10~30 d延伸期天气预报方法研究进展与展望

doi:10.-11867/j.issn.10018166.2015.09.0970

10~30 d延伸期预报是国际大气科学关注的研究热点。这一时间段的预报对开展防灾、救灾工作具有极其重要的价值和意义,该工作需要结合初始气象条件、海洋、大气以及气候的影响因素,其中观测资料具有复杂性、综合性、全球性等,这些科学大数据反映和表征着复杂的自然现象与关系,具有高度数据相关性和多重数据属性,预测过程十分复杂。分析了延伸期预报的各种主流方法, 其中重点介绍了动力模式、经典统计和大数据方法3类预报方法的研究现状,并探讨了各种方法的优势和不足,在此基础上对目前延伸期预报领域存在的问题进行了讨论和总结。对延伸期预报方法的未来发展方向和应用前景给以展望。

关键词: 延伸期预报方法, 集合预报, 统计预报, 大数据预报, 可预报性

The 10~30 days extended-range weather forecast has attracted great attention from academic communities around the world, and this forecast plays a significant role in the decision-making process of disaster prevention and reduction. The extended-range forecast shall be combined with the initial meteorological conditions and influencing factors of ocean, atmosphere and climate, in which the observation data feature complexity, comprehensiveness and globalization. All of these scientific big data reflect and present complicated natural phenomena and relations, and are characterized by high data dependency and multiple data attributes, as well as extremely complicated forecast processes. Several methods involving extended-range weather forecast are analyzed from the numerical modeling, statistics and big data methods based on the intraseasonal oscillation and other methods, and the advantages and disadvantages of various types of prediction methods are also compared. Next, the scientific problems in the field of extended-range weather forecast are discussed and summarized. Finally, this paper gives a future prospective of the research for the methods of extended-range weather forecast and its applications.

Key words: Extended-range weather forecast methods, Ensemble forecast, Statistics forecast, Big data forecast, Predictability.

中图分类号:

P456.9

图 1 10~30 d延伸期天气预报

Fig.1 10~30 days extended range weather forecast

图2 SCGT的20~30 d振荡中全球850hPa 低频风场（单位：m/s）的演变 ^{[

30
]}（第4位相合成图）

Fig.2 Evolutions of the low frequency wind of the global 850 hPa in Phase 4 for the 20~30-day oscillation in association with SCGT（unit: m/s） ^{[

30
]}

[1]	Hoskins B.The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: A stimulus for our science[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2013,139:573-584.
[2]	Lorenz E N.The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion[J]. Tellus, 1969,21:1-19.
[3]	Miyakoda K, Gordon T, Carerly R, et al.Simulation of a blocking event in January 1977[J].Mouthly Weather Review,1983,111(4):846-849.
[4]	Tracton M S, Mo K, Chen W, et al.Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1989, 117:1 604-1 635.
[5]	Palmer T N, Brankovic C, Molteni F, et al.Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Interannual variability in operational model integrations[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1990, 116: 799-834.
	[6]Vitart F. Monthly forecasting at ECMWF[6]Vitart F. Monthly forecasting at ECMWF[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2004, 132: 2 761-2 779.
[7]	Saha S, Nadiga S, Thiaw C, et al.The NCEP climate forecast system[J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19: 3 483-3 517.
[8]	Chao Jiping, Ji Jinjun, Zhu Zhihui, et al.Filtering method for the long range numerical weather prediction[J]. Science in China, 1979,9(1): 75-84.
	[巢纪平, 季劲钧, 朱志辉, 等.长期数值天气预报的滤波方法[J]. 中国科学, 1979,9(1): 75-84.]
[9]	Shi Jiuen.The application and uncentainty of the probability and statistics in meteorology[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics,1981,4:26-37.
	[史久恩. 概率统计在气象学中的应用和问题[J].应用概率统计1981,4:26-37.]
[10]	Zheng Zhihai. Review of the progress of dynamical extended-range forecasting studies[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2013,3(1):25-30.
	[郑志海. 月动力延伸预报研究进展回顾[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(1):25-30.]
[11]	Madden R A, Julian P R.Detection of a 40~50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific[J]. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1971, 28:702-708.
[12]	Li Chongyin.Recent progress in atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation research[J]. Progress in Natural Science, 2004,14(7):734-741.
	[李崇银. 大气季节内振荡研究的新进展[J].自然科学进展,2004,14(7):734-741.]
[13]	Waliser D E, Lau K M, Stern W, et al.Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2003, 84(1):33-50.
[14]	Wuxi Meteorological Station in Jiangsu Province. Middle and long term rainfall forecast by the important omen for the different length[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1966,36(1):54-65.
	[江苏省无锡县气象服务站.以不同长度的前期征兆制作中长期降水预报[J]. 气象学报, 1966,36(1):54-65.]
[15]	Yang Jianchu, Gui Peilan.On the classification of the long-term weather processes[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1979, 4(6):14-18.
	[杨鉴初, 归佩兰. 关于长期天气过程的划分[J].气象, 1979, 4(6):14-18.]
[16]	Ren Zhenqiu, Zhang Suqin.Verification on the predictive capability of long-term processes for severe rainstorm by astronomical factors[M]∥Symposium on Meteorology and Astronomy.Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1986:196-198.
	[任振球, 张素琴.用天文因子试报连续性特大暴雨长期过程的实况检验[M]∥天文气象学术讨论会文集.北京:气象出版社,1986:196-198.]
[17]	Ren Zhenqiu, Zhang Suqin, Li Songqin.Verification on the predictive capability of the dry-hot weather processes in North China during flood season in 1989[J]. Meteorological Monthly,1990, 16(5): 43-45.
	[任振球, 张素琴, 李松勤. 1989 年华北汛期干热天气过程预测的实况检验[J]. 气象, 1990, 16(5): 43-45.]
[18]	Sun Guowu, Chen Baode.Oscillation characteristics and meridional propagation of atmospheric low frequency waves over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1988, 12(3): 250-256.
	[孙国武, 陈葆德. 青藏高原上空大气低频波的振荡及其经向传播[J]. 大气科学, 1988, 12(3): 250-256.]
[19]	Zhang Jijia, Sun Guowu, Chen Baode.Study on the Atmospheric Low Frequency Variation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1991.
	[章基嘉, 孙国武, 陈葆德. 青藏高原大气低频变化的研究[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1991.]
[20]	Yang Qiuming.The fitting for grey nonlinear differential equation[J].Applied Mathematics,1990,3(3):60-67.
	[杨秋明. 非线性灰色微分方程的拟合[J].应用数学,1990,3(3):60-67.]
[21]	Yang Qiuming.Forecast experiments for low frequency oscillation of tropical circulation in west Pacific using principal oscillation pattern analysis[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1998, 9(3): 345-351.
	[杨秋明. 西太平洋热带地区环流低频变化的主振荡型预测试验[J].应用气象学报,1998, 9(3):345-351.]
[22]	He Jinhai, Liang Ping, Sun Guowu.Consideration on extended-range forecast and its application study[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2013,3(1):11-17.
	[何金海,梁萍,孙国武.延伸期预报的思考及其应用研究进展[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(1):11-17.]
[23]	Baldwin M P, Stephenson D B, Thompson D W J, et al. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts[J]. Science, 2003, 301: 636-640.
[24]	Overpeck J T, Meehl G A, Bony S, et al.Dealing with data: Climate data challenges in the 21st century[J]. Science, 2011, 331: 700-702.
[25]	Sue N.Big data: The Harvard computers[J].Nature, 2008, 455: 36-37.
[26]	Shukla J, Gutzler D S.Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the northern hemisphere[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1983, 111: 1 273-1 279.
[27]	Li J P, Ding R Q.Temporal-spatial distribution of atmospheric predictability limit by local dynamical analogs[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2011, 139: 3 265-3 283.
[28]	Chou Jifan, Zheng Zhihai, Sun Shupeng.The think about 10~30 days extended range numerical weather prediction strategy facing the atmosphere chaos[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 2010, 30(5):569-573.
	[丑纪范,郑志海,孙树鹏.10~30 d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考——直面混沌[J].气象科学,2010,30(5):569-573.]
[29]	Ding Q, Wang B.Circumglobal teleconnection in northern hemisphere summer[J]. Journal of Climate, 2005,18: 3 482-3 505.
[30]	Yang Qiuming.The 20-30-day oscillation of the global circulation and heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2009, 52(10):1 485-1 501, doi:10.1007/s11430-009-0156-2.
	[杨秋明. 全球环流20~30 d振荡与长江下游强降水[J].中国科学:D辑,2009,39(11):1 515-1 529.]
[31]	Miller M, Buizza R, Haseler J, et al.Increased resolution in the ECMWF deterministic and ensemble prediction systems[J]. ECMWF Newsl, 2010,124:10-16.
[32]	Vitart F, Molteni F.Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2010,136: 842-855.
[33]	Miura H, Satoh M, Nasuno T, et al.A Madden-Julian Oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model[J]. Science, 2007, 318:1 763-1 765.
[34]	Jones C, Carvalho L M V, Liebmann B. Forecast skill of the South American monsoon system[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012,25:1 883-1 889.
[35]	Lee S S, Wang Bin, Waliser D E, et al.Predictability and prediction skill of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the intraseasonal variability hindcast experiment[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2015, doi 10.1007/s00382-014-2461-5.
[36]	Zhu H, Wheeler M C, Sobel A H, et al.Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2014,142:1 556-1 569.
[37]	Alessandri A, Borrelli A, Cherchi A, et al .Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset using dynamical subseasonal forecasts: Effects of realistic initialization of the atmosphere[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2015,143:778-793.
[38]	Palmer T, Düben P, McNamara H. Stochastic modelling and energy efficient computing for weather and climate prediction[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 2014,372: 20140118.
[39]	Wang Qiguang, Feng Guolin, Zheng Zhihai, et al.The preliminary analysis of the procedures of extracting predicable componts in numerical model of Lorenz system[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(3):539-550.
	[王启光, 封国林, 郑志海,等.基于Lorenz系统提取数值模式可预报分量的初步试验[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):539-550.]
	[40]Zheng Zhihai, Huang Jianping, Feng Guolin, et al. Forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2013, 56:878-889.
	[郑志海,黄建平,封国林,等.延伸期可预报分量的预报方案和策略[J].中国科学:D辑, 2013,43(4): 594-605.]
[41]	Wang Kuo, Feng Guolin, Sun Shupeng, et al.Study of the stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming 10-30 days during the snow storm event in January 2008[J]. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(10):109-201.
	[王阔, 封国林, 孙树鹏,等.基于2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻事件10~30天延伸期稳定分量的研究[J].物理学报,2012, 61(10): 109-201.]
[42]	Zheng Zhihai, Feng Guolin,Chou Jifan, et al.Compression for freedom degree in numerical weather prediction the error analogy[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,21(4):139-148.
	[郑志海, 封国林,丑纪范,等.数值预报中自由度的压缩及误差相似性规律[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(4):139-148.]
[43]	Zheng Zhihai, Feng Guolin,Huang Jianping,et al.Predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method and numerical experiments[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2012,61(19):199-203.
	[郑志海,封国林,黄建平,等.基于延伸期可预报性的集合预报方法和数值试验[J]. 物理学报, 2012, 61(19): 199-203.]
[44]	Chen Guanjun, Wei Fengying.An extended-range forecast method for the persistent heavy rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley in summer based on the low-frequency oscillation characteristics[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science, 2012, 36(3):633-644.
	[陈官军,魏凤英.基于低频振荡特征的夏季江淮持续性降水延伸期预报方法[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):633-644.]
[45]	Pattanaik D R, Ashok K D.Prospect of application of extended range forecast in water resource management: A case study over the Mahanadi River basin[J]. Natural Hazards, 2015,75, doi :10.1007/s11069-015-1610-4.
[46]	Li Weijing, Chen Lijuan.Research on reexplanation and reanalysis method of dynamical extended range forecast products[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1999,57(3):338-345.
	[李维京,陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(3):338-345.]
[47]	Jones C, Carvalho L M V, Higgins W, et al. A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004,17: 2 078-2 095.
[48]	Jiang X, Waliser D E, Wheeler M C, et al.Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2008,136(6):1 940-1 956.
[49]	Wheeler M C, Hendon H H.An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2004,132(8):1 917-1 932.
[50]	Ju Jianghua, Liu Yiling, Li Ting, et al.A new method for predicting summer intra-seasonal oscillation over the South China Sea[J]. Journal Tropical Meteorology, 2010,26(5): 521-525.
	[琚建华,刘一伶,李汀,等.预测夏季南海季节内振荡的一种新方法[J].热带气象学报,2010, 26(5):521-525.]
[51]	Cassou C.Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Nature, 2008, 455:523-527.
[52]	Leroy A, Wheeler M C.Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2008,136:3 637-3 654.
[53]	Kang I S, Kim H M.Assessment of MJO Predictability for boreal winter with various statistical and dynamical models[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23:2 368-2 378.
[54]	Lo F, Hendon H.Empirical extended-range prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2000, 128:2 528-2 543.
[55]	Nathaniel C J, Dan C C, Steven B F, et al.Skillful wintertime North American temperature forecasts out to 4 weeks based on the state of ENSO and the MJO[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2014,29(1):23-38.
[56]	Webster P J, Hoyos C.Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15~30-day time scales[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004, 85: 1 745-1 765.
[57]	Goswami B N, Xavier P. Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003,30(18):196,doi: 10.1029/2003GL1017,1810.
[58]	Rodney M, Lin H, Derome J.Subseasonal prediction of wintertime North American surface air temperature during strong MJO events[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2013,141: 2 897-2 909.
[59]	Yao W, Lin H, Derome J.Submonthly forecasting of winter surface air temperature in North America based on organized tropical convection[J]. Atmospheve-Ocean, 2011,49: 51-60.
[60]	Maharaj E A, Wheeler M C.Forecasting an index of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25:1 611-1 618.
[61]	Zhu Hongrui, Jiang Zhihong, Zhang Qin, et al.MJO index forecasting based on SSA-AR model[J]. Journal Tropical Meteorology,2010,26(3):371-378.
	[朱红蕊,江志红,张勤,等.基于SSA-AR方法的MJO 指数预报模型试验[J]. 热带气象学报, 2010,26(3):371-378.]
[62]	Waliser D E, Jones C, Schemm J K, et al.A statistical extended range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12(7):1 918-1 939.
	[63]Hsu P-C, Li T, You L, et al. A spatial-temporal projection method for 10~30-day forecast of heavy rainfall in Southern China[J].Climate Dynamics, 2014, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-22154.
[64]	Von Storch H, Xu J S.Principal oscillation pattern analysis of the 30- to 60-day oscillation in the tropical troposphere. Part I: Definition of an index and its prediction[J]. Climate Dynamics,1990,4:175-190.
[65]	Yang Qiuming.Extended range forecast experiments of the low frequency circulation for the period of the heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in mid-July 2011[J]. Science and Technology Review, 2011,29(32):60-66.
	[杨秋明. 2011年7月中旬长江下游地区强降水期间低频环流延伸期预报试验[J].科技导报,2011,29(32):60-66.]
[66]	Yang Qiuming, Li Yi, Song Juan, et al.Extended-range forecasts of the principal 20~30-day oscillation of the circulation over East Asia during the summer of 2002[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012, 26(5):554-565.
	[杨秋明,李熠,宋娟,等. 2002年夏季东亚地区环流20~30 d主振荡型延伸期预报研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(5):1 045-1 054.]
[67]	Gu Dejun, Ji Zhongping, Lin Ailan, et al.The oscillation of Guangzhou daily precipitation and its simple harmonic wave model for extended-range forecast[J]. Journal Tropical Meteorology,2013,29(6):899-906.
	[谷德军, 纪忠萍, 林爱兰, 等. 广州逐日降水振荡及其延伸期预报的简谐波模型[J]. 热带气象学报, 2013,29(6):899-906.]
[68]	Mo K C.Adaptive filtering and prediction of intraseasonal oscillations[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2001,129:802-817.
[69]	Newman M, Prashant D S, Christopher R, et al.A study of subseasonal predictability[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2003,131:1 715-1 732.
[70]	Cavanaugh N R, Teddy A, Subramanian A, et al.The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2014, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2181-x.
[71]	Kondrashov D, Chekroun M D, Robertson A W, et al.Low-order stochastic model and “past-noise forecasting” of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40:5 305-5 310.
[72]	Wang L, Ting Mingfang, Chapman David, et al.Prediction of northern summer low frequency circulation using a high order vector auto regressive model[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2607-0.
[73]	Zhang Ren,Hong Mei,Liu Kefeng, et al.Dynamic model re-constrution and corresponding abnormal characteristics anatomy of subtropical high based on actual data series samples[J].Advances in Earth Science, 2014,29:1 250-1 261.
	[张韧,洪梅,刘科峰,等.基于副热带高压异常活动个例的动力模型重构与变异特性剖析[J].地球科学进展,2014,29:1 250-1 261.]
[74]	Hong Mei, Chen Xi, Zhang Ren,et al.The analysis of impact factors of abnormal Western Pacific subtropical high years based on fuzzy systems and the dynamical forecast model inversion[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2015,73(2):355-367.
	[洪梅,陈希,张韧,等.基于模糊系统的西太平洋副热带高压异常年份的影响因子检测分析和动力预报模型反演[J].气象学报,2015,73(2):355-367.]
[75]	Xavier P K, Goswami B N.An analog method for real-time forecasting of summer monsoon subseasonal variability[J].Monthly Weather Review, 2007,135(12):4 149-4 160.
[76]	Yang Qiuming.Multivariable lagged regressive model of low frequency rains over the lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley for extended-range forecast in the early summer of 2013[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(7):881-889.
	[杨秋明. 2013年初夏长江下游降水低频分量延伸期预报的多变量时滞回归模型[J].气象,2015, 41(7):881-889.]
[77]	Yang Qiuming. Extended complex autoregressive model of low frequency rainfalls over the lower reaches of Yangtze River valley for extended-range forecast in 2013[J]. Acta Physica Sinica,2014, 63, doi: 10.7498/aps.63.199202.
	[杨秋明. 2013年长江下游降水低频分量延伸期预报的扩展复数自回归模型[J].物理学报,2014,63,doi: 10.7498/aps.63.199202.]
[78]	Yang Qiuming.Study of the method of the extended-range forecast for the low frequency rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer based on the 20-30 day oscillation[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(3): 494-507.
	[杨秋明. 基于20~30 d振荡的长江下游地区夏季低频降水延伸期预报方法研究[J].气象学报, 2014, 72(3): 494-507.]
[79]	Sun Guowu, Li Zhenkun, Xin Fei, et al.Low-frequency synoptic map: New method for extended range forecasting[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science, 2013, 37(4): 945-954.
	[孙国武,李震坤,信飞,等.延伸期天气过程预报的一种新方法——低频天气图[J].大气科学,2013,37(4):945-954.]
[80]	Love B S, Matthews A J.Real-time localised forecasting of the Madden-Julian Oscillation using neural network models[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2009,135:1 471-1 483.
[81]	Chattopadhyay R, Sahai A K, Goswami B N.Objective identification of nonlinear convectively coupled phases of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: Implications for prediction[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2008, 65:1 549-1 569.
[82]	Borah N, Sahai A K, Chattopadhyay R, et al.A self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013,118(16):9 022-9 034, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50688.
[83]	Love B S, Matthews A J, Janacek G J.Real-time extraction of the Madden-Julian oscillation using empirical mode decomposition and statistical forecasting with a VARMA model[J]. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21(20):5 318-5 335.
[84]	Liang Ping, Ding Yihui. Extended range forecast experiment based on intraseasonal oscillation[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science, 2012,36(1):102-116.
	[梁萍, 丁一汇. 基于季节内振荡的延伸预报试验[J]. 大气科学,2012, 36(1):102-116.]
[85]	Qin J, Van den Dool H M. Simple extension of an NWP model[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1996,124: 277-287.
[86]	Qian Weihong.Physical decomposition principle of regional-scale atmospheric transient anomaly[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012, 55(5):1 439-1 448.
	[钱维宏.天气尺度瞬变扰动的物理分解原理[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(5):1 439-1 448.]
[87]	Huang JiayouMeteorological Statistics and Forecast Method[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2004.
	[黄嘉佑. 气象统计与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.]
[88]	Yang Qiuming, Song Juan, Li Yi, et al.Review of impacts of the global atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation on the continuous heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River valley[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2012, 27(8):876-884.
	[杨秋明,宋娟,李熠,等.全球大气季节内振荡对长江流域持续暴雨影响的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(8):876-884.]
[89]	Thompson D W J, Barnes E A. Periodic variability in the large-scale Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation[J]. Science, 2014, 343: 641-645.
[90]	Thompson D W J, Woodworth J D. Barotropic and baroclinic annular variability in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 71:1 480-1 493.
[91]	Gao Tao, Xie Li’an.Study on progress of trends and physical causes of extreme precipttation in China during the last 50 years[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(5):577-589.
	[高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577-589.]
	[92]Shao Xie, Huang Ping,Huang Ronghui.A review of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[92]Shao Xie, Huang Ping,Huang Ronghui.A review of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(10):1 126-1 137.
	[邵勰,黄平,黄荣辉.南海夏季风爆发的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(10):1 126-1 137.]
[93]	Huang Shicheng, Yang Qiuming, Li Yi.10-30 d Extended-range low frequency rainfall real-time forecast for lower Yangtze region based on time-varying key area and multivariable lagged regressive model[J].Science Technology and Engineering, 2014,14(22):1-6.
	[黄世成,杨秋明,李熠. 基于时变关键区和时滞多变量的长江下游10~30 d低频降水实时预报[J]. 科学技术与工程,2014,14(22):1-6.]

[1]	金荣花,马杰,任宏昌,尹姗,蔡芗宁,黄威. 我国 10～ 30天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(8): 814-825.
[2]	高丽,陈静,郑嘉雯,陈权亮. 极端天气的数值模式集合预报研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 706-716.
[3]	朱月佳,邢蕊,朱明佳,王东勇,邱学兴. 联合概率方法在安徽强对流潜势预报中的应用和检验[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 731-746.
[4]	张丽霞, 张文霞, 周天军, 吴波. ENSEMBLES耦合模式对全球陆地季风区夏季降水的年代际预测能力评估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(4): 409-419.
[5]	李建平, 赵森, 李艳杰, 汪雷, 孙诚. 扰动位能在东亚夏季风变化中的作用研究现状及展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(2): 115-125.
[6]	潘留杰, 张宏芳, 王建鹏. 数值天气预报检验方法研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(3): 327-335.
[7]	王辉, 刘娜, 李本霞, 李响. 海洋可预报性和集合预报研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(11): 1212-1225.
[8]	邵勰, 黄平, 黄荣辉. 南海夏季风爆发的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(10): 1126-1137.
[9]	熊春晖，张立凤，关吉平，陶恒锐，苏佳佳. 集合—变分数据同化方法的发展与应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(6): 648-656.
[10]	任宏利,封国林,张培群. 论动力相似预报的物理基础问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(10): 1027-1035.
[11]	吴增茂;谢红琴;张志南;万小芳. 海洋生态预报的复杂性与研究方法的讨论[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19(1): 81-086.
[12]	王绍武. 短期气候预测的可预报性与不确定性[J]. 地球科学进展, 1998, 13(1): 8-14.
[13]	王绍武. 气候学研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 1996, 11(2): 169-177.

阅读次数

全文

摘要

Prospects and Progresses in the Research of the Methods for 10-30 Days Extended-range Weather Forecast