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地球科学进展  2018, Vol. 33 Issue (3): 281-293    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.03.0281
全球变化研究     
环青海湖地区气候变化特征及其季风环流因素
丁之勇(), 鲁瑞洁*(), 刘畅, 段晨曦
1.地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875;2.防沙治沙教育部工程研究中心,北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
Temporal Change Characteristics of Climatic and Its Relationships with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Qinghai Lake Basin
Zhiyong Ding(), Ruijie Lu*(), Chang Liu, Chenxi Duan
1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.Engineering Center of Desertification and Blown-Sand Control of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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摘要:

基于青海湖流域及其周边地区11个气象站点1959—2015年逐月气温和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、突变分析、Morlet连续小波变换、Pearson相关分析和R/S分析等方法,分析了平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和降水的年、季变化特征及其季风环流影响因素,并探讨了该区域未来气候变化的总体趋势。研究结果表明:①环青海湖地区气温和降水总体上呈现出显著增加的趋势,秋季和冬季的平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温上升速率以及夏季和冬季降水增加速率最为明显。②气温和降水均存在较为明显的突变现象,气温突变时间普遍在1986年左右,而降水突变时间在2002年左右;研究区气温普遍存在2~3年的短周期,8~10年和30~32年的中长周期变化,而降水则存在着3~4年、6~7年的短周期和30~32年的长周期变化。③东亚夏季风指数对研究区秋季气温和夏季降水具有较大的影响,而印度夏季风主要影响了研究区春季气温和降水;北极涛动指数(AO)对研究区秋季和冬季气温的上升影响最大,对春季、夏季和冬季降水的影响也明显高于其他指数;北大西洋涛动指数(NAO)和厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)对研究区气温影响较小,NAO主要影响夏季和冬季降水,而ENSO主要影响秋季降水。④研究区年均气温和年降水的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明研究区气温和降水在未来一段时间内仍以上升趋势为主。

关键词: 青海湖气候变化东亚夏季风M-K检验R/S分析    
Abstract:

Based on monthly meteorological data from 11 stations(1959-2015)in Qinghai Basin(QHB) and its surrounding area, we analyzed monthly average temperature(Tmean), average maximum(TXam), minimum temperature(TNam) and precipitation variation characteristics as well as the influence of atmospheric oscillation on these parameters using Mann-Kendall trend analysis, mutation analysis, continuous Morlet wavelet transform, Pearson correlation analysis and R/S analysis method. In addition, the future trend of climate change in the regional scale was also discussed. We found that the temperature and precipitation increment were obvious in the region, especially the Tmean in autumn, winter, TXam and TNam in summer and winter precipitation showing significant increase. Temperature and precipitation experienced abrupt changes around 1986 and 2002, respectively. The period of oscillation of each temperature indices was similar featuring 2~3 years,8~10 years short- cycle and 30~32 years middle- cycle, while that for the precipitation featured 3~4 years,6~7 years short- cycle and 30~32 years middle- cycle. The East Asian Summer Monsoon Index(EASMI) anomaly is an important factor for the anomaly of autumn temperature and summer precipitation in QHB, while the Indian Summer Monsoon Index(ISMI) mainly affects the spring temperature and precipitation in the research area. The effects of Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) were relatively strong on temperature variation, especially in autumn and winter, and AO had significant effect on the precipitation in spring, summer and winter, too. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and ENSO have weak influence on the study area, NAO mainly affects summer and winter precipitation, while ENSO mainly affects autumn precipitation. The Hurst index of Tmean and annual precipitation in QHB are higher than 0.5, indicating that the temperature and precipitation in the study area will continue to be the positive trend in the future period.

Key words: Qinghai Lake    Climate change    East Asia Summer Monsoon    Mann-Kendall test    R/S analysis.
收稿日期: 2017-11-09 出版日期: 2018-05-02
ZTFLH:  P467  
基金资助: *国家自然科学基金项目“晚第四纪青海湖水位变化与风沙地貌发育过程”(编号:41571184)资助.
通讯作者: 鲁瑞洁     E-mail: ucaszyd@escience.cn;ruijielu@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:

作者简介:丁之勇(1990-),男,江西抚州人,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化与环境演变研究.E-mail:ucaszyd@escience.cn

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引用本文:

丁之勇, 鲁瑞洁, 刘畅, 段晨曦. 环青海湖地区气候变化特征及其季风环流因素[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(3): 281-293.

Zhiyong Ding, Ruijie Lu, Chang Liu, Chenxi Duan. Temporal Change Characteristics of Climatic and Its Relationships with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Qinghai Lake Basin. Advances in Earth Science, 2018, 33(3): 281-293.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.03.0281        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V33/I3/281

图1  青海湖流域气象站点分布及1959—2015年气温和降水平均值
图2  环青海湖地区年平均气温、年平均最高和最低气温变化趋势
季节 平均气温 平均最高气温 平均最低气温 降水量
平均值
/℃
倾向率
/(℃/10a)
p 平均值
/℃
倾向率
/(℃/10a)
p 平均值
/℃
倾向率
/(℃/10a)
p 平均值
/℃
倾向率
/(mm/10a)
p
春季 3.33 0.22 ** 11.56 0.18 * -3.74 0.26 ** 60.74 2.23 -
夏季 12.93 0.21 ** 20.13 0.19 ** 6.67 0.33 ** 208.82 5.82*
秋季 1.96 0.29 ** 10.42 0.32 ** -4.26 0.40 ** 64.06 2.02 -
冬季 -10.23 0.48 ** -0.67 0.41 ** -17.53 0.59 ** 4.47 0.37 *
全年 1.99 0.30 ** 10.35 0.28 ** -4.72 0.39 ** 338.16 9.26 **
表1  青海湖流域温度和降水季节变化趋势
图3  环青海湖地区降水变化趋势
图4  气温Mann-Kendall突变检验
季节 平均气温 平均最高气温 平均最低气温 降水量
滑动T
检验
M-K 累积
距平
滑动T
检验
M-K 累积
距平
滑动T
检验
M-K 累积
距平
滑动T
检验
M-K 累积
距平
春季 1996* 1996* 1996* 1996* 2002* 1996* 1986* 1989* 1986* 1982* 2000* 1982*
夏季 1994* 1996* 1994* 1993* 1996* 1994* 1987* 1990* 1987* 1978* 1978* 1978*
秋季 1987* 1987* 1987* 1989* 1992* 1989* 1997* 1991 1997* 1999* 2003* 1999*
冬季 1983* 1983* 1983* 1985* 1992* 1986* 1983* 1979* 1983* 1984* 1973* 1984*
全年 1986* 1992 1986* 1996* 1996* 1996* 1986* 1986 1986* 1984* 2002* 2002*
表2  青海湖流域气温和降水突变分析
图5  降水Mann-Kendall突变检验
图6  环青海湖地区气温和降水小波功率谱和小波方差图
图7  环青海湖地区气温、降水与季风变化关系
环流指数 平均气温 平均最高气温 平均最低气温 降水量
春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年
AO 0.06 0.08 0.46** 0.25 0.32* -0.15 -0.01 0.28* 0.09 0.10 0.25 0.23 0.46** 0.37** 0.37** 0.31* 0.38** 0.09 0.37** 0.31*
NAO -0.06 -0.08 0.26 0.08 0.07 -0.25 -0.17 0.11 -0.06 -0.06 0.13 0.08 0.26 0.18 0.18 0.22 0.33* -0.02 0.27* 0.22
SST 0.20 -0.07 0.03 0.15 0.17 0.12 -0.05 0.24 0.15 0.15 0.28* -0.07 -0.15 0.14 0.14 -0.18 -0.15 -0.35** 0.02 -0.18
MEI 0.16 -0.11 0.07 0.20 0.16 0.04 -0.13 0.27* 0.17 0.17 0.27* -0.02 -0.11 0.21 0.21 -0.10 -0.01 -0.36** 0.04 -0.10
SO -0.05 0.19 0.08 -0.03 0.01 0.03 0.19 -0.09 -0.12 -0.02 -0.15 0.15 0.20 -0.04 -0.04 0.19 0.13 0.33* -0.02 0.19
表3  大气环流指数与青海湖流域气温和降水变化相关性
气候因子 平均气温 平均最高气温
春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年
Hurst指数 0.64 0.79 0.67 0.64 0.59 0.61 0.59 0.82 0.61 0.53
持续性强度 较弱 较强 较弱 较弱 较弱 较弱 很强 较弱 很弱
气候因子 平均最低气温 降水量
春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 全年
Hurst指数 0.67 0.63 0.95 0.46 0.89 0.51 0.48 0.72 0.35 0.64
持续性强度 较强 较弱 很强 很弱 很强 很弱 很弱 较强 较弱 较弱
表4  青海湖流域各气候因子Hurst指数
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