SLCPs及其气候效应研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.10.1110

CO₂造成全球55%~60%的辐射强迫,迅速有效的减排是对抗气候变化的必要措施,但必须与造成另外40%~45%气候效应的短期气候污染物(SLCPs)减排并行。SLCPs直接或间接地影响地球气候系统的辐射平衡及温度变化,危害生态系统和人类社会安全。控制SLCPs的排放能在短时间内缓解近期全球变暖和海平面上升,弥补CO₂减排效应的滞后。在调研大量文献的基础上,首先论述了SLCPs研究的意义所在,归纳了SLCPs减排对全球气候变化的缓解效应。然后对SLCPs 4种代表物质——黑碳、甲烷、对流层臭氧和氢氟碳化物的物理及光学特性、排放变化和时空分布及未来发展可能的趋势进行了分析,在此基础上总结了分别针对4种物质的减排方案。阐述了4种SLCPs物质在不同机制下产生的直接和间接气候效应,以及对应的气候效应发生的机理和相关的大气化学过程,最后总结了国内外在研究SLCPs的大气浓度、区域排放、气候效应、辐射强迫及减排措施的研究方法,指出了研究中存在的不确定性因素及解决方案。

关键词: SLCPs, 气候因子, 气候变化, 减排

Pollutants that contribute significantly to climate change over days to decades timescales have been defined as Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs). SLCPs are climate forcers and environment pollutants, which have an effect on earth’s radiative balance, influence the global temperature and climate system through different ways. They also have adverse effects on the ecosystem and human society directly and indirectly. Mitigation emissions of the four SLCPs, black carbon, methane, troposphetic ozone and hydrofluorocarbons are the most effective strategy for constraining global warming and the rising of sea level as an important complement to reducing long-lived warming gases in the near term. In this paper, we summarized the significance of SLCPs research, pointed out the potential benefits of SLCPs emission reductions. They offered important policy opportunities to reduce radiative forcing and air pollution effects in short term. Then, we explained the physical and optical characteristics of SLCPs, illustrated how they contributed to the regional and global climate by interactions with clouds, ice, snow or other aerosols, discussed the present and future trends of their distribution and radiative forcing, summed up their direct and indirect climate effects and mechanism that are comprehensive in inclusion of all known and relevant processes and proved estimates of main forcing terms. At the same time, the advances in research methods and SLCPs climate effects as well as changes in climate forcing were also introduced in this article. We concluded the potential trends of SLCPs concentration in the atmosphere, pointed out the uncertainties factors in researches and relevant potential measures to reduce harmful emissions, which can slow the rate of climate change and protect the people and regions most vulnerable over the next several decades.

Key words: Short-lived climate pollutants, Climate factors, Climate change, Emission reduction.

中图分类号:

P467

Fig. 1 SLCPs的全球分布图 (a)2000年BC全球排放分布图(Gg)^{[

7
]};(b)2000年对流层O₃的柱含量分布图(多布森)^{[

8
]};(c)2003—2005年CH₄柱平均摩尔分子分布图(&#X000D7;10^-9)^{[

9
]}

Fig. 1 Global distribution of SLCPs (a)BC emissions (Gg) of 2000^{[

7
]};(b)Tropospheric column ozone (Dobson) of 2000^{[

8
]};(c)CH₄column averaged mole fraction(&#X000D7;10^-9) of 2003-2005^{[

9
]}

表1 本世纪全球平均温度和海平面变化 ^{[

10
]}

Table1 Projected temperature change ( ΔT) and SLR ( ΔSLR) ^{[

10
]}

	21世纪中期(2005—2050年)			21世纪末期 (2005—2100年)
情景	ΔT/°C	2050年SLR_R cm/a	ΔSLR/cm	ΔT/°C	2100年的SLR_R cm/a	ΔSLR/cm
BAUfull	1.6[1.0~2.4]	1.1±0.4 [0.4~2.2]	30.1±10.9 [12~61]	3.5 [2.2~5.3]	2.1±0.6 [0.9~4]	112.2±34 [49~219]
CO2full	1.5[0.9~2.3]	1.1±0.4 [0.4~2.2]	30.1±11 [11.9~61]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	1.6±0.5 [0.7~3]	102.1±30.9 [44~199]
SLCPfull	1[0.6~1.5]	0.9±0.33 [0.4~1.8]	27.1±11 [10.7~56]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	1.6±0.5 [0.7~3]	87.1±26.2 [38~170]
CO2+SLCPfull	0.9[0.6~1.4]	0.9±0.34 [0.4~1.8]	27.1±11 [10.6~56]	1.2 [0.8~1.8]	1.1±0.3 [0.5~2]	77±23.1 [34~150]
BAUther	1.6[1.0~2.4]	0.29±0.006 [0.18~0.4]	9.3±0.2 [5.7~14]	3.5 [2.2-5.3]	0.39±0.004 [0.24~0.6]	26.4±0.3 [16~40]
CO2ther	1.5[0.9~2.3]	0.28±0.006 [0.17~0.4]	9.3±0.2 [5.7~14]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	0.3±0.004 [0.19~0.5]	24.1±0.3 [15~36]
SLCPther	1[0.6~1.5]	0.15±0.002 [0.09~0.2]	6.4±0.1 [3.9~10]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	0.18±0.002 [0.11~0.3]	15.3±0.2 [9~23]
CO2+SLCPther	0.9[0.6~1.4]	0.15±0.002 [0.09~0.2]	6.4±0.1 [3.9~10]	1.2 [0.8~1.8]	0.13±0.002 [0.08~0.2]	13.4±0.2 [8~20]

表1 本世纪全球平均温度和海平面变化 ^{[

10
]}

Table1 Projected temperature change ( ΔT) and SLR ( ΔSLR) ^{[

10
]}

	21世纪中期(2005—2050年)			21世纪末期 (2005—2100年)
情景	ΔT/°C	2050年SLR_R cm/a	ΔSLR/cm	ΔT/°C	2100年的SLR_R cm/a	ΔSLR/cm
BAUfull	1.6[1.0~2.4]	1.1±0.4 [0.4~2.2]	30.1±10.9 [12~61]	3.5 [2.2~5.3]	2.1±0.6 [0.9~4]	112.2±34 [49~219]
CO2full	1.5[0.9~2.3]	1.1±0.4 [0.4~2.2]	30.1±11 [11.9~61]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	1.6±0.5 [0.7~3]	102.1±30.9 [44~199]
SLCPfull	1[0.6~1.5]	0.9±0.33 [0.4~1.8]	27.1±11 [10.7~56]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	1.6±0.5 [0.7~3]	87.1±26.2 [38~170]
CO2+SLCPfull	0.9[0.6~1.4]	0.9±0.34 [0.4~1.8]	27.1±11 [10.6~56]	1.2 [0.8~1.8]	1.1±0.3 [0.5~2]	77±23.1 [34~150]
BAUther	1.6[1.0~2.4]	0.29±0.006 [0.18~0.4]	9.3±0.2 [5.7~14]	3.5 [2.2-5.3]	0.39±0.004 [0.24~0.6]	26.4±0.3 [16~40]
CO2ther	1.5[0.9~2.3]	0.28±0.006 [0.17~0.4]	9.3±0.2 [5.7~14]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	0.3±0.004 [0.19~0.5]	24.1±0.3 [15~36]
SLCPther	1[0.6~1.5]	0.15±0.002 [0.09~0.2]	6.4±0.1 [3.9~10]	2.4 [1.5~3.6]	0.18±0.002 [0.11~0.3]	15.3±0.2 [9~23]
CO2+SLCPther	0.9[0.6~1.4]	0.15±0.002 [0.09~0.2]	6.4±0.1 [3.9~10]	1.2 [0.8~1.8]	0.13±0.002 [0.08~0.2]	13.4±0.2 [8~20]

表2 对流层O ₃变化引起的热辐射冷却 ^{[

30
]}(单位：W/m ²)

Table 2 Thermal radiation cooling due to change of ozone concentration ^{[

30
]}(unit：W/m ²)

物质	浓度变化	平流层	对流层	地面	地表-对流层系统
对流层O₃	25%⁺	-0.21	0.12	0.17	0.29

表2 对流层O ₃变化引起的热辐射冷却 ^{[

30
]}(单位：W/m ²)

Table 2 Thermal radiation cooling due to change of ozone concentration ^{[

30
]}(unit：W/m ²)

物质	浓度变化	平流层	对流层	地面	地表-对流层系统
对流层O₃	25%⁺	-0.21	0.12	0.17	0.29

表3 2030年末SLCPs减排引起的全球年均辐射强迫变化 ^{[

51
]}

Table 3 Global annual radiative forcing change (mW/m ²) at the end of reduced emissions (2030) for SLCPs ^{[

51
]}

	欧洲	中国	南亚	南美
CH₄	-0.22	-0.22	0.28	0.97
O₃	-0.35	-0.52	-1.1	-2.2
BC	-2.0	-1.6	-3.0	-2.9

表3 2030年末SLCPs减排引起的全球年均辐射强迫变化 ^{[

51
]}

Table 3 Global annual radiative forcing change (mW/m ²) at the end of reduced emissions (2030) for SLCPs ^{[

51
]}

	欧洲	中国	南亚	南美
CH₄	-0.22	-0.22	0.28	0.97
O₃	-0.35	-0.52	-1.1	-2.2
BC	-2.0	-1.6	-3.0	-2.9

表4 1750—2005年BC辐射强迫分类 ^{[

16
]}

Table 4 Black carbon climate forcing terms, evaluated for industrial era (1750-2005) ^{[

16
]}

		数值/(W/m²)
强迫项	辐射成分	90%不确定范围
BC直接效应	大气吸收和散射	+0.71(+0.09 - +1.26)
直接辐射	化石燃料燃烧	+0.29
	生物燃料燃烧	+0.22
	露天燃烧	+0.2
直接和半直接云效应	液云和半直接效应	-0.2(-0.61 - +0.10)
	与云滴作用	+0.2(-0.1 - +0.9)
	混合云效应	+0.18(+0.0 - +0.36)
	冰云效应	0.0(-0.4 - +0.4)
	云和半直接效应	+0.23(-0.47- +1.0)
雪—海冰—BC效应	雪有效辐射	+0.1(+0.014 - +0.30)
	海冰有效辐射	+0.03(+0.012 - +0.06)
	地表辐射	+0.13(+0.04- +0.33)
总气候辐射强迫	仅BC(考虑所有机制)	+1.1(+0.17- + 2.1)
	BC及共排物的净效应:
	所有源	-0.06(-1.45 - +1.29)
	排除露天燃烧	+0.22(-0.50 - +1.08)
源(包括前工业革命时期)强迫	直接辐射	+0.88(+0.18 - +1.47)
	积雪有效辐射	+0.13(+0.02 - +0.36)
	海冰有效辐射	+0.036(+0.016 - +0.068)

表4 1750—2005年BC辐射强迫分类 ^{[

16
]}

Table 4 Black carbon climate forcing terms, evaluated for industrial era (1750-2005) ^{[

16
]}

		数值/(W/m²)
强迫项	辐射成分	90%不确定范围
BC直接效应	大气吸收和散射	+0.71(+0.09 - +1.26)
直接辐射	化石燃料燃烧	+0.29
	生物燃料燃烧	+0.22
	露天燃烧	+0.2
直接和半直接云效应	液云和半直接效应	-0.2(-0.61 - +0.10)
	与云滴作用	+0.2(-0.1 - +0.9)
	混合云效应	+0.18(+0.0 - +0.36)
	冰云效应	0.0(-0.4 - +0.4)
	云和半直接效应	+0.23(-0.47- +1.0)
雪—海冰—BC效应	雪有效辐射	+0.1(+0.014 - +0.30)
	海冰有效辐射	+0.03(+0.012 - +0.06)
	地表辐射	+0.13(+0.04- +0.33)
总气候辐射强迫	仅BC(考虑所有机制)	+1.1(+0.17- + 2.1)
	BC及共排物的净效应:
	所有源	-0.06(-1.45 - +1.29)
	排除露天燃烧	+0.22(-0.50 - +1.08)
源(包括前工业革命时期)强迫	直接辐射	+0.88(+0.18 - +1.47)
	积雪有效辐射	+0.13(+0.02 - +0.36)
	海冰有效辐射	+0.036(+0.016 - +0.068)

表5 不同研究计算的CH ₄平均百年增温潜能GWP ^{[

84
]}

Table5 The GWP ₁₀₀of CH ₄ in different studies ^{[

84
]}

研究者	研究时间	最佳评估值	范围
研究者	研究时间	或中值	范围
IPCC	2007	25	19.3~31.5
WMO	1999	24	7.5~64
IPCC	1996	21	6.5~56
IPCC	1995	24.5±7.5	(7.5±2.5)~(62±20)
Reilly & Richards	1993	21	7~32
IPCC	1992	11	4~35
IPCC	1990	21	9~63

表5 不同研究计算的CH ₄平均百年增温潜能GWP ^{[

84
]}

Table5 The GWP ₁₀₀of CH ₄ in different studies ^{[

84
]}

研究者	研究时间	最佳评估值	范围
研究者	研究时间	或中值	范围
IPCC	2007	25	19.3~31.5
WMO	1999	24	7.5~64
IPCC	1996	21	6.5~56
IPCC	1995	24.5±7.5	(7.5±2.5)~(62±20)
Reilly & Richards	1993	21	7~32
IPCC	1992	11	4~35
IPCC	1990	21	9~63

表6 典型HFCs的大气寿命、辐射效率及全球增温潜能 ^{[

2
]}

Table 6 Life, radiative forcing and GWP of typical HFCs ^{[

2
]}

工业用名	大气寿命	辐射效率	SAR	GWP(年)
		Wm^-2ppbv^-1	100年	20	100	500
HFC-32	4.9	0.11	650	2330	675	205
HFC-125	29	0.23	2800	6350	3500	1100
HFC-134	10			3200	1100	330
HFC-134a	14	0.16	1300	3830	1430	435
HFC-152a	1.4	0.09	140	437	124	38
HFC-245fa	7.6	0.28		3380	1030	314
HFC-365mfc	8.6	0.21		2520	794	241

表6 典型HFCs的大气寿命、辐射效率及全球增温潜能 ^{[

2
]}

Table 6 Life, radiative forcing and GWP of typical HFCs ^{[

2
]}

工业用名	大气寿命	辐射效率	SAR	GWP(年)
		Wm^-2ppbv^-1	100年	20	100	500
HFC-32	4.9	0.11	650	2330	675	205
HFC-125	29	0.23	2800	6350	3500	1100
HFC-134	10			3200	1100	330
HFC-134a	14	0.16	1300	3830	1430	435
HFC-152a	1.4	0.09	140	437	124	38
HFC-245fa	7.6	0.28		3380	1030	314
HFC-365mfc	8.6	0.21		2520	794	241

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Advances in Studies of Short-lived Climate Pollutants