地球科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 970 -984. doi: 10.-11867/j.issn.10018166.2015.09.0970

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10~30 d延伸期天气预报方法研究进展与展望
杨秋明( )   
  1. 江苏省气象科学研究所,江苏 南京210009
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-03 修回日期:2015-08-03 出版日期:2015-09-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“SCGT与夏季东亚ISO相互作用研究及其在长江下游强降水延伸期预报中的应用”(编号: 41175082)资助

Prospects and Progresses in the Research of the Methods for 10-30 Days Extended-range Weather Forecast

Qiuming Yang( )   

  1. Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210009, China
  • Received:2015-05-03 Revised:2015-08-03 Online:2015-09-20 Published:2015-09-20

10~30 d延伸期预报是国际大气科学关注的研究热点。这一时间段的预报对开展防灾、救灾工作具有极其重要的价值和意义,该工作需要结合初始气象条件、海洋、大气以及气候的影响因素,其中观测资料具有复杂性、综合性、全球性等,这些科学大数据反映和表征着复杂的自然现象与关系,具有高度数据相关性和多重数据属性,预测过程十分复杂。分析了延伸期预报的各种主流方法, 其中重点介绍了动力模式、经典统计和大数据方法3类预报方法的研究现状,并探讨了各种方法的优势和不足,在此基础上对目前延伸期预报领域存在的问题进行了讨论和总结。对延伸期预报方法的未来发展方向和应用前景给以展望。

The 10~30 days extended-range weather forecast has attracted great attention from academic communities around the world, and this forecast plays a significant role in the decision-making process of disaster prevention and reduction. The extended-range forecast shall be combined with the initial meteorological conditions and influencing factors of ocean, atmosphere and climate, in which the observation data feature complexity, comprehensiveness and globalization. All of these scientific big data reflect and present complicated natural phenomena and relations, and are characterized by high data dependency and multiple data attributes, as well as extremely complicated forecast processes. Several methods involving extended-range weather forecast are analyzed from the numerical modeling, statistics and big data methods based on the intraseasonal oscillation and other methods, and the advantages and disadvantages of various types of prediction methods are also compared. Next, the scientific problems in the field of extended-range weather forecast are discussed and summarized. Finally, this paper gives a future prospective of the research for the methods of extended-range weather forecast and its applications.

中图分类号: 

图 1 10~30 d延伸期天气预报
Fig.1 10~30 days extended range weather forecast
图2 SCGT的20~30 d振荡中全球850hPa 低频风场(单位:m/s)的演变 [ 30 ](第4位相合成图)
Fig.2 Evolutions of the low frequency wind of the global 850 hPa in Phase 4 for the 20~30-day oscillation in association with SCGT(unit: m/s) [ 30 ]
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