河流化学风化是全球地球化学循环的关键环节，其动态变化对于深入理解和评估气候变化影响至关重要。结合Lechuga-Crespo 模型与随机森林算法，并利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划未来不同气候情景的数据集，对1980—2100 年全球岩石化学风化离子通量［Ca²⁺、Mg²⁺、Na⁺、Alkalinity（HCO^-₃ 和CO₃2^-）、SO₂^4-和Cl^-］的长期动态变化及其地理特征进行了系统评估。结果显示，全球岩石化学风化离子通量在不同气候情景下变化显著，尤其在高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下，预计全球岩石化学风化离子通量总量将大幅增加，至2100 年其平均增幅可达35%，届时全球总量将达到6.6×10⁹ Mg/a。东南亚、南亚次大陆和撒哈拉以南的非洲地区是未来化学风化作用的高值核心区域。降水被确定为影响岩石化学风化离子通量变化的最显著因子（显著增加的面积占比为99%；贡献率为32%~33%）。不同岩性对气候变化的响应差异主要受矿物组成和构特性的制约，其中碳酸盐沉积岩和硅质碎屑沉积岩在全球变暖背景下均表现出加速风化的趋势。引入长期动态模拟和未来情景预测，并结合多种气候驱动因子，为岩石学风化离子通量的未来变化提供了更为系统和全面的评估。这种多维度分析为岩石化学风化在全球碳循环和环境响应中的作用提供了扎实的科学依据。

Riverine chemical weathering is a vital part of the global biogeochemical cycle, and its fluctuations are key to fully understanding and evaluat the effects of climate change on the Earth system. However, large uncertainties still remain regarding the long-term evolution of chemical weathering and its spatial responses under future climate scenarios. In this study, the Lechuga-Crespo model was integrated with the Random Forest algorithm, and future climate scenario datasets from CMIP6 were employed to systematically assess the long-term dynamic variations and geographical characteristics of global ionic fluxes from rock chemical weathering (ICWR), including Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, Alkalinity (HCO-3, CO23-), SO24- and Cl-, during the period from 1980 to 2100. The results reveal that global ICWR exhibits significant variations under different climate scenarios. In particular, under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the global total ICWR is projected to increase substantially. By the end of the 21st century, the global total ionic flux is expected to rise by approximately 35% compared with the historical baseline, reaching about 6.6×109 Mg/a in 2100. From a spatial perspective, Southeast Asia, the South Asian subcontinent, and sub-Saharan Africa are identified as the core highvalue regions of future chemical weathering intensity, indicating strong regional heterogeneity in the response of weathering processes to climate change. Among the climatic drivers, precipitation is determined to be the most influential factor controlling ICWR variability, accounting for approximately 32%~33% of the overall contribution, with nearly 99% of the global land area exhibiting a significant increasing trend associated with precipitation changes. Further investigation into weathering mechanisms shows that the differential responses of various lithologies to climate change are primarily governed by their mineral composition and structural properties. Both carbonate rocks and silicate clastic rocks exhibit accelerated weathering trends under the context of global warming, highlighting the important role of lithological characteristics in regulating chemical weathering intensity. By introducing long-term dynamic simulations and future scenario projections and integrating multiple climatic drivers, this study provides a more systematic and comprehensive assessment of future ICWR changes. The multidimensional analytical framework established here offers a robust scientific basis for understanding the role of rock chemical weathering in the global carbon cycle and its environmental responses to ongoing climate change.