地球科学进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 376 -385. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.04.0376

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

数值模式的预报策略和方法研究进展
任宏利 1,2,丑纪范 2   
  1. 1.中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; 2.兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2006-09-18 修回日期:2007-01-31 出版日期:2007-04-10
  • 通讯作者: 任宏利(1979-),男,辽宁铁岭人,博士,助研,主要从事气候动力学和短期气候预测研究.E-mail:renhl@cma.gov.cn E-mail:renhl@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划项目“灾害天气精细数值预报系统及短期气候集合预测研究”第四课题“短期气候集合预测技术”(编号:2006BAC02B04);国家自然科学基金项目“延伸预报中减少模式不确定性的动力相似集合方法”(编号:40675039)和“跨季度预报的相似—动力方法研究”(编号:40575036)资助.

Study Progress in Prediction Strategy and Methodology on Numerical Model

REN Hong-li 1,2,CHOU Ji-fan 2   

  • Received:2006-09-18 Revised:2007-01-31 Online:2007-04-10 Published:2007-04-10

数值预报经历了半个多世纪的发展,已成为当前主要的客观预报工具。在模式和资料状况给定的情况下,预报效果的改善很大程度上依赖于所采用的预报策略和方法。为此,全面回顾了国内外基于数值模式的预报策略和方法研究进展,认为采取统计—动力相结合、从历史资料中提炼信息的预报策略是提高数值预报水平的可行之路。最后在总结前人工作基础上,着重介绍了动力相似预报策略和方法的相关研究,特别是实际预报中的试验情况。

At present, numerical prediction has been a primary technique for objective forecast after half a century's development. Under the circumstance of model and data given, the improvement of predictive level is to great extent dependent on the prediction strategy and method that are employed. In the present paper, the study progress in prediction strategy and methodology on numerical model in the world, which primarily includes the correction of prediction errors, ensemble prediction techniques and so on, has been comprehensively reviewed. It is suggested that there exist a feasible approach to improving predictive level based on prediction strategy by combining statistical and dynamical methods together and extracting information from historical data. Moreover, on the basis of summarizing previous work, the studies on the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction developed in recent years are also introduced, especially including situations of prediction experiments in complex operational model.

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