夏季极端高温是我国最主要的气象灾害之一，对人们的健康与生命、社会经济的稳定发展以及生态环境的平衡等均造成严重威胁。面向防范和应对高温相关灾害风险的国家重大需求，基于科学新认识张井勇团队自主研发了我国夏季极端高温预测模型系统并开展了实际应用。2018年以来该预测模型系统的实际预测表明，其总体上能够比较准确地预测出我国夏季极端高温的空间分布与异常，展现出稳定而良好的预报效果。2025年5月运用该模型系统开展的预测显示，2025年夏季我国平均高温日数为12.55天，比常年（1991—2020年气候平均态）偏多2.69天，极端高温影响总体明显偏重、灾害风险明显偏高、区域差异性大。长江中下游地区、华南地区、四川盆地、新疆南部、江苏与安徽北部高温日数偏多最为明显。京津平原地区、山东、河南、陕西南部地区、东北少部分地区、甘肃部分地区以及宁夏北部等地极端高温日数明显偏多。最后，针对我国夏季极端高温的防范提出了建议。

Summer heat extremes are among the major meteorological disasters in China, posing severe threats to public health, economic and social development, and natural ecosystems. To address the nation's urgent need for managing heat-related disaster risks, we independently developed a prediction model system for summer heat extremes in China, based on new scientific insights. Since 2018, the model system has demonstrated stable and reliable predictive capabilities, relatively accurately capturing the spatial patterns and anomalies of summer heat extremes. In May 2025, using this system, we predicted that the number of summer hot days in 2024 would be 12.55 days, which is 2.69 days more than the average of normal years (1991-2020). The forecast also indicated more severe heat extremes, elevated disaster risks, and pronounced regional differences. The most significant above-normal heat extremes were expected in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, South China, the Sichuan Basin, southern Xinjiang, northern Jiangsu, and northern Anhui. These were followed by the Beijing-Tianjin Plain, Shandong, Henan, southern Shaanxi, parts of northeastern China, parts of Gansu, and northern Ningxia. Based on these findings, we also provide response recommendations to prevent and mitigate the impacts of summer heat extremes across China.