白云山地表水重金属健康风险不确定性评价

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.09.1036

为了解广州市白云山地表水重金属健康风险水平，测量了白云山山南、山北9个采样点的水体温度，pH值，Cd，As，Cr，Hg，Pb，Mn，Cu，Zn和Ni等物化指标，构建了白云山地表水重金属不确定性健康风险评价模型，对评价标准进行模糊化分级，确定了隶属度和风险等级的归属。通过对比不确定性模型和确定性模型的评价结果发现：2012年广州市白云山地表水重金属健康风险级别较高，山南总风险值为5.19×10^-4和1.14×10^-4，山北总风险值为6.88×10^-4和2.33×10^-4，都处于中—高等级及其以上，甚至达到极高风险级别，且山北地表水重金属健康风险等级较山南高；不确定性地表水重金属健康风险评价模型相比确定性评价模型更加真实、合理；相关参考文献中有关不确定性评价模型的健康风险总分值和风险等级隶属度公式等问题有待进一步商榷。

关键词: 健康风险评价, 不确定性评价, 地表水, 重金属, 广州白云山

The water environmental health risk assessment relates environmental pollution with human health, taking its risk degree as evaluation index, quantitatively describing the risk that pollution does great harm to human body. To understand the surface water’s heavy metal health risk in Guangzhou Baiyun Mountain, this study measured the nine sampling points in Baiyun Mountain’s south mountain and north mountain, including these physical and chemical indicators, such as water temperature, pH value, Cd, As, Cr, Hg, Pb, Mn, Cu,Zn and Ni, constructing the uncertainty evaluation model of the surface water’s heavy metal health risk in Baiyun Mountain(heavy metal including radioactive substances, chemical carcinogens and body toxic substances, etc.), having a fuzzy classification of the health risk assessment standard of the surface water’s heavy metal, further determining the membership degree and the belonging of the risk grade. By comparing the evaluation results of the uncertainty model and the deterministic model, the study found that: the surface water’s heavy metal health risk level was higher in Guangzhou Baiyun Mountain in 2012, being of the high grade and above, even achieving the highest grade; the surface water’s heavy metal health risk level of the north mountain was higher than the south mountain; the uncertainty evaluation model of the surface water’s heavy metal health risk was more reasonable and comprehensive to reflect the real situation of the surface water’s heavy metal quality concentration than the deterministic model. Besides, in the relevant references these questions on the total score of the health risk of the uncertainty evaluation model, the membership degree formula of the risk grade, etc. need further discussion.

Key words: Health risk assessment, Uncertainty evaluation, Surface water, Heavy metal, Guangzhou Baiyun Mountain

中图分类号:

P343
X824

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摘要

Uncertainty Evaluation of the Surface Water’sHeavy Metal Health Risk in Baiyun Mountain