地球科学进展 ›› 1996, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 169 -177. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1996.02.0169

学科发展与研究 上一篇    下一篇

气候学研究进展
王绍武   
  1. 北京大学地球物理系 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:1995-10-10 出版日期:1996-03-01
  • 通讯作者: 王绍武,男,1932年11月出生,教授,主要从事气候学和夭气学研究。

PROGRESS IN CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDIES

Wang Shaowu   

  1. Department of Geophysics,Beijing University,Beijing  100871
  • Received:1995-10-10 Online:1996-03-01 Published:1996-03-01

回顾了80年代到90年代中期,气候学研究在几个方面的重要进展。共分析了五个问题:①20世纪气候变率,重点讨论年代际变率及气候突变;②ENSO模拟与预测,总结比较了各种模式的模拟与预测结果,着重讨论了90年代前半期ENSO发展的特点;③ENSO与季风,指出亚洲夏季风在ENSO循环中的重要作用;④气候可预报性研究,总结了月、季预报试验,介绍了用观测下边界强迫AGCM的研究结果;⑤气候变化成因分析,着重说明温室效应研究的不确定性及自然因子如太阳活动、火山活动在气候变化中的作用。

Recent progress in climatological studies for the period of 1980’s and early 1990’s were reviewed.The following problems were discussed :(1) Climate variabilitied in the 20th century .Inter-decadal variabilities and abrupt change of climate were emphasized;(2)Simulation and prediction of ENSO.The results of a series of models were compared each other. Distinguishing feature of ENSO in early 1990’s was studied;(3)ENSO and monsoon. The important role of summer monsoon in evolution of ENSO cycle was indicated;(4)Climate predictability . Results of monthly and seasonal prediction and simulation with observed external forcing were reviewed; (5)Analysis of factors responsible for climatic change.Uncertainties of greenhouse effect and role of solar activity and volcanism were examined.

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