地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 191 -201. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.02.0191

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60年来我国主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布
宁晓菊 1, 2,张丽君 2,秦耀辰 2,刘凯 1   
  1. 1. 河南财经政法大学城乡协调河南省协同创新中心，河南 郑州 475000
    2. 河南大学环境与规划学院，河南 开封 475004
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-25 修回日期:2019-01-03 出版日期:2019-02-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目“碳排放和减碳的社会经济代价研究”（编号：2016YFA0602500）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“地理学本体论问题理论研究”（编号：41771445）资助.

Temporal-spatial Distribution of Suitable Areas for Major Food Crops in China Over 60 Years

Xiaoju Ning 1, 2,Lijun Zhang 2,Yaochen Qin 2,Kai Liu 1   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on the Coordinated Development of Urban and Rural in Henan Province, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 475000，China
    2. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Henan Kaifeng 475004，China
  • Received:2018-10-25 Revised:2019-01-03 Online:2019-02-10 Published:2019-03-26
  • About author:Ning Xiaoju(1987-), female, Shangqiu County, Henan Province, Lecturer. Research areas include climate change and agricultural adaptation. E-mail:nxj0655@163.com
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China “Initiative on social and economic dimensions on climate change and carbon reduction”(No.2016YFA0602500);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “The theoretical study of geography ontology”(No.41771445);Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China “Initiative on social and economic dimensions on climate change and carbon reduction” (No.2016YFA0602500); The National Natural Science Foundation of China “The theoretical study of geography ontology” (No.41771445).
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模拟作物适宜生长区的时空分布是分析气候变化对作物生长影响、提高作物生长适应能力的重要内容。选择影响主要粮食作物（小麦、玉米和水稻）生长的气候要素，结合地表土壤和地面高程要素与农业观测站数据，模拟和分析1953—2012年主要粮食作物适宜生长区的变动，评估气候变化下作物的适应能力。研究发现： ① 60年来3种粮食作物适宜生长区对气候变化响应程度从大到小依次是小麦、水稻和玉米。 ② 同一时空尺度上，主要粮食作物适宜生长类型区在南方农区较北方农区多样化，在山地较盆地多样化，在高原较平原多样化。 ③ 小麦生长适应气候变化的能力在多数农区略有上升。玉米生长的适应能力在北方和南方农区分别略微提高和下降。水稻生长的适应能力在长江中下游区、西南区和华南区相对稳定，在黄淮海区和东北区分别下降和提高。 ④ 60年来，主要粮食作物综合生长适应气候变化的能力在黄淮海区和长江中下游区下降，在其余农区升高。 ⑤ 玉米和水稻适宜生长区分别与播种面积和作物产量显著相关，这为模拟未来不同气候情景下二者适宜生长区的分布提供了可行性。小麦适宜生长区与播种面积和产量均不显著相关，未来需要考虑更多因素精准识别小麦适宜生长区，以便更为有效地提高小麦生长对气候变化的适应能力。

关键词: 适宜生长区, 适宜等级, 适应能力, 气候变化, 粮食作物

Simulating the temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for crops is an important part of analyzing the effects of climate change on crop growth, reducing the vulnerability of crop growth, and assessing the adaptability of crop growth to climate change. This study selected climate factors that affect the growth of wheat, maize and rice, and it combined surface soil and ground elevation factors as environment variables, as well as data from agricultural observation stations as species variables. The MaxEnt ecological model was used to identify suitable areas for these three crops during the period of 1953-2012. The areas suitable for the three crops were analyzed to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of major food crops and to estimate the difference in crop growth adaptability under climate change. The results showed the following: ① The response to climate change of the areas suitable for food crops could be ranked from strongest to weakest as follows: wheat, rice, and maize. ② On the same space-time scale, for the growth of wheat and rice, the southern agricultural regions, mountainous areas and plateaus were relatively unsuitable for a wider variety of crops than the northern agricultural regions, plains and basins. ③ The adaptability of wheat increased in the major agricultural regions slightly. The adaptability of maize increased in the northern agricultural regions and decreased in the southern agricultural regions, respectively. The adaptability of rice was stable in the southern agricultural regions, and it decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and increased in the northeastern region. ④ Over 60 years, the ability of the major food crops to adapt to climate change increased in the northeast region, Gansu-Xinjiang region, Southwest region and Loess Plateau region, but the adaptability of major food crops decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Mid-and-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. ⑤ The suitable areas of maize and rice were significantly correlated with planting areas and yields, respectively, which provided feasibility for simulating the distribution of suitable areas on maize and rice in different climate scenarios in the future. The suitable area of wheat is not significantly related to the planting area and yield. In the future, we will take more factors to model the suitable area of wheat accurately.

Key words: Suitable area, Crop adaptability, Suitability level, Climate change, Major food crops.

中图分类号: 

表1 影响主要粮食作物种植分布的关键气候要素
Table 1 Climate factors for major food crops growth
作物 主要气候要素
小麦 0 ℃ 积温及持续天数、年平均气温、年极端低温、最冷月平均气温、日照时数、年降水量及降水天数
玉米 10 ℃ 积温、年平均气温、最热月平均气温、无霜期、日照时数、年降水量、年降水天数
水稻 18 ℃ 积温及持续天数、10 ℃ 积温持续天数、年平均气温、最热月平均气温、年温差、年降水量及降水天数
图1 主要粮食作物农业观测站分布
Fig1 Distribution of agricultural observation stations for major food crops
图2 60年来小麦适宜生长区的时空变化
Fig.2 Temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for wheat from 1953 to 2012
表2 小麦适宜生长区各类型占全国面积比值及变化幅度（单位 ： % ）
Table 2 Ratio of different suitable areas for wheat（ unit： % ）
农区 1953—1982年各类型面积比值 1983—2012年各类型区面积变化幅度
不适宜区 低适宜区 中适宜区 高适宜区 不适宜区 低适宜区 中适宜区 高适宜区
东北区 2.485 4.205 3.170 1.619 +0.062 -0.214 +0.098 +0.054
内蒙及长城沿线区 0.002 1.411 5.029 2.814 -0.001 -0.205 -0.358 +0.564
甘新区 8.625 8.098 5.158 2.963 +0.969 -1.115 +0.252 -0.107
青藏区 17.857 2.515 1.045 0.903 -0.020 -0.032 -0.008 +0.059
黄土高原区 0.014 0.324 1.777 1.972 +0.000 -0.041 +0.009 +0.031
黄淮海区 0.000 0.212 1.159 3.187 +0.000 -0.034 -0.134 +0.168
长江中下游区 2.976 3.020 1.926 1.229 -0.061 +0.054 +0.210 -0.204
西南区 1.397 4.855 2.096 1.349 +0.020 -0.089 +0.023 +0.046
华南区 3.188 1.257 0.145 0.018 -0.028 +0.072 -0.031 -0.013
总和 36.544 25.898 21.505 16.053 +0.943 -1.602 +0.062 +0.598
图3 60年来玉米适宜生长区的时空分布
Fig.3 Temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for maize from 1953 to 2012
表3 玉米适宜生长区各类型的面积比值及变化幅度（单位 ： % ）
Table 3 Ratio of different suitable areas for maize（ unit： % ）
农区 1953—1982年各类型面积比值 1983—2012年各类型区面积变化值
不适宜区 低适宜区 中适宜区 高适宜区 不适宜区 低适宜区 中适宜区 高适宜区
东北区 3.697 2.304 2.453 3.025 -0.084 +0.337 -0.283 +0.030
内蒙及长城沿线区 3.889 1.899 1.478 1.991 -0.233 +0.209 +0.118 -0.094
甘新区 14.968 6.658 2.490 0.729 -0.029 -0.011 +0.017 +0.023
青藏区 21.495 0.578 0.092 0.156 +0.020 -0.005 -0.011 -0.004
黄土高原区 0.254 1.079 1.576 1.178 +0.001 -0.088 +0.074 +0.013
黄淮海区 0.000 0.057 0.893 3.608 0.000 -0.021 -0.153 +0.174
长江中下游区 0.604 6.635 1.807 0.104 +0.377 -0.396 +0.072 -0.054
西南区 0.511 4.440 2.671 2.075 0.000 +0.092 +0.007 -0.099
华南区 0.578 3.363 0.568 0.098 -0.004 -0.079 +0.016 +0.067
总和 45.994 27.013 14.029 12.964 +0.048 +0.038 -0.142 +0.056
图4 60年来水稻适宜生长区的时空分布
Fig.4 Temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for paddy from 1953 to 2012
表4 水稻适宜生长区各类型的面积比值及变化幅度（单位 ： % ）
Table 4 Ratio of different suitable areas for paddy（ unit： % ）
农区 1953—1982年各类型面积比值 1983—2012年各类型区面积比值
不适宜区 低适宜区 中适宜区 高适宜区 不适宜区 低适宜区 中适宜区 高适宜区
东北区 3.815 5.134 2.329 0.201 +0.136 -0.288 +0.047 +0.105
内蒙及长城沿线区 8.183 1.062 0.012 0.000 +0.059 -0.054 -0.005 0.000
甘新区 24.704 0.140 0.000 0.000 -0.242 +0.242 0.000 0.000
青藏区 21.841 0.250 0.114 0.116 -0.007 +0.009 -0.001 -0.002
黄土高原区 3.393 0.654 0.040 0.000 -0.099 -0.003 +0.102 +0.000
黄淮海区 0.129 2.207 2.110 0.113 -0.001 +0.461 -0.621 +0.160
长江中下游区 0.832 2.078 2.941 3.299 -0.257 +0.221 +0.216 -0.181
西南区 0.938 2.245 3.250 3.263 -0.085 -0.035 -0.109 +0.230
华南区 0.347 1.262 1.679 1.318 -0.067 +0.035 +0.194 -0.162
总和 64.181 15.032 12.476 8.310 -0.563 +0.589 -0.177 +0.151
图5 主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布
Fig.5 Temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for major food crops from 1953 to 2012
表5 主要粮食作物适宜生长区分布面积比例及变化幅度（单位 ： % ）
Table 5 Ratio of different suitable areas for major food crops（ unit： % ）
粮食作物类型区 1953—1982年 1983—2012年 变化 粮食作物类型区 1953—1982年 1983—2012年 变化
whHM,mzHM,pdHM 7.747 7.714 -0.033 whL,mzL,pdN 3.425 3.391 -0.034
whHM,mzHM,pdL 6.438 6.837 +0.399 whL,mzN,pdHM 0.087 0.157 +0.070
whHM,mzHM,pdN 7.481 7.377 -0.104 whL,mzN,pdL 0.417 0.348 -0.069
whHM,mzL,pdHM 2.629 2.467 -0.162 whL,mzN,pdN 10.672 9. 383 -1.289
whHM,mzL,pdL 0.734 1.026 +0.292 whN,mzHM,pdHM 0.815 0.759 -0.056
whHM,mzL,pdN 7.112 7.277 +0.165 whN,mzHM,pdL 0.586 0.527 -0.059
whHM,mzN,pdHM 0.001 0.000 -0.001 whN,mzHM,pdN 0.026 0.017 -0.009
whHM,mzN,pdL 0.049 0.050 +0.001 whN,mzL,pdHM 2.162 2.373 +0.211
whHM,mzN,pdN 5.367 5.469 +0.102 whN,mzL,pdL 2.532 2.372 -0.160
whL,mzHM,pdHM 2.481 2.521 +0.040 whN,mzL,pdN 1.021 0.804 -0.217
whL,mzHM,pdL 1.043 0.815 -0.228 whN,mzN,pdHM 0.149 0.142 -0.007
whL,mzHM,pdN 0.376 0.339 -0. 037 whN,mzN,pdL 0.551 0. 930 +0.379
whL,mzL,pdHM 4.715 4.626 -0.089 whN,mzN,pdN 28.700 29.562 +0.862
whL,mzL,pdL 2.683 2.716 +0.033
表6 主要粮食作物适宜生长区与实际分布的相关性
Table 6 Correlation coefficient between the suitable area and actual distribution of major grain crops
中高适宜区 适宜区
作物 小麦 玉米 水稻 小麦 玉米 水稻

产量

置信水平

0.156

0.402

0.765**

0.000

0.729**

0.000

0.05

0.791

0.415*

0.02

0.579**

0.001

播种面积

置信水平

0.188

0.311

0.775**

0.000

0.721**

0.000

0.075

0.690

0.431*

0.015

0.578**

0.001
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