地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 1193 -1202. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.11.1193.

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国际气候变化科学百年研究态势分析 *
曲建升( ), 肖仙桃, 曾静静   
  1. 中国科学院兰州文献情报中心全球变化研究信息中心,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-11 修回日期:2018-10-20 出版日期:2018-11-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“气候变化科学成果集成研究范式及其实现平台研究”(编号:41671535);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项资助(编号:XDA20020301)资助.

A Profile of International Climate Change Science in the Past One Hundred Years *

Jiansheng Qu( ), Xiantao Xiao, Jingjing Zeng   

  1. Information Center for Global Change Studies, Lanzhou Information Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2018-09-11 Revised:2018-10-20 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-12-21
  • About author:

    First author:Qu Jiansheng(1973-),male,Laiyang City,Shandong Province,Professor. Research areas include climate change intelligence and climate policy analysis.E-mail: jsqu@lzb.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "A research on meta-synthesis study paradigm and its implementation system for climate change scientific literatures" (No.41671535);The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA20020301)".
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气候变化是目前备受国际社会广泛关注的研究热点之一。为了更好地了解国际气候变化科学领域的发展态势和研究现状,以SCI和SSCI数据库为数据源,基于气候变化相关关键词,采集1900年以来相关文献150 834篇,通过对100多年来相关科学文献进行数据统计与分析,揭示了气候变化研究的发展历程、研究主题及热点的发展与演变。研究结果显示:①气候变化研究发端始于19世纪末20世纪初,1986年之后相关研究文献数量迅速增长;②一系列国际组织和政府间机构主导的国际计划对推动气候变化研究的快速发展作出了关键性的贡献;③美国和英国一直是气候变化研究的核心国家;④近10年来,中国论文所占比重迅速上升,科研合作强度、合作广度不断扩大;⑤国际气候变化研究热点转换迅速,当前研究热点主要集中在气候模型/模式、气候模拟、气候政策、气候敏感性、气候变化影响、气候变化适应、气候变化速度和气候变化减缓等方面。

关键词: 气候变化, 全球变化, 发展态势, 文献计量

Climate change is one of the most active research fields currently, which has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In order to better understand the development situation and research status of international climate change science, in this paper we took the SSCI and SCI databases as data sources, collected the relevant literatures since 1900 based on the key words related to climate change, and made some statistics and analysis of the literatures of the past one hundred years to reveal the development process of climate change research as well as the development and evolution of its research topics and hot spots. The results showed that the climate change research began in the late 18 th century and early 19 th century, and the academic debate about global warming and global cooling started in the early 1970s. The international programs and projects led by a range of international organizations and intergovernmental bodies have contributed significantly to the rapid development of climate change research. The United States and the United Kingdom have long been the core countries of climate change research. The proportion of Chinese papers has risen rapidly in the last decade. The intensity and scope of scientific research cooperation are constantly expanding. Current research focuses on climate model/modeling, climate simulation, climate policy, climate sensitivity, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and rate of climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Global change, Scientific profile, Bibliometrics.

中图分类号: 

图1 气候变化研究论文占全球论文比重的年度变化
Fig.1 Annual variations in the proportion of papers in the field of climate change research
图2 气候变化研究各年度论文数量及其篇均被引频次
Fig.2 Annual variations in the number and citation frequency of papers in climate change research
图3 主要国家气候变化研究论文数量的年度变化
Fig.3 Interannual variations in the number of papers in climate change research published by major countries
图4 主要国家气候变化论文所占比重的阶段变化
Fig.4 Phasic changes in the proportion of papers in climate change published by major countries
图5 15个主要论文产出国的论文篇均被引频次与高被引论文数比较
Fig.5 Comparison of the paper citation frequency and the number of highly cited papers between fifteen main countries
表1 1975—2016年气候变化研究发表论文最多的15个科研机构
Table 1 The top fifteen research institutions ranking according to the numbers of papers in climate change
机构 论文数/篇 被引频次/次 篇均被引频次/次 H指数
中国科学院 6 029 83 835 13.91 103
澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织 2 208 75 733 34.30 118
美国地质调查局 2 059 75 478 36.66 120
科罗拉多大学 1 716 70 811 41.27 122
加州大学伯克利分校 1 711 85 548 50.00 130
法国科研中心 1 709 61 015 35.70 108
美国国家大气海洋管理局 1 698 89 674 52.81 141
华盛顿大学 1 691 73 601 43.53 128
牛津大学 1 574 68 602 43.58 120
苏黎世联邦理工学院 1 530 54 923 35.90 104
哥伦比亚大学 1 501 74 159 49.41 127
加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚大学 1 386 42 066 30.35 95
美国国家大气科学研究中心 1 363 97 433 71.48 149
威斯康辛大学 1 349 60 097 44.55 116
佛罗里达大学 1 336 41 616 31.15 92
表2 论文被引频次最高的前20位著者
Table 2 Major researchers according the citation frequency of papers related to climate change
作者 所属机构 论文数/篇 被引频次/次
Stuart III Chapin F. 阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校 134 23 778
Wilfried T 法国科研中心 158 19 850
Prentice Colin I 澳大利亚麦考垂大学 115 19 571
Guisan Antoine 洛桑大学 101 17 665
Meehl Gerald A 美国国家大气科学研究中心 98 17 288
Hoegh-Guldberg Ove 昆士兰大学 105 16 884
Araujo Miguel B 西班牙国家研究委员会 108 16 208
Stouffer R J 美国国家海洋与大气管理局 55 15 056
Peterson Townsend A 堪萨斯大学 88 14 470
Mooney Harold A 哈佛大学 35 14 314
Lavorel Sandra 法国科研中心 61 13 838
Ciais Philippe 巴黎—萨克雷大学 202 13 741
Field Christopher B 卡内基科学研究院 85 12 499
Sykes Martin T 隆德大学 63 12 368
Thomas Chris D 约克大学 91 11 996
Penuelas Josep 西班牙生态研究与林业应用中心 205 11 915
Sitch, Stephen 埃克塞特大学 78 11 826
Jones Philip D 英国东安格利亚大学 94 11 178
Friedlingstein Pierre 巴黎—萨克雷大学 83 11 136
Melillo Jerry M 伍兹霍尔海洋生物学实验室 71 10 805
图6 合著论文数量所占比例的年度变化
Fig.6 Annual changes in the proportion of co-authored papers
图7 不同合著人数的论文数量及其篇均被引频次对比
Fig.7 Comparison between the number of papers and their citation frequency with different amounts of co-authors
图8 两国间合著、多国间合著论文及非国际和著论文所占比重的年度变化
Fig.8 Interannual changes in the proportion of co-authorship papers with two countries, multicountries and non international co-authorship
图9 2011—2016年主要国家科研合作关系网络
Fig.9 Important research cooperation networks between major countries in 2011-2016
图10 1986—1996年主要国家科研合作关系网络
Fig.10 Important research cooperation networks between major countries in 1986-1996
表3 基金资助论文最多的基金机构
Table 3 Funding organization with the largest number of funded papers
序号 基金名称 论文数/篇 序号 基金名称 论文数/篇
1 National Science Foundation 10 047 15 Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) 780
2 National Natural Science foundation of China 6 271 16 European Research Council 745
3 NASA 3 568 17 Academy of Finland 742
4 EU Framework Programme 2 555 18 CSIRO 634
5 U.S. Department of Energy 2 420 19 Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 573
6 Australian Research Council 2 281 20 CNRS 536
7 UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) 2 266 21 Norwegian Research Council 467
8 National Basic Research Program of China 2 097 22 Royal Society (UK) 456
9 NOAA 1 982 23 Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 456
10 German Research Foundation 1 721 24 CONACyT 426
11 European Commission 1 634 25 European Social Fund 412
12 Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 1 408 26 Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities 408
13 Chinese Academy of Sciences 906 27 Research Council of Norway 405
14 Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) 808 28 Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation 357
图11 气候变化领域总论文数与基金论文数对比
Fig.11 Comparison of the total number of papers in the field of climate change with funded papers
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