夏季极端高温是我国最主要的气象灾害之一，对人们的健康与生命、社会经济的稳定发展 以及生态环境的平衡等均造成严重威胁。面向防范和应对高温相关灾害风险的国家重大需求，基 于科学新认识我们自主研发了我国夏季极端高温预测模型系统并开展了实际应用。2018 年以来 该预测模型系统的实际预测表明，其总体上能够比较准确地预测出我国夏季极端高温的空间分布 与异常，展现出稳定而良好的预报效果。2025 年5 月运用该模型系统开展的预测显示，2025 年夏 季我国平均高温日数为12.55 天，比常年（1991—2020 年气候平均态）偏多2.69 天，极端高温影响总 体明显偏重、灾害风险明显偏高、区域差异性大。长江中下游地区、华南地区、四川盆地、新疆南 部、江苏与安徽北部高温日数偏多最为明显。京津平原地区、山东、河南、陕西南部地区、东北少部 分地区、甘肃部分地区以及宁夏北部等地极端高温明显偏多。最后，针对我国夏季极端高温的防 范提出了建议。

Abstract：Summer hot extremes, one of major meteorological disasters over China, have severe impacts on people's lives and health, economic and social development, and natural ecosystem. To address the nation’s critical need to prevent and deal with hot-temperature-related disaster risks, we have independently developed a prediction model system for summer hot extremes over China based on obtained new scientific understanding. The developed model system can relatively accurately predict the spatial pattern and anomalies of summer hot extremes since 2018 over China, signifying stable and good prediction skills. In May 2025, by using the prediction model system we predicted that summer hot days in 2024 will be 12.55 days, which are 2.69 more days than those in normal years (1991-2020 average); hot extremes in this summer will have more severe effects, significant above-average disaster risks and larger regional differences. The most significant more-than-normal hot extremes will occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, South China, the Sichuan Basin, southern Xinjiang, northern Jiangsu and Anhui, followed by Beijing-Tianjin Plain, Shandong, Henan, southern Shaanxi, parts of Northeast China, parts of Gansu, and northern Ningxia. We further provide response suggestions for preventing and reducing hot extremes over China.