全球变暖hiatus现象的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.08.0947

进入21世纪后, 全球增暖hiatus现象成为国际上气候变化研究的一个新热点。详细介绍了国际上该现象的研究进展, 特别是对hiatus现象的确认研究, 影响hiatus现象的辐射外强迫和气候系统海气相互作用产生的自然变率对hiatus现象的影响研究工作, 最后提出了现阶段国际上对于hiatus现象的研究亟需解决的问题。造成21世纪hiatus现象的原因是在太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的大背景场下赤道信风加强, 使赤道西太平洋暖水“堆积”和赤道东太平洋变冷, 造成海洋上层热量向深层传输。因此, hiatus现象并不代表全球变暖的停止, 只是热量向深层海洋转移, 是全球变暖的另一种表现形式。

关键词: 全球变暖间断, 太平洋年代际振荡, ENSO

In the 21st century, global warming hiatus has become a new hotspot in the research of climate change. This paper introduces the research progress on this phenomenon in detail, especially the validation studies of hiatus, research on the influence of the radiation forcing and the natural variability of the climate system due to airsea interaction, and then puts forward several puzzles that still need to be solved on current research of hiatus. The paper particularly introduces the international major view, which think that the main reason of the hiatus in this century is that the strengthened trade wind on the background of the PDO negative phase leads to the warm water "accumulation" in the equatorial western Pacific while the cooling in equatorial eastern Pacific causes the heat transferred down to the deep ocean. Therefore, hiatus phenomenon does not mean the stop of global warming, but just the heat transportation to the deep ocean, which is another manifestation of global warming.

Key words: Hiatus, PDO, ENSO.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 全球平均温度随时间的变化 ^{[

11
]}

Fig. 1 Global mean surface temperature change with time ^{[

11
]}

图2 基于观测的海洋热状况随时间的变化（a）SST距平（b）次表层和深层海洋热含量 ^{[

11
]}

Fig.2 Temporal changes in observationalbased estimates of ocean heat (a)SST anomaly, (b)subsurface and deep ocean content ^{[

11
]}

图3 Hiatus时期合成的海温线性趋势 ^{[

27
,

28
]} 点刻代表5%显著性水平

Fig.3 Composite average SST linear trends for hiatus decades ^{[

27
,

28
]} Stippling indicates 5% significance

图4 1999—2012年和1976—1998年年平均表面温度的差值（单位：℃）（a）全球分布;(b)纬向平均分布（蓝线：海洋, 红线：陆地, 黑线：纬向平均）^{[

21
]}

Fig.4 Differences in annual mean surface temperature from GISS for 1999-2012 and 1976-1998 (unit: ℃) (a)Global distribution;（b）Zonal mean distribution for ocean (blue), land (red), and zonal mean (black)^{[

21
]}

图5 CMIP5 RCP4.5中未来全球表面温度预测, 起始年为2006年 ^{[

11
]}

Fig.5 The projects of global surface mean temperature in CMIP5 RCP4.5 from 2006 ^{[

11
]}

[1]	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change 2007[C]\\Solomon S, ed.The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[2]	Easterling D R, Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36: L08706, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810.
[3]	Smith T M, Peterson T C, Lawrimore J H, et al. New surface temperature analyses for climate monitoring[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32: L14712, doi:10.1029/2005GL023402.
[4]	Knight J, Kenneby J J, Folland C, et al.Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90:S20-S21.
[5]	Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111: D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
[6]	Kerr R A. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit[J]. Science, 2009, 326:28-29.
[7]	Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al.Improvements to NOAA’s historical mergedland-ocean surface temperature analysis(1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21:2285-2293.
[8]	Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sate M, et al.Global surface temperature change[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 2010, 48:RG4004, doi: 10.1029/2010RG000345.
[9]	Foster G, Rahmstorf S. Global temperature evolution 1979-2010[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2011, 6(4):RG4004, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
[10]	Morice C P, Kennedy J J, Rayner N A, et al.Quantifying uncertainties inglobal and regional temperature change using an ensemble observationalestimates:The HadCRUT4 data set[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012, 117(D8), doi:10.1029/2011jd017187.
[11]	Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis[M]\\Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[12]	Lean J L, Rind D H. How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35: L18701, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034864.
[13]	Lean J L, Rind D H. How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36: L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932.
[14]	Hansen J, Sato M, Karecha P, et al. Earth’s energy imbalance and its implications[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011, 11: 13421-13449.
[15]	Santer B D, Bonfils C, Painter J F, et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7: 185-189.
[16]	Solomon S, Rosenlof K H, Portmann R W, et al. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming[J]. Science, 2010, 327:1219-1223.
[17]	Solomon S, Daniel J S, Neely R R, et al. The persistently variable “background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change[J]. Science, 2011, 333: 866-870.
[18]	Kaufmann R K, Kauppi H, Mann M L, et al. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011, 108: 11790-11793.
[19]	Trenberth K E. An imperative for adapting to climate change: Tracking Earth’s global energy[J]. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2009, 1:19-27.
[20]	Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Kiehl J. Earth’s global energy budget[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90: 311-323.
[21]	Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T.An apparent hiatus in global warming?[J]. Earth’s Future, 2013, doi: 10.1002/2013EF000165.
[22]	Loeb N G, Lyman J M, Johnson G C, et al. Observed changes in top-of-theatmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistentwithin uncertainty[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2012, 5: 110-113, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1375.
[23]	Levitus S, Antonov J I, Boyer T P, et al. Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 36: L07608, doi: 10.1029.2008GL037155.
[24]	Levitus S, Antonov J I, Boyer T P, et al. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0~2000 m), 1955-2010[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39: L10603, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051106.
[25]	Lyman J M, Good S A, Gouretski V V, et al. Robust warming of the global upper ocean[J]. Nature, 2010, 465: 334-337, doi: 10.1038/nature09043.
[26]	Tung K K, Zhou J. Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013, 110(6): 2058-2063.
[27]	Meehl G A, Hu A, Arblaster J, et al. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18):7298-7310.
[28]	Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T, et al. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1(7): 360-364.
[29]	Meehl G A, Washington W M, Arblaster J M, et al. Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25: 3661-3683.
[30]	Santer B D, Mears C, Doutriaux C, et al. Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011, 116: D22105, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016263.
[31]	Katsman C A, van Oldenborgh G J. Tracing the upper ocean’s “missing heat”[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38: L14610, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048417.
[32]	Purkey S G, Johnson G C. Warming of global abyssal and deep Southern Ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23: 6336-6351.
[33]	Song Y T, Colberg F. Deep ocean warming assessed from altimeters, gravity recovery and climate experiment, in situ measurements, and a non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011, 116:C02020, doi: 10.1029/2010JC006601.
[34]	Palmer M D, McNeall D J, Dunstone N J.Importance of the deep ocean for estimating decadal changes in Earth’s radiation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38: L13707, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047835.
[35]	Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes F J, Andreu-BurilloI, et al. Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3: 649-653, doi:10.1038/nclimate1863.
[36]	Watanabe M, Kamae Y, Yoshimori M, et al. Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50541.
[37]	Balmaseda M A, Trenberth K E, Kallen E. Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40: 1754-1759, doi:10.1002/grl.50382.
[38]	Kosaka Y, Xie S P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013, 501:403-407, doi: 10.1038/nature12534.
[39]	Chen J, Del Genio A D, Carlson B E, et al. The spatiotemporal structure of twentieth-century climate variations in observations and reanalyses. Part II: Pacific pan-decadal variability[J]. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21: 2634-2650.
[40]	Hu A, Meehl G A, Han W, et al. Influence of continental ice retreat on future global climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26: 3087-3111.
[41]	Editorial. Scientist communicators[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4:149.
[42]	Fyfe J C, Gillett N P. Recent observed and simulated warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 150-151.
[43]	Hawkins E, Edwards T, McNeall D. Pause for thought[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 154-156.
[44]	Boykoff M. Media discourse on the climate slowdown[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 156-158.
[45]	Goddard L. Heat hide and seek[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 158-161.
[46]	Seneviratne S, Donat M G, Mueller B, et al. No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 161-163.
[47]	Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Tang Guoli, et al. The pause of global warming in the last decade: 1999-2008[J]. Advances in Chimate Change Research, 2010, 6(2):95-99.
	[王绍武, 罗勇, 唐国利, 等.近10年全球变暖的停滞?[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(2): 95-99.]
[48]	Wang Shaowu, Ge Quansheng, Wang Fang, et al. Key issues on debating about the global warming[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2010, 25(6):656-665.
	[王绍武, 葛全胜, 王芳, 等.全球气候变暖争议中的核心问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2010, 25(6): 656-665.]
[49]	Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, et al. Global warming does not stall in the 21st century[J]. Advances in Chimate Change Research, 2013, 9(5): 386-387.
	[王绍武, 罗勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 21世纪气候变暖并未停滞[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(5):386-387.]
[50]	Tang Guoli, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin, et al. Continuation of the global warming[J]. Advances in Chimate Change Research, 2012, 8(4): 235-242.
	[唐国利, 罗勇, 黄建斌, 等.气候变暖在继续[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(4): 235-242.]
[51]	Gu Dejun, Wang Dongxiao, Li Chunhui. Some debates upon the originating region and mechanism of PDO[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2003, 19(Suppl.):136-144.
	[谷德军, 王东晓, 李春晖.PDO源地与机制的若干争论[J]. 热带气象学报, 2003, 19(增刊):136-144.]
[52]	Wang D X, Wang J, Wu L X, et al. Regime shifts in the North Pacific simulated by a COADS-driven isopycnal model[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2003, 20(5):743-754.
[53]	Wang Dongxiao, Xie Qiang, Liu Yun, et al. A research review of interdecadal climate variability in Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2003, 22(1):76-83.
	[王东晓, 谢强, 刘赟, 等.太平洋年代际海洋变率研究进展[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2003, 22(1):76-83.]
[54]	Wang X, Wang D X, Zhou W, et al. Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Nio and La Nina occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36: L11701, doi:10.1029 2009GL037929.
[55]	Xiao Ziniu, Zhong Qi, Yin Zhiqiang, et al. Advances in the research of impact of decadal solar cycle on modern climate[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(12):1335-1348.
	[肖子牛, 钟琦, 尹志强, 等.太阳活动年代际变化对现代气候影响的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(12): 1335-1348.]
[56]	Wang Pinxian. Oceanography from inside the ocean[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(5):517-520.
	[汪品先.从海洋内部研究海洋[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(5):517-520.]

[1]	夏松, 刘鹏, 江志红, 程军. CMIP5和 CMIP6模式在历史试验下对 AMO和 PDO的模拟评估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(1): 58-68.
[2]	王凡, 刘传玉, 胡石建, 高山, 贾凡, 张林林, 汪嘉宁, 冯俊乔. 太平洋暖池冷舌交汇区盐度变异机制及气候效应研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(8): 775-782.
[3]	吴波, 周天军, 孙倩. 海洋模式初始化同化方案对IAP近期气候预测系统回报试验技巧的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(4): 342-352.
[4]	黄强, 陈子燊. 全球变暖背景下珠江流域极端气温与降水事件时空变化的区域研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(8): 956-967.
[5]	王凡，胡敦欣，穆穆，王启，何金海，朱江，刘志宇. 热带太平洋海洋环流与暖池的结构特征、变异机理和气候效应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(6): 595-602.
[6]	周琴;赵进平;何宜军. 南极绕极波研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19(5): 761-766.
[7]	李崇银,穆明权. ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环[J]. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(5): 631-638.
[8]	龚道溢,王绍武. 近百年全球温度变化中的ENSO分量[J]. 地球科学进展, 1999, 14(5): 518-523.
[9]	张人禾. ENSO循环的形成机制及其模拟与预测研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 1993, 8(6): 50-56.

阅读次数

全文

摘要

Research Progress on Hiatus in The Process of Global Warming