泥石流作用下建筑物易损性评价方法分析与评价

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.11.1211

建筑物易损度评价作为泥石流易损度评价的重要组成部分，其研究是实现城镇及居民点泥石流风险定量化和风险管理的必要环节。综述近30年来，泥石流作用下建筑物易损度研究的发展过程，并指出以统计分析方法建立的建筑物易损度曲线普适性差且力学机理不明等问题，提出数值计算和模型实验的手段获取建筑物结构易损度的机理模型。由于建筑物易损度研究问题本身的复杂性，统计分析方法仍将作为建筑物易损度研究的重要手段，力学机理明晰的研究方法则将成为今后研究的难点和热点。此外，地震、滚石、雪崩等类似灾种的易损度研究方法和成果可被借鉴到泥石流领域。针对灾害中因结构破坏引发人员伤亡的情况，建议采用时间概率和基于条件概率的事件树方法计算建筑物内人员易损度。最终形成综合结构和人员易损度研究成果的建筑物易损度评价方法。

关键词: 易损度, 泥石流, 建筑物, 评价方法

The assessment of building’s vulnerability is part of debris flow’s vulnerability research, which plays an important role in debris flow risk assessment and risk management for cities and towns threatened by debris flow. This paper has reviewed the development of vulnerability assessment of buildings since the 1990s. At present, there have been many empirical vulnerability curves for buildings impact by debris flow. However, most of them are proposed for typical buildings and the mechanism of damage model is still unknown. Therefore, it is advisable for researchers to calculate the vulnerability of buildings by using dynamic methods and conducting impact experiments. But the weak study of debris-flow impact force and complication of the vulnerability of building hamper the application of dynamic and experimental methods. Thus, the empirical static method will still be available to calculate the vulnerability of building in the near future，and to seek the dynamic mechanical solution of building vulnerability may also be pursued by debris flow researcher. Besides, relative achievements in other hazard field, such as rockfall, earthquake, snow avalanche, etc., should be introduced in debris flow vulnerability study, so as to enrich the way to study building vulnerability. In older to calculate the vulnerability of occupant in the buildings, we proposed the event tree model based on time probability and condition probability. Finally, an effective method combined by structural vulnerability and personal vulnerability should be presented.

Key words: Vulnerability, Debris flow, Buildings, Assessment methods

中图分类号:

P642.23

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摘要

Analysis and Assessment of Methods to Assess Vulnerability of Building in Debris Flow Hazard