NEX-BCC模式对秦岭及周边地区气候变化的模拟及预估

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.09.0933

基于美国国家航空航天局(NASA)最新发布的具有代表性浓度途径的全球逐日统计降尺度NEX-BCC_CGM1.1气候数据集,采用线性拟合、EOF分析等方法,评估其对秦岭及周边地区降水、温度的模拟能力,并分析中浓度(Rcp4.5)和高浓度(Rcp8.5) 2种情景下未来阶段秦岭及周边地区降水、日最高温度和日最低温度的可能变化,主要结论如下:① NEX-BCC_CGM1.1对秦岭及周边地区日平均降水量、最高温度和最低温度的年际变化趋势模拟较好,要素的空间分布和观测整体吻合,存在的不足在于要素值大小和极值频率与观测存在系统性的偏差。②Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5 2种情景下未来秦岭及周边地区日平均降水量呈增加的趋势;从不同量级降水频次来看,未来小雨发生频次减少,暴雨频次增加;2种情景下未来降水的空间模态均表现为全区一致降水增加型EOF1和秦岭南北反位相变化型EOF2,其中EOF1在21世纪中期处于正位相,降水显著偏多。③2种情景下,温度增温趋势十分明显,其中日平均最高温度增幅大于日平均最低温度,Rcp8.5情景增温幅度高于Rcp4.5。未来日最高温度大于36 ℃的高温频次增加,小于-15 ℃的低温频次减少,且Rcp8.5情景下高温(低温)频次增加(减少)幅度更加显著。2种情景下,日平均最高和最低温度均表现为全区一致性增温和南北反位相2种空间模态,但模态的空间分布存在较大差异。

关键词: NEX-BCC, 美国国家航空航天局, 气候变化, 秦岭地区, 预估

Based on NEX-BCC_CGM1.1 global daily statistics downscaling climate data set, the latest release by American National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which has representative concentration path, by using linear fitting and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis methods, the simulation capacity on precipitation and temperature in Qinling and its surrounding areas of this data sets was estimated and the possible changes of the precipitation, daily maximum and minimum temperature in the next stage under the two scenarios of Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5 were analyzed. Results showed that: ①The inter-annual trend of average daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature is simulated well by NEX-BCC_CGM1.1. The spatial distribution was in accordance with the observations. The deficiency is that the elements value and extreme frequency have systemic bias compared with the observations. ②Average daily precipitation will have increasing trend in the future in Qinling and its surrounding areas under the two scenarios of Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5. For different level precipitation frequency, light rains will reduce and rainstorms will increase in the future. The spatial modes of precipitation in the future are shown as the variation of the uniform increase in the whole region (EOF1) and anti-phase change in northern and southern Qinling (EOF2). EOF1 will be positive phase in medium-term in the Mid-21^st century, where there will be significantly more means precipitation. ③Under the two scenarios, temperature warming trend is obvious, daily maximum temperature increasing trend is greater than minimum temperature, and the amplitude of temperature increase under Rcp8.5 is higher than Rcp4.5. The frequency of daily maximum temperatures greater than 36 ℃ will increase and low temperature less than -15 ℃ will reduce in the future, at the same time, high temperature (low temperature) increase (decrease) rate is more pronounced under Rcp8.5. Average daily maximum and minimum temperatures are shown uniform warming in the whole region (EOF1) and anti-phase change in northern and southern Qinling under two scenarios, but the spatial distribution has great difference.

Key words: NEX-BCC, NASA, Climate change, Qingling Mountain area, Projection.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 1961—2005 年秦岭地区日平均降水(单位:mm/d)和最高、最低温度演变特征(单位:℃)
(a),(b),(c)为观测;(d),(e),(f)为模式模拟;图中虚线为要素的年际变化,直线为线性拟合,实线为11 年滑动平均

Fig.1 Daily average precipitation (unit: mm/d),the evolvement of maximum temperature and minimum temperature (unit: ℃) from 1961 to 2005 in Qinling and surrounding areas
(a), (b), (c) are observation value; (d), (e), (f) are simulated value. Dotted line for inter-annual variability, straight line for linear fitting, thick solid lines for moving average of 11 years

图2 NEX-BCC模拟降水、最高温度、最低温度和对应时段观测数据的均值和方差
(a),(b),(c)为观测;(d),(e),(f)为模式模拟;填色为均值,等值线为方差

Fig.2 Mean and variance of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature of observation and NEX-BCC model simulation
(a),(b),(c) are observation;(d),(e),(f) are NEX-BCC model simulation; The shaded and contour is for mean and variance respectivl respectively

图2 NEX-BCC模拟降水、最高温度、最低温度和对应时段观测数据的均值和方差
(a),(b),(c)为观测;(d),(e),(f)为模式模拟;填色为均值,等值线为方差

图3 1961—2005 年秦岭地区NEX-BCC模拟小雨、暴雨以上量级降水和最高温度、最低温度发生频率与观测的对比
(a),(b),(c),(d)为观测;(e),(f),(g),(h) 为NEX-BCC模式模拟;图中虚线为要素的年际变化,直线为线性拟合,实线为11 年滑动平均

Fig.3 Frequency of light rain and above magnitude precipitation, torrential rain and above magnitude precipitation,maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 1961 to 2005 in Qinling and surrounding areas
(a), (b), (c) ,(d) are observation frequency; (e), (f), (g), (h) are NEX-BCC simulated value. Dotted line for inter-annual variability, straight line for linear fitting, thick solid lines for moving average of 11 years

图4 1961—2005 年秦岭地区NEX-BCC历史模拟场的泰勒分析
(a)降水、最高温度和最低温度的泰勒分析;(b)小雨以上、暴雨以上、高温、低温发生频率的泰勒分析

Fig.4 The Taylor diagrams of NEX-BCC model historical simulation fields from 1961 to 2005 in Qingling and surrounding areas
(a)Taylor analysis of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature;(b)Taylor analysis of the frequency for light rain, maximum temperature and minimum temperature

图4 1961—2005 年秦岭地区NEX-BCC历史模拟场的泰勒分析
(a)降水、最高温度和最低温度的泰勒分析;(b)小雨以上、暴雨以上、高温、低温发生频率的泰勒分析

图5 Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5情景下秦岭地区未来降水量(a,d)、最高温度(b,e)和最低温度(c,f)的时间演变
(a), (b),(c)为Rcp4.5情景的时间演变;(d),(e),(f)为Rcp8.5情景的时间演变;图中虚线为要素的年际变化,直线为线性拟合,实线为11 年滑动平均

Fig.5 Time evolution of future precipitation(a,d), maximum temperature(b,e) and minimum temperature (c,f) under the scenarios Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5 in Qinling and surrounding areas
(a),(b) and (c) are for Rcp4.5; (d),(e),(f) are for Rcp8.5; Dotted line for inter-annual variability, straight line for linear fitting, thick solid lines for moving average of 11 years

表1 不同情景下温度、降水未来的变化值

Table 1 The magnitude change of maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation under different scenarios

要素	Rcp4.5情景		Rcp8.5情景
要素	量值/10a	频次/10a	量值/10a	频次/10a
降水	0.005	0.751(0.009)	0.006	-0.666(0.008)
最高温度	0.38 ℃	0.82	0.71 ℃	3.13
最低温度	0.318 ℃	-0.77	0.519 ℃	-0.96

表1 不同情景下温度、降水未来的变化值

Table 1 The magnitude change of maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation under different scenarios

要素	Rcp4.5情景		Rcp8.5情景
要素	量值/10a	频次/10a	量值/10a	频次/10a
降水	0.005	0.751(0.009)	0.006	-0.666(0.008)
最高温度	0.38 ℃	0.82	0.71 ℃	3.13
最低温度	0.318 ℃	-0.77	0.519 ℃	-0.96

表1 不同情景下温度、降水未来的变化值

Table 1 The magnitude change of maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation under different scenarios

要素	Rcp4.5情景		Rcp8.5情景
要素	量值/10a	频次/10a	量值/10a	频次/10a
降水	0.005	0.751(0.009)	0.006	-0.666(0.008)
最高温度	0.38 ℃	0.82	0.71 ℃	3.13
最低温度	0.318 ℃	-0.77	0.519 ℃	-0.96

表1 不同情景下温度、降水未来的变化值

Table 1 The magnitude change of maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation under different scenarios

要素	Rcp4.5情景		Rcp8.5情景
要素	量值/10a	频次/10a	量值/10a	频次/10a
降水	0.005	0.751(0.009)	0.006	-0.666(0.008)
最高温度	0.38 ℃	0.82	0.71 ℃	3.13
最低温度	0.318 ℃	-0.77	0.519 ℃	-0.96

图6 Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5情景下秦岭地区未来小雨以上量级降水频率(a,e)、暴雨以上量级降水频率(b,f)、高温频率(c,g)、低温频率(d,h)的时间演变
(a)~(d)为Rcp4.5情景; (e)~(h) 为Rcp8.5情景;图中虚线为要素的年际变化,直线为线性拟合,实线为11 年滑动平均

Fig.6 Future frequency evolution of light rain and above magnitude precipitation (a,e), torrential rain and above magnitude precipitation (b,f), maximum temperature (c,g) and minimum temperature (d,h) in Qinling and surrounding areas
(a)~(d) are observation frequency; (e)~(h) are NEX-BCC simulated value. Dotted line for inter-annual variability,straight line for linear fitting, thick solid lines for moving average of 11 years

图7 Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5情景下秦岭地区未来降水量、最高温度和最低温度的空间模态
(a)~(c)为第一空间模态EOF1;(d)~(f)为第二空间模态EOF2;色斑图Rcp4.5,等值线Rcp8.5

Fig.7 Spatial modes of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature in Qinling and surrounding areas under the scenarios Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5
(a),(b) and (c) are for EOF1;(d),(e) and (f) are for EOF2. Shaded is for Rcp4.5 and contour is for Rcp8.5

图7 Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5情景下秦岭地区未来降水量、最高温度和最低温度的空间模态
(a)~(c)为第一空间模态EOF1;(d)~(f)为第二空间模态EOF2;色斑图Rcp4.5,等值线Rcp8.5

图8 Rcp4.5情景下未来降水、日平均最高、最低温度EOF空间模态的标准化序列时间系数
(a)~(c)分别为降水,日平均最高、最低温度第一空间模态的时间系数;(d)~(f)分别为降水、日平均较高、最低温度第二空间模态的时间系数第二模态;图中曲线为7年滑动平均,柱状图为标准化时间序列

Fig.8 Normalized time series and its 11-year running mean of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature under the scenarios Rcp4.5
(a)~(c) are precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for EOF1; (d)~(f) are precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for EOF2; The bars and curve is for normalzed time series and 7-years running mean respectivhy

图9 Rcp8.5情景下未来降水、日平均最高、最低温度EOF空间模态的标准化序列时间系数
(a)~(c)分别为降水,日平均最高、最低温度第一空间模态的时间系数;(d)~(f)分别为降水,日平均最高、最低温度第二空间模态的时间系数但为第二模态;图中曲线为7年滑动平均,柱状图为标准化时间序列

Fig.9 Normalized time series and its 11-year running mean of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature under the scenarios Rcp8.5
(a)~(c) are precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for EOF1;(d)~(f) are precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for EOF2; The bars and curve is for normalzed time series and 7-years running mean respectivhy

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Simulation and Projection of Climate Change in Qinling and Surrounding Areas with NEX-BCC Model