地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 1193 -1202. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.11.1193.

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国际气候变化科学百年研究态势分析 *
曲建升( ), 肖仙桃, 曾静静   
  1. 中国科学院兰州文献情报中心全球变化研究信息中心,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-11 修回日期:2018-10-20 出版日期:2018-11-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“气候变化科学成果集成研究范式及其实现平台研究”(编号:41671535);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项资助(编号:XDA20020301)资助.

A Profile of International Climate Change Science in the Past One Hundred Years *

Jiansheng Qu( ), Xiantao Xiao, Jingjing Zeng   

  1. Information Center for Global Change Studies, Lanzhou Information Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2018-09-11 Revised:2018-10-20 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-12-21
  • About author:

    First author:Qu Jiansheng(1973-),male,Laiyang City,Shandong Province,Professor. Research areas include climate change intelligence and climate policy analysis.E-mail: jsqu@lzb.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "A research on meta-synthesis study paradigm and its implementation system for climate change scientific literatures" (No.41671535);The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA20020301)".

气候变化是目前备受国际社会广泛关注的研究热点之一。为了更好地了解国际气候变化科学领域的发展态势和研究现状,以SCI和SSCI数据库为数据源,基于气候变化相关关键词,采集1900年以来相关文献150 834篇,通过对100多年来相关科学文献进行数据统计与分析,揭示了气候变化研究的发展历程、研究主题及热点的发展与演变。研究结果显示:①气候变化研究发端始于19世纪末20世纪初,1986年之后相关研究文献数量迅速增长;②一系列国际组织和政府间机构主导的国际计划对推动气候变化研究的快速发展作出了关键性的贡献;③美国和英国一直是气候变化研究的核心国家;④近10年来,中国论文所占比重迅速上升,科研合作强度、合作广度不断扩大;⑤国际气候变化研究热点转换迅速,当前研究热点主要集中在气候模型/模式、气候模拟、气候政策、气候敏感性、气候变化影响、气候变化适应、气候变化速度和气候变化减缓等方面。

Climate change is one of the most active research fields currently, which has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In order to better understand the development situation and research status of international climate change science, in this paper we took the SSCI and SCI databases as data sources, collected the relevant literatures since 1900 based on the key words related to climate change, and made some statistics and analysis of the literatures of the past one hundred years to reveal the development process of climate change research as well as the development and evolution of its research topics and hot spots. The results showed that the climate change research began in the late 18 th century and early 19 th century, and the academic debate about global warming and global cooling started in the early 1970s. The international programs and projects led by a range of international organizations and intergovernmental bodies have contributed significantly to the rapid development of climate change research. The United States and the United Kingdom have long been the core countries of climate change research. The proportion of Chinese papers has risen rapidly in the last decade. The intensity and scope of scientific research cooperation are constantly expanding. Current research focuses on climate model/modeling, climate simulation, climate policy, climate sensitivity, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and rate of climate change.

中图分类号: 

图1 气候变化研究论文占全球论文比重的年度变化
Fig.1 Annual variations in the proportion of papers in the field of climate change research
图1 气候变化研究论文占全球论文比重的年度变化
Fig.1 Annual variations in the proportion of papers in the field of climate change research
图2 气候变化研究各年度论文数量及其篇均被引频次
Fig.2 Annual variations in the number and citation frequency of papers in climate change research
图2 气候变化研究各年度论文数量及其篇均被引频次
Fig.2 Annual variations in the number and citation frequency of papers in climate change research
图3 主要国家气候变化研究论文数量的年度变化
Fig.3 Interannual variations in the number of papers in climate change research published by major countries
图3 主要国家气候变化研究论文数量的年度变化
Fig.3 Interannual variations in the number of papers in climate change research published by major countries
图4 主要国家气候变化论文所占比重的阶段变化
Fig.4 Phasic changes in the proportion of papers in climate change published by major countries
图4 主要国家气候变化论文所占比重的阶段变化
Fig.4 Phasic changes in the proportion of papers in climate change published by major countries
图5 15个主要论文产出国的论文篇均被引频次与高被引论文数比较
Fig.5 Comparison of the paper citation frequency and the number of highly cited papers between fifteen main countries
图5 15个主要论文产出国的论文篇均被引频次与高被引论文数比较
Fig.5 Comparison of the paper citation frequency and the number of highly cited papers between fifteen main countries
表1 1975—2016年气候变化研究发表论文最多的15个科研机构
Table 1 The top fifteen research institutions ranking according to the numbers of papers in climate change
表1 1975—2016年气候变化研究发表论文最多的15个科研机构
Table 1 The top fifteen research institutions ranking according to the numbers of papers in climate change
表2 论文被引频次最高的前20位著者
Table 2 Major researchers according the citation frequency of papers related to climate change
表2 论文被引频次最高的前20位著者
Table 2 Major researchers according the citation frequency of papers related to climate change
图6 合著论文数量所占比例的年度变化
Fig.6 Annual changes in the proportion of co-authored papers
图6 合著论文数量所占比例的年度变化
Fig.6 Annual changes in the proportion of co-authored papers
图7 不同合著人数的论文数量及其篇均被引频次对比
Fig.7 Comparison between the number of papers and their citation frequency with different amounts of co-authors
图7 不同合著人数的论文数量及其篇均被引频次对比
Fig.7 Comparison between the number of papers and their citation frequency with different amounts of co-authors
图8 两国间合著、多国间合著论文及非国际和著论文所占比重的年度变化
Fig.8 Interannual changes in the proportion of co-authorship papers with two countries, multicountries and non international co-authorship
图8 两国间合著、多国间合著论文及非国际和著论文所占比重的年度变化
Fig.8 Interannual changes in the proportion of co-authorship papers with two countries, multicountries and non international co-authorship
图9 2011—2016年主要国家科研合作关系网络
Fig.9 Important research cooperation networks between major countries in 2011-2016
图9 2011—2016年主要国家科研合作关系网络
Fig.9 Important research cooperation networks between major countries in 2011-2016
图10 1986—1996年主要国家科研合作关系网络
Fig.10 Important research cooperation networks between major countries in 1986-1996
图10 1986—1996年主要国家科研合作关系网络
Fig.10 Important research cooperation networks between major countries in 1986-1996
表3 基金资助论文最多的基金机构
Table 3 Funding organization with the largest number of funded papers
表3 基金资助论文最多的基金机构
Table 3 Funding organization with the largest number of funded papers
图11 气候变化领域总论文数与基金论文数对比
Fig.11 Comparison of the total number of papers in the field of climate change with funded papers
图11 气候变化领域总论文数与基金论文数对比
Fig.11 Comparison of the total number of papers in the field of climate change with funded papers
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