海洋生态预报的复杂性与研究方法的讨论

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.01.0081

地球科学进展 ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 81 -086. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.01.0081

海洋生态预报的复杂性与研究方法的讨论

吴增茂 ¹;谢红琴 ¹;张志南 ²;万小芳 ¹

中国海洋大学海洋环境学院，山东青岛 266003；中国海洋大学生命科学学院，山东青岛 266003

收稿日期:2003-02-16 修回日期:2003-06-21 出版日期:2004-01-20
通讯作者: 吴增茂（1940-），男，山东省文登人，教授，主要从事海岸气象与海洋生态动力模型研究.E-mail:zmwu@mail.ouc.edu.cn E-mail:E-mail:zmwu@mail.ouc.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“东、黄海生态系统动力学和生物资源可持续利用”（编号：G19990437）；国际合作重点计划“中国近海典型海域入海物质水文地球化学过程与环境效应”（编号：2001CB711004）资助

ANALYSIS OF THE COMPLEXITY AND THE RESEARCH METHODS OF THE MARINE ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS PREDICTION

WU Zengmao ¹,XIE Hongqin ¹, ZHANG Zhinan ², WAN Xiaofang ¹

1.College of Physical & Evironmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China , Qingdao 266003 , China;2.College of Marine Life Sciences, Ocean University of China , Qingdao 266003 , China

Received:2003-02-16 Revised:2003-06-21 Online:2004-01-20 Published:2004-02-01

海洋生态动态预报预测研究已经成为海洋科学乃至地球系统科学领域中的热点问题。比较深入地分析了海洋生态预报的复杂性、不确定性和实况监测资料严重不足等问题，为促进海洋生态预报研究的快速发展，借鉴中期数值天气预报的一些有效方法，提出以下建议：①加深理解海洋生态系统的非线性动力学特征，深入开展随机-动力耦合的海洋生态系统模型研究；②加强海洋生态集合（ensemble）预报和综合预报方法研究；③大力促进卫星遥感信息的海洋生态应用研究，加强资料同化研究和反问题研究方法的应用，努力发掘各种信息资料的预报应用。

关键词: 海洋生态系统, 随机-动力学模型, 集合预报, 反问题研究

Dynamic prediction research on marine ecosystem has become one hot issue in marine science and even to geosystem sciences. The complexity and uncertainty of marine ecosystem dynamic prediction and the deficiency of field survey are deeply analysed. Several proposals are presented in this paper, by the aid of some analysis methods of numerical weather prediction, in order to promote the development of marine ecosystem dynamic prediction study: (1) to deeply understand the nonlinear dynamical characteristics of marine ecosystem and to develop stochasticdynamical model; (2) to strengthen ensemble and synthesized prediction study for marine ecosystem; (3) to make full use of satellitic remote sensing data and pay more attention to data assimilation study and application study of inverse problem for the marine ecosystem dynamics.

Key words: Marine ecosystem, Dynamic prediction, Stochastic-dynamical model, Ensemble prediction, Data assimilation, Inverse problem study.

中图分类号:

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