冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.05.517

冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究是以探索冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念为前提和基础,以冰冻圈变化的自然影响为链接点,以社会经济影响研究为突破,以脆弱性研究为桥梁与纽带,以应对与适应冰冻圈变化影响、风险为目的的冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向。探讨了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念,并以影响—脆弱性—适应为主线,针对冰冻圈变化的社会经济影响研究、脆弱性研究、适应研究内容及其关键科学问题、脆弱性评估模型、尺度问题进行了较为详细的阐述,初步搭建了中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系。基于冰冻圈要素的多样性、变化影响的复杂性与显著的区域差异性,从2个梯度勾绘了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究格局与空间布局。中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究除深化冰冻圈变化的影响与脆弱性研究之外,应加强不同利益相关者协同设计、共同参与的冰冻圈变化适应应用研究,并关注冰冻圈灾害风险、渐变风险研究。

关键词: 冰冻圈变化, 影响, 脆弱性, 适应, 研究体系

Vulnerability and adaptation study of the cryosphere and its changes is a novel research direction in the field of cryospheric research. The exploration and understanding of vulnerability concept of the cryosphere and its changes is the prerequisite and foundation of the study system. In addition, the research content includes social and economic impacts of cryospheric changes, which is the breakthrough point, the vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the different scales of human-environment systems to the effects of cryospheric changes, which is the bridge between impact and adaptation, and the option and pathway of coping with and adapting to the effects and risk of cryospheric changes, which is the goal. In this paper, the vulnerability concept of Chinese cryosphere and its changes is firstly defined and discussed. Impact, vulnerability and adaptation as a main line, the research contents and their respective key scientific issues of social and economic impacts, vulnerability and adaptation of cryosphere change, vulnerability assessment model, and study scale are elaborated. Thus, a research frame of the vulnerability and adaptation is initially built in the kingdom of Chinese cryospheric sciences. The component of Chinese cryosphere is various, including glacier, frozen ground, snow, river ice, lake ice, and sea ice. The variations and impacts of these elements are complicated, and different from one region to another. The vulnerability and adaptation study pattern and spatial layout of Chinese cryosphere and its changes are determined in the paper on the basis of the consideration of abovementioned diversity, complexity and regional differences. The applied study on cryosphere change adaptation of co-design and joint participation for different stakeholders should be strengthened and cryospheric disaster risk, especially gradient risk should also be paid high attention to in addition to the further study of the impact and vulnerability of the cryosphere change.

Key words: Cryosphere change, Effect, Vulnerability, Adaptation, Research frame.

中图分类号:

P343.6

图1 冰冻圈科学树

Fig.1 Sketch showing the tree of Cryospheric Sciences

图2 中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念框架

Fig.2 The concept framework of the vulnerabilities of Chinese Cryosphere and its changes

图3 冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究内容与关键科学问题

Fig.3 The research content and the key scientific questions on the vulnerabilities and adaptations of Chinese Cryosphere and its changes

图4 冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究尺度

Fig.4 The study scales of the vulnerabilities and adaptations of Chinese Cryosphere and its changes

图5 中国冰冻圈作用区、脆弱性与适应典型研究地区/流域示意图

Fig.5 Sketch map showing the range of Chinese Cryosphere action area, vulnerability and adaptation typical study areas and basins in China

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摘要

Research Frame of Vulnerability and Adaptation for the Cryosphere and its changes