气候变化经济影响研究热点的足迹可视化:整合被引文献和突现词

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.08.0865

地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (8): 865 -873. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.08.0865

李宁(

), 刘丽, 张正涛, 冯介玲, 陈曦, 白扣

1. 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学,北京 100875
2. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京师范大学,北京 100875

收稿日期:2017-12-15 修回日期:2018-05-29 出版日期:2018-08-10
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划重点专项课题“全球变化人口与经济系统风险评估模型与模式研究”(编号:2016YFA0602403);国家自然科学基金项目“沙尘暴重现期被估计偏长问题的理论与方法研究”(编号:41775103);资助.

Visualization of Climate Change and Economic Research Hotspots:Integrating Cited References and Burst Keywords

Ning Li( ), Li Liu, Zhengtao Zhang, Jieling Feng, Xi Chen, Kou Bai

1.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2017-12-15 Revised:2018-05-29 Online:2018-08-10 Published:2018-09-14
About author:
First author: Li Ning(1958-), female, Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province,Professor. Research areas include natural disaster and risk management research. E-mail: ningli@bnu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Key R & D Program of China-Global Change and Mitigation Project “Global change risk of population and economic system: Mechanism and assessment”(No.2016YFA0602403);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Research on the theory and method of the return period of dust storms is estimated to be longer”(No.41775103).

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气候变化经济影响的研究受到各国政府与学者的广泛关注,是国内外的研究热点。以Web of Science核心数据库中检索的14 796篇与气候变化经济影响相关的文献为基础,整合文献共被引网络和突现词共现网络,对气候变化经济影响研究热点的足迹进行可视化分析。研究结果显示,文献数量整体上呈现指数上升趋势。时间上,研究热点在2007年以前,主要集中在气候变化的归因分析(化石燃料、土地利用变化等造成的CO₂排放增多),对自然生态系统(农业产量、粮食安全、北极冰盖、海岸带等)和社会经济系统(人类健康、能源、工业等)的影响及经济影响评估,演变到对未来气候变化情景、CO₂的减排及应对和减缓气候变化等的关注。2007年以后随着IPCC第四次评估报告及斯特恩报告的发布,进一步加强了气候变化影响的成本效益评估、脆弱性及生物能源等方面的研究,热点聚焦气候变化经济学及经济贸易。空间上,研究热点的发文主要来自于美国、加拿大、西欧(英国、法国、德国、意大利、荷兰等)、澳大利亚和中国等国家。

关键词: 气候变化, 经济影响, 研究热点, 时空变化足迹, 可视化

The study of the economic impact of climate change has received extensive attention from governments and scholars around the world. This paper based on 14 796 literatures that related to climate change and economic from the core database of Web of Science. Integrating the method of co-citation network and burst keywords co-occurrence network to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of research hotspots on climate change and economic impact. The results show that the global literature's number keep a exponential growth trend, rapidly after 2007. Before 2007, the research hotspots primarily centered on the climate change attribution analysis (increased CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels, land use changes, etc.), the impact on natural ecosystems (agricultural production, food security, Arctic ice caps, coastal zones, etc.) and socio-economic System (human health, energy, industry, etc.), and the assessment of economic impac and then focused on the future scenarios of climate change and CO₂ abatement and how to adapt and mitigate the climate change. After 2007, with the introduction of IPCC AR4 and Stern report, further strengthened the research on cost-effective assessment of climate change impact, vulnerability, bioenergy and so on. The research hotspots focus on economics of climate change and trade. In space, the literatures of research hotspots were mainly come from the United States, Canada, Western European countries (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands), Australia and China.

Key words: Climate change, Economic impact, Research hotspots, Temporal-spatial changes, Visualization analysis.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 1970—2016年气候变化经济影响研究的文献数量年度分布图

Fig.1 Annual distribution of literatures on the climate change and economic impact from 1970 to 2016

图1 1970—2016年气候变化经济影响研究的文献数量年度分布图

Fig.1 Annual distribution of literatures on the climate change and economic impact from 1970 to 2016

图2 高频次被引文献显示的研究热点时间演变足迹(1970—2016年)

Fig.2 Temporal trends of research hotspots showed by high frequency cited references from 1970 to 2016

图2 高频次被引文献显示的研究热点时间演变足迹(1970—2016年)

Fig.2 Temporal trends of research hotspots showed by high frequency cited references from 1970 to 2016

表1 1970—2016年高频次被引的文献及相关信息列表

Table 1 List of high frequency cited references and related information from 1970 to 2016

研究热点	文献名	作者	发表时间	被引频次
#0气候变化经济学	The Economics of Global Warming Rolling the DICE: An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases	Cline W R Nordhaus W D	1992 1993	61 47
#9 CO₂排放	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	1990	42
#5农业 #11北极冰盖	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Contribution of Working Group II to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	McG Tegart W J等	1990	32
#6适应 #8 CO₂减排	Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Watson R T等 Mccarthy J J等	1996 2001	35 84
#10气候变率	Climate change 2001: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	2001	78
#3未来情景预估	Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Nakicenovic N等	2000	102
#1脆弱性	Vulnerability Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Adger W N Parry M L等	2006 2007	97 150
#7粮食安全 #4随机波动	The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030	Stern N Lobell D B等	2007 2008	256 104
#2土地利用 #1脆弱性	Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Use of US Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-use Change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Solomon S等 Searchinger T等 Stocker T F等	2007 2008 2013	308 123 88

表1 1970—2016年高频次被引的文献及相关信息列表

Table 1 List of high frequency cited references and related information from 1970 to 2016

研究热点	文献名	作者	发表时间	被引频次
#0气候变化经济学	The Economics of Global Warming Rolling the DICE: An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases	Cline W R Nordhaus W D	1992 1993	61 47
#9 CO₂排放	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	1990	42
#5农业 #11北极冰盖	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Contribution of Working Group II to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	McG Tegart W J等	1990	32
#6适应 #8 CO₂减排	Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Watson R T等 Mccarthy J J等	1996 2001	35 84
#10气候变率	Climate change 2001: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	2001	78
#3未来情景预估	Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Nakicenovic N等	2000	102
#1脆弱性	Vulnerability Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Adger W N Parry M L等	2006 2007	97 150
#7粮食安全 #4随机波动	The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030	Stern N Lobell D B等	2007 2008	256 104
#2土地利用 #1脆弱性	Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Use of US Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-use Change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Solomon S等 Searchinger T等 Stocker T F等	2007 2008 2013	308 123 88

表1 1970—2016年高频次被引的文献及相关信息列表

Table 1 List of high frequency cited references and related information from 1970 to 2016

研究热点	文献名	作者	发表时间	被引频次
#0气候变化经济学	The Economics of Global Warming Rolling the DICE: An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases	Cline W R Nordhaus W D	1992 1993	61 47
#9 CO₂排放	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	1990	42
#5农业 #11北极冰盖	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Contribution of Working Group II to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	McG Tegart W J等	1990	32
#6适应 #8 CO₂减排	Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Watson R T等 Mccarthy J J等	1996 2001	35 84
#10气候变率	Climate change 2001: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	2001	78
#3未来情景预估	Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Nakicenovic N等	2000	102
#1脆弱性	Vulnerability Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Adger W N Parry M L等	2006 2007	97 150
#7粮食安全 #4随机波动	The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030	Stern N Lobell D B等	2007 2008	256 104
#2土地利用 #1脆弱性	Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Use of US Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-use Change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Solomon S等 Searchinger T等 Stocker T F等	2007 2008 2013	308 123 88

表1 1970—2016年高频次被引的文献及相关信息列表

Table 1 List of high frequency cited references and related information from 1970 to 2016

研究热点	文献名	作者	发表时间	被引频次
#0气候变化经济学	The Economics of Global Warming Rolling the DICE: An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases	Cline W R Nordhaus W D	1992 1993	61 47
#9 CO₂排放	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	1990	42
#5农业 #11北极冰盖	Climate Change 1990: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Contribution of Working Group II to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	McG Tegart W J等	1990	32
#6适应 #8 CO₂减排	Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Watson R T等 Mccarthy J J等	1996 2001	35 84
#10气候变率	Climate change 2001: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Houghton J H等	2001	78
#3未来情景预估	Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Nakicenovic N等	2000	102
#1脆弱性	Vulnerability Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Adger W N Parry M L等	2006 2007	97 150
#7粮食安全 #4随机波动	The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030	Stern N Lobell D B等	2007 2008	256 104
#2土地利用 #1脆弱性	Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Use of US Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-use Change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	Solomon S等 Searchinger T等 Stocker T F等	2007 2008 2013	308 123 88

图3 高频次被引文献显示的2007年之后研究热点的时间演变足迹

Fig.3 Temporal trends of research hotspots showed by high frequency cited references after 2007

图3 高频次被引文献显示的2007年之后研究热点的时间演变足迹

Fig.3 Temporal trends of research hotspots showed by high frequency cited references after 2007

图4 高频次突现词显示的研究热点空间分布足迹(1970—2016年)

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of research hotspots showed by high frequency burst keywords from 1970 to 2016

图4 高频次突现词显示的研究热点空间分布足迹(1970—2016年)

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of research hotspots showed by high frequency burst keywords from 1970 to 2016

表2 世界主要发达国家在气候变化经济影响领域的发文数量

Table 2 The major developed countries' number of publications on climate change and economic impact

国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇
美国	4 152	加拿大	923	瑞士	433
英国	1 862	荷兰	812	瑞典	422
澳大利亚	1 360	法国	634	印度	368
中国	1 348	意大利	628	奥地利	330
德国	1 235	西班牙	592	日本	321

表2 世界主要发达国家在气候变化经济影响领域的发文数量

Table 2 The major developed countries' number of publications on climate change and economic impact

国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇
美国	4 152	加拿大	923	瑞士	433
英国	1 862	荷兰	812	瑞典	422
澳大利亚	1 360	法国	634	印度	368
中国	1 348	意大利	628	奥地利	330
德国	1 235	西班牙	592	日本	321

表2 世界主要发达国家在气候变化经济影响领域的发文数量

Table 2 The major developed countries' number of publications on climate change and economic impact

国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇
美国	4 152	加拿大	923	瑞士	433
英国	1 862	荷兰	812	瑞典	422
澳大利亚	1 360	法国	634	印度	368
中国	1 348	意大利	628	奥地利	330
德国	1 235	西班牙	592	日本	321

表2 世界主要发达国家在气候变化经济影响领域的发文数量

Table 2 The major developed countries' number of publications on climate change and economic impact

国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇	国家	发文数量 /篇
美国	4 152	加拿大	923	瑞士	433
英国	1 862	荷兰	812	瑞典	422
澳大利亚	1 360	法国	634	印度	368
中国	1 348	意大利	628	奥地利	330
德国	1 235	西班牙	592	日本	321

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