全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.12.1315

地球科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (12): 1315 -1324. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.12.1315

973项目研究进展下一篇

全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策

邬建国 ^{1, 2, 3}, 何春阳 ^{1, 2, *}, 张庆云 ⁴, 于德永 ^{1, 2}, 黄甘霖 ^{1, 2}, 黄庆旭 ^{1, 2}

1. 北京师范大学人与环境系统可持续性研究中心,北京100875; 2. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875; 3. 美国亚利桑那州立大学生命科学院和全球可持续性研究所, 坦佩亚利桑那州 85287; 4.中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

收稿日期:2014-11-16 修回日期:2014-12-02 出版日期:2014-12-20
通讯作者: 何春阳（1975-）,男,四川射洪人,教授,主要从事土地利用/覆盖变化、景观可持续性科学与城市可持续性研究. E-mail:Jingle.Wu@asu.edu
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策”（编号：2014CB954300）资助

Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change

Wu Jianguo ^{1, 2, 3}, He Chunyang ^{1, 2}, Zhang Qingyun ⁴, Yu Deyong ^{1, 2}, Huang Ganlin ^{1, 2}, Huang Qingxu ^{1, 2}

1. Center for HumanEnvironment System Sustainability, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3. School of Life Sciences and Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA; 4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2014-11-16 Revised:2014-12-02 Online:2014-12-20 Published:2014-12-20
Supported by:
; 感谢林海研究员、方精云研究员、傅伯杰研究员、刘纪远研究员和史培军教授等的专业性和建设性的意见。感谢毛齐正、赵媛媛和刘志锋,以及其他参与该项目的研究人员和研究生所做出的贡献。

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全球气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化已经导致许多地区水资源短缺、生态系统服务退化和巨灾风险增加等一系列生态环境问题。如何有效地应对气候变化风险,促进全球和区域的可持续发展,是当前全球变化研究中的一个重要论题。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目 “全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策(2014CB954300)”以可持续性科学为主要依据,以有序人类活动理念为指导思想,以实地观测、模型模拟和情景分析为主要手段,揭示气候变化和人类活动的定量关系,评估气候变化条件下人类活动对区域生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响,建立气候变化—有序人类活动—区域可持续发展耦合模型,提出景观及区域尺度上人类适应全球变化的综合策略。该研究项目将有助于发展和完善景观可持续性科学,促进我国半干旱地区主动适应全球气候变化的土地系统设计的理论和实践。

关键词: 景观可持续性科学, 土地系统设计, 模型, 有序人类活动, 全球气候变化

Climate change and land use/land cover change have resulted in water shortage, degraded ecosystem services, and increased disaster risks across the world. Developing strategies and measures for achieving regional and global sustainability in the face of these environmental problems is a key topic of current climate change research. This paper provides an overview of the 973 project, entitled “Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change”, including its background, relative progresses, key scientific questions, major research elements, methodology, and expected outcomes. The proposed research is based on sustainability science, guided by the idea of Orderly Human Activities (OHA), and implemented through an integrated methodology of combining field observations, simulation experiments, and scenario analysis. The main objectives of the project are: to quantify the relationship between human activities and climate change, to assess the impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the face of climate change, and to develop an integrated model of climate change, OHA, and regional sustainable development. The ultimate goal is to provide a landscape/regional-scale strategy for sustainable development in the face of climate change. The project is expected to help advance the science and application of landscape sustainability science and land system design, particularly in terms of linking climate change, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the dry land region of China.

Key words: Landscape sustainability science, Land system design, Global climate change, Modeling., Orderly human activity

中图分类号:

P467

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