史时期模拟结果(1950—2014年海温变化趋势)
图3  SST和表面2 m气温(TAS)在4倍CO2突增理想实验中的变化图实线为全球平均;虚线为南大洋平均;垂直虚线为第10年的位置
图4  快、慢响应中纬向平均的海温(Temp)和经向流函数表征的经向翻转环流(MOC)变化图(a)和(c)为海温变化,(b)和(d)为经向流函数变化,等值线为各自的气候态
图5  CMIP6多模式集合平均的快响应、慢响应成分中的SST变化图
图6  南大洋热存储量分布及热收支分析示意图(据参考文献[48]修改)(a)为纬向积分的热存储量随纬度—深度分布图;(b)为热收支分析结果示意图,红色直线箭头为平均流的热输送,红色波浪线箭头为涡致热输运
模式序号CMIP5CMIP6模式序号CMIP5CMIP6
1ACCESS1-0ACCESS-CM215GISS-E2-HGISS-E2-1-H
2ACCESS1-3ACCESS-ESM1-516GISS-E2-RGISS-E2-1-G
3BCC-CSM1-1BCC-CSM2-MR17HadGEM2-CCHadGEM3-GC31-LL
4BCC-CSM1-1-mBCC-ESM118HadGEM2-ESHadGEM3-GC31-MM
5CanESM2CanESM519inmcm4INM-CM4-8
6CCSM4CESM220IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM6A-LR
7CESM1-CAM5CESM2-WACCM21MIROC5MIROC6
8CNRM-CM5CNRM-CM6-122MIROC-ESMMIROC-ES2L
9EC-EARTHEC-Earth323MPI-ESM-LRMPI-ESM1-2-LR
10FGOALS-g2FGOALS-g324MPI-ESM-MRMPI-ESM1-2-HR
11FGOALS-s2FGOALS-f3-L25MRI-CGCM3MRI-ESM2-0
12FIO-ESMFIO-ESM-2-026NorESM1-MNorESM2-LM
13GFDL-CM3GFDL-CM427NorESM1-MENorESM2-MM
14GFDL-ESM2MGFDL-ESM4
表1  模式模拟偏差分析中使用的CMIP5和CMIP6模式
图7  CMIP5与CMIP6模式对南大洋SST的模拟偏差图(a)历史时期(1979—2005年)CMIP5多模式集合平均与观测(ERSST v5)之差;(b)CMIP6多模式集合平均(MME)与观测之差;(c)CMIP6与CMIP5的MME之差(即两代模式模拟偏差的变化);(d)CMIP6相对于CMIP5模式模拟偏差变化的百分比(%);所有的黑色等值线均为图7a中CMIP5模式的SST模拟偏差等于0的位置;CMIP5和CMIP6模式均为27个,且CMIP6中的各个模式均为CMIP5中对应模式的升级版本
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