地球科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 947 -955. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.08.0947

全球变化研究 上一篇    下一篇

全球变暖hiatus现象的研究进展
陈幸荣 1, 2, 蔡怡 1, 谭晶 1, 黄勇勇 1, 汪雷 2   
  1. 1.国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京100081; 2.国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-20 出版日期:2014-09-17
  • 基金资助:

    海洋公益性行业专项“中国近海短期气候预测技术及其应用”(编号:201105019)资助

Research Progress on Hiatus in The Process of Global Warming

Chen Xingrong 1, 2, Cai Yi 1, Tan Jing 1, Wang Lei 2   

  1. 1 National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081; 2 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing, 10008
  • Received:2014-03-20 Online:2014-09-17 Published:2014-09-17

进入21世纪后, 全球增暖hiatus现象成为国际上气候变化研究的一个新热点。详细介绍了国际上该现象的研究进展, 特别是对hiatus现象的确认研究, 影响hiatus现象的辐射外强迫和气候系统海气相互作用产生的自然变率对hiatus现象的影响研究工作, 最后提出了现阶段国际上对于hiatus现象的研究亟需解决的问题。造成21世纪hiatus现象的原因是在太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的大背景场下赤道信风加强, 使赤道西太平洋暖水“堆积”和赤道东太平洋变冷, 造成海洋上层热量向深层传输。因此, hiatus现象并不代表全球变暖的停止, 只是热量向深层海洋转移, 是全球变暖的另一种表现形式。

In the 21st century, global warming hiatus has become a new hotspot in the research of climate change. This paper introduces the research progress on this phenomenon in detail, especially the validation studies of hiatus, research on the influence of the radiation forcing and the natural variability of the climate system due to airsea interaction, and then puts forward several puzzles that still need to be solved on current research of hiatus. The paper particularly introduces the international major view, which think that the main reason of the hiatus in this century is that the strengthened trade wind on the background of the PDO negative phase leads to the warm water "accumulation" in the equatorial western Pacific while the cooling in equatorial eastern Pacific causes the heat transferred down to the deep ocean. Therefore, hiatus phenomenon does not mean the stop of global warming, but just the heat transportation to the deep ocean, which is another manifestation of global warming.

Key words: PDO, Hiatus, ENSO.

中图分类号: 

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