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地球科学进展  2016, Vol. 31 Issue (10): 1047-1055    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1047
研究论文     
基于数值模拟的泥石流灾害定量风险评价
黄勋1, 2, 3, 唐川3*, *
1.重庆市勘测院,重庆 401121;
2.重庆市岩土工程技术研究中心,重庆 401121;
3. 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610059
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation
Huang Xun1, 2, 3, Tang Chuan3, *
1.Chongqing Survey Institute, Chongqing 401121, China;
2.Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Geotechnical Engineering, Chongqing 401121, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
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摘要: 风险评价是灾害防治最有效的软措施之一,也是实现灾害风险管控的重要基础。针对承灾体类型和泥石流成灾方式的特殊性,以重要承灾体——建筑物和道路为研究对象,构建了一套适用于我国西南山地城镇的泥石流定量风险评价的理论体系和技术流程,主要分为3个步骤:①利用FLO-2D数值模型,以强度指数IDF表达泥石流危险性;②利用汶川七盘沟7·11泥石流灾损数据,构建基于超越损失概率的物质易损性曲线;③在建立承灾体数据库的基础上,通过设置不同的未来泥石流情境,实现承灾体预期损失的定量表达。以汶川羊岭沟为例的模型验证和案例运用表明,构建的泥石流定量风险评价体系,能够很好地反映承灾体与泥石流的响应机制,可为泥石流威胁区的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。
关键词: 定量风险评价FLO-2D泥石流易损性曲线    
Abstract: The risk assessment is not only the one of the most effective soft measures in natural hazard prevention, but also is the base of hazard risk management. On account of the specificity of various elements at risk and debris flow mechanism, the theoretical system and technical procedure of debris flow quantitative risk assessment for buildings and roads were established in the mountaineous area of Southwest China, which included three sections: ①To represent debris flow hazard quantitatively using the intensity index IDF through FLO-2D simulation; ②To build debris flow physical vulnerability curve based on the loss exceedance-probability from Qipan gully debris flow case; ③To quantify the expected loss of the important elements at risk based on their database after setting the future debris flow scenarios. The case study of Yangling catchment indicated that the responding mechanism between elements at risk and debris flow physical mechanism was described quantitatively by this quantitative risk assessment system, which can contribute to the construction planning and prevention measure making in the southwestern mountainous area.
Key words: Debris flow    FLO-2D    Vulnerability curve.    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
收稿日期: 2016-07-02 出版日期: 2016-10-20
:  P642.23  
基金资助: 重庆市社会民生科技创新专项项目“水文地质三维建模技术在越岭隧道规划建设中的应用研究”(编号:cstc2016shmszx30021); 国家科技支撑技术项目“地震扰动区重大滑坡泥石流等地质灾害防范与生态修复”(编号:2011BAK12B01)资助
通讯作者: 唐川(1961-),男,安徽合肥人,教授,主要从事地质灾害、地貌学与工程地质研究.E-mail:tangc707@gmail.com   
作者简介: 黄勋(1986-),男,四川广元人,博士,主要从事地质灾害评价与预测研究.E-mail:huangsun198671@163.com
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引用本文:

黄勋, 唐川. 基于数值模拟的泥石流灾害定量风险评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 1047-1055.

Huang Xun, Tang Chuan. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation. Advances in Earth Science, 2016, 31(10): 1047-1055.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.10.1047        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V31/I10/1047

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