全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.02.0175

地球科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 175 -190. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.02.0175

全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾

徐一丹 ¹(

),李建平 ¹(

),汪秋云 ¹,林霄沛 ²

1. 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院，北京100875
2. 中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室，青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室，山东青岛 266100

收稿日期:2018-09-14 修回日期:2018-12-07 出版日期:2019-02-10
通讯作者: 李建平 E-mail:201731490004@mail.bnu.edu.cn;ljp@bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目“外部强迫和内部变率在全球变暖停滞中的作用”（编号:2016YFA0601801）；海洋局国际合作项目“太平洋—印度洋与亚洲季风的相互影响”（GASI-IPOVAI-03）资助.

Review of the Research Progress in Global Warming Hiatus

Yidan Xu ¹( ),Jianping Li ¹( ),Qiuyun Wang ¹,Xiaopei Lin ²

1. College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Physical Oceanography Laboratory / CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266100, China

Received:2018-09-14 Revised:2018-12-07 Online:2019-02-10 Published:2019-03-26
Contact: Jianping Li E-mail:201731490004@mail.bnu.edu.cn;ljp@bnu.edu.cn
About author:Xu Yidan(1992-), female, Baofeng County, Henan Province, Ph.D student. Research areas include dynamic meteorology. E-mail:201731490004@mail.bnu.edu.cn|Li Jianping (1969-), male, Shanyin County, Shanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include climate dynamics and predictability, monsoons, and annular modes and their impacts. E-mail: ljp@bnu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Key R & D Program of China “The roles of external forcing and internal variability in the global warming hiatus”(No. 2016YFA0601801);The State Oceanic Administration (SOA) International Cooperation Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions “Interaction between the Indo-Pacific Ocean and Asian Monsoon”(GASI-IPOVAI-03);Project supported by the National Key R & D Program of China “The roles of external forcing and internal variability in the global warming hiatus” (No. 2016YFA0601801)； The State Oceanic Administration (SOA) International Cooperation Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions “Interaction between the Indo-Pacific Ocean and Asian Monsoon” (GASI-IPOVAI-03).

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1998—2012年，全球平均地面增温速率较之前明显趋缓，出现全球变暖停滞现象，该现象的成因与机制是当前气候变化研究的一个热点领域。主要从外部强迫和内部变率2个角度回顾全球变暖停滞产生机制的研究进展。从气候系统外部强迫影响来说，全球变暖停滞主要受到太阳活动、火山爆发、气溶胶以及平流层水汽等的影响。从气候系统内部调控作用来看，全球增温速率减缓主要受到太平洋、大西洋、印度洋和南大洋自然变率以及相应的热量再分配过程的影响。全球变暖停滞期间气候系统内部能量并没有减少，其中一部分能量被转移并储存在了海洋中深层，从而对全球增温减缓产生影响。同时，重点回顾了针对部分耦合强迫作用的“起搏器”试验，该类试验是研究全球变暖停滞的特征、成因及机制的有力手段。此外，也总结了全球变暖停滞现象对气候系统能量收支平衡、资料、模拟以及相关政策制定等方面带来的挑战，展望了未来的研究重点。

关键词: 全球变暖停滞, 外部强迫, 内部变率, 能量, “起搏器”试验

From 1998 to 2012, the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature showed significantly slower than before, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. The causes and underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon are currently a hot topic of climatic change research. The research significance of global warming hiatus was discussed and relevant research progress was reviewed from two perspectives of external forcings and internal variabilities. In term of external forcings, global warming hiatus is mainly affected by solar activities, volcanic eruptions, aerosols and stratospheric water vapor. With respect to internal variabilities, the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature slowdown is mainly related to the natural variabilities of the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean and influenced by the related heat redistribution processes. During the global warming hiatus period, some energy is transferred and restored in the deep ocean so as to modulate the global warming rate, rather than there is a reduction of global total energy in the climate system. In addition, the partially coupled forcing pacemaker model experiment was also reviewed. The pacemaker experiment is a powerful tool for studying the characteristics, causes and underlying mechanisms of the global warming hiatus. Besides, some challenges resulted from the global warming hiatus, including the global energy imbalance, data, simulation and related policy-making were summarized, and future research directions were also discussed.

Key words: Global warming hiatus, External forcing, Internal variability, Energy, Pacemaker experiment.

中图分类号:

图1 1850—2014年全球平均温度变化与全球大气CO₂ 浓度曲线^{[

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Fig. 1 The global mean temperature and global atmospheric CO₂ concentration from 1850 to 2014 ^{[

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图2 基于观测、历史试验（HIST）以及太平洋—全球大气—历史试验（POGA-H）的年平均全球温度变化趋势^{[

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Fig. 2 Annual mean global temperature trends based on observations and simulated (HIST and POGA-H)^{[

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图3 1992—2011年太平洋温度趋势及海气环流的原理图^{[

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Fig. 3 Schematic of the trends in temperature and ocean-atmosphere circulation in the Pacific over 1992-2011 ^{[

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图4 大西洋多年代际振荡远程调控西太平洋年代际变化的物理机制图^{[

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Fig. 4 Schematic diagram for the teleconnection between AMO and western tropical Pacific decadal variability ^{[

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图5 1900—2011年北半球平均温度（DNHT）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）以及北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）指数^{[

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Fig. 5 DNHT, NAO, and AMO indices from 1900 to 2011 ^{[

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图6 大气层顶净辐射与海洋热含量^{[

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Fig. 6 Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) net radiation and global ocean Heat-Content (HC)^{[

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