地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 816 -825. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.067

研究论文 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带多灾种综合风险评价与防范的思考
王军 1, 2, 3( ),江琴 1, 2, 3   
  1. 1.华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200241
    2.华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241
    3.华东师范大学上海城市公共安全研究中心,上海 200241
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-21 修回日期:2020-07-04 出版日期:2020-08-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目“多灾种重大灾害风险评价、综合防范与城市韧性研究”(18ZDA105);国家重点研发计划项目“多灾种重大自然灾害综合风险评估与防范技术研究”(2018YFC1508803)

Integrated Risk Assessment and Governance of Multi-hazards in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Jun Wang 1, 2, 3( ),Qin Jiang 1, 2, 3   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    2.School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    3.Research Center for Urban Public Security, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2020-05-21 Revised:2020-07-04 Online:2020-08-10 Published:2020-09-15
  • About author:Wang Jun(1975-), male, Hanzhong City, Shaanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include disaster risk assessment and risk management. E-mail: jwang@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    the Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China “Study on risk assessment, comprehensive prevention and urban resilience of multiple major disasters”(18ZDA105);The National Key Research and Development Program of China “Study on comprehensive risk assessment and prevention technology of multiple major natural disasters”(2018YFC1508803)

建设长江经济带是现阶段、新常态下推进中国经济持续、稳定增长的重大战略举措之一。全面提高长江经济带应对多灾害风险的水平,是保障长江经济带战略实施的前提。基于多灾害综合风险理论,对长江经济带核心城市(上海、武汉和重庆)主要灾害风险以及重大灾害风险——地震灾害链进行深入剖析,阐述了长江经济带多灾种综合风险防范的现状与存在问题。主要问题包括:多灾种综合风险形成机制认识不足、设防水平较低、区域协同联动机制不健全、保险与再保险在风险转移中的作用发挥不够等。最终提出:加强综合风险形成机制研究和防范能力测评、提升多灾种综合风险防范的设防水平、建立多灾种多方联动灾害监测预警系统、强化重大灾害风险管理及避难设施建设、加快建设基于多灾种综合风险的巨灾保险制度等提升策略,以期为长江经济带多灾种重大灾害风险研究提供理论参考。

The construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the major strategic initiatives to promote the sustained and steady growth of China's economy at current and the new normal stages. Comprehensive enhancing the governance levels of various natural disaster risks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the basic guarantee for promoting the implementation of the development strategy. Based on the multi-hazard integrated risk theory, the main disaster risks of the core cities (Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing) of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the major risk-earthquake disaster chain were systematically analyzed. The status and existing problems of multi-hazard integrated risk governance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were expounded in this paper. The main problems include: Insufficient understanding of multi-hazard integrated risk formation mechanism; low level of safety fortification; Imperfect regional coordination and linkage mechanism; and insufficient role of insurance and reinsurance in risk transfer. Finally, the overall promotion strategies were proposed, including establishing multi-hazard integrated risk identification mechanism and governance capability evaluation system; comprehensive improving the fortification level of multi-hazard integrated risk prevention; establishing multi-hazard and multi-party linkage disaster monitoring and early warning systems; strengthening major disaster risk management and evacuation facilities construction; accelerating the construction of catastrophe insurance systems based on multi-hazard risks. This will provide a theoretical reference for major disaster risks studies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

中图分类号: 

图1 长江经济带主要面临的自然灾害
Fig.1 The major natural disasters in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
图2 上海台风灾害链系统
Fig.2 The system of typhoon disaster chain in Shanghai
图3 2016630日至76日武汉暴雨内涝灾害链
Fig.3 Strom rainfall-waterlogging disaster chain from June 30 to July 6, 2016 in Wuhan
图4 重庆主要地质灾害链类型
Fig.4 Major geological disaster chain types in Chongqing
图5 不同地区地震灾害链
Fig.5 Earthquake disaster chains in different region
图6 综合灾害风险防范的结构优化模式[ 37 ]
Fig.6 Structure optimization mode of integrated disaster risk governance[ 37 ]
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