基于“正排放时期—净零时期—净负时期”的划分方法，建立了面向碳中和的气候变化预 估与风险研究新框架。聚焦在“一带一路”主要区域，系统开展了SSP1-1.9 和SSP1-2.6 两种可持续 发展路径情景下面向碳中和的未来平均与极端气候变化预估与灾害风险研究。在全球碳中和时 期，预计“一带一路”主要区域平均与极端气候变化将呈现新特征新格局，气候灾害风险将出现新 变化。建立的新框架为气候变化未来预估与灾害风险评估提供了新方案，建议正在启动与开展的 联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第七次气候变化评估报告及将来的气候变化评估报告应纳入 面向碳中和的气候变化评估作为重要部分，为人类社会共同应对气候变化和实现可持续发展提供 新认识。最后，讨论了人工智能技术在未来气候变化预估与风险评估中的应用。

A new framework for studies of climate change projections and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality was built up, based on a division method of positive emissions period-net zero period-net negative period. Focusing on main Belt and Road regions, future mean and extreme climate change projections and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality were systematically addressed under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 sustainable development pathways. It is projected that over global carbon neutrality or net-zero periods, climate change will exhibit new characteristics and patterns, and disaster risks will undergo new changes over the main Belt and Road regions. The newly developed framework provides a new scheme for climate change projections and disaster risks assessment. It is proposed that the seventh assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the other future assessment report on climate change should include climate change projections and disaster risks assessment oriented towards carbon neutrality, which can provide new scientific knowledge for jointly dealing with climate change and achieving sustainable development. In addition, the role and application of Artificial Intelligence in future climate change projections and climate disasters assessment are discussed.