地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 618 -631. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.051

所属专题： “一带一路”绿色发展研究；

全球变化研究 上一篇    下一篇

中国投资对“一带一路”地区经济增长和碳排放强度的影响
李侠祥 1, 2( ),刘昌新 2, 3,王芳 1, 2,郝志新 1, 2( )   
  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
    2.中国科学院 大学，北京 100049
    3.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-19 修回日期:2020-05-01 出版日期:2020-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 郝志新 E-mail:lixx.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn;haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目“地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合及应用”(2016YFA0602704);国家自然科学基金重点项目“中世纪暖期与小冰期中国东部年代际干湿格局差异及其机制研究”(41831174)

The Impact of China’s Investment on Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Intensity in the “Belt and Road”

Xiaxiang Li 1, 2( ),Changxin Liu 2, 3,Fang Wang 1, 2,Zhixin Hao 1, 2( )   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2019-12-19 Revised:2020-05-01 Online:2020-06-10 Published:2020-07-06
  • Contact: Zhixin Hao E-mail:lixx.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn;haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • About author:Li Xiaxiang (1991-), male, Linyi City, Shandong Province, Ph. D student. Research areas include climate change. E-mail: lixx.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    the National Key Research and Development Program of China “Coupling and application of Earth system model and Integrated Assessment Model”(2016YFA0602704);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “A study on the difference and mechanism of the interdecadal dry and wet pattern between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age in eastern China”(41831174)
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增加绿色投资是促进“一带一路”地区实现可持续发展的重要途径之一。通过设计中国对“一带一路”地区无投资、固定投资和加强投资3个情景，利用改进的索罗模型和碳强度变化模型，计算并对比分析了“一带一路”地区7个区域国内生产总值和CO2排放量变化的差异。结果表明，中国投资有利于“一带一路”地区的经济发展和CO2减排，且随着投资的增加，促进作用也越明显。相对无投资情景，截至2100年，在固定、加强投资情景下，“一带一路”地区国内生产总值分别累计增加45.16万亿和97.02万亿美元，CO2累计排放量分别减少44.16 Gt和79.47 Gt，这将导致2100年全球大气CO2浓度下降2.41和4.33 mL/m3。从区域上看，虽然在短期内（2017—2050年），中国投资可能导致东南亚及周边地区、印度和中东欧的CO2排放量小幅增加，但长期（2017—2100年）结果显示，其对各区域CO2排放量下降均有促进作用，特别是对东南亚及周边地区和中东—中亚地区的减排促进作用最明显。这表明中国投资有利于促进“一带一路”地区的绿色可持续发展。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 碳减排, 绿色发展, 中国投资

Increasing green investment is one of the important ways to promote sustainable development in the Belt and Road (B&R) region. We predicted the effects of China’s investments on the CO2 emission patterns in B&R areas under the scenarios of No-Investment (NIS), Business-as-usual Investment (BIS) and the Strengthening Investment Scenario (SIS) based on the improved Solow model and a CO2 intensity model. The results reveal that the GDP of B&R region will cumulatively increase by 45.16 and 97.02 trillion USD, and the CO2 will cumulatively decrease by 44.16 and 79.47 Gt by 2100, respectively, under BIS and SIS, compared with NIS. The cumulative decrease of CO2 emissions, 44.16 and 79.47 Gt, will lead to global CO2 concentration decrease by approximately 2.41 mL/m3 and 4.33 mL/m3 in 2100, respectively. Regionally, China’s investments have the most obvious role in promoting the economic development and CO2 emission reductions of Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas. In the short term (2017-2050), China's investment may lead to a small increase in CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas, India and the Central and Eastern Europe, but in the long term (2017-2100), China's investment will promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in all regions, especially in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas and the Middle East Central Asia region. This shows that China's investment is conducive to promoting the green development of the B&R regions.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, CO2 emission reduction, Green development, Chinese investments

中图分类号: 

表1 “一带一路”地区模型构建的数据及其来源
Table 1 Data and source for model construction in the "Belt and Road" region
数据类型 时间范围 尺度 变量 单位 来源
经济数据 1990—2015年 国家 固定资本形成总额 2010年不变价美元 世界银行
储蓄率 %
GDP 2010年不变价美元
劳动力 人
2017年中国对外直接投资额 2010年不变价美元 中国对外直接投资统计公报
行业 GDP 当年价格美元 Eora
投资行业 — 中国对外直接投资统计公报
排放数据 1990—2015年 国家 CO2排放量 Gt 世界银行
行业 CO2排放量 Gt Eora
表2 “一带一路”区域划分及各区域 2017年 CO2排放量与 GDP总量占比
Table 2 Division of the "Belt and Road" and the proportions of CO2 emissions and GDPs of the "Belt and Road" subregions to the totals of the "Belt and Road" region in 2017
分区名称 涵盖国家 CO2排放量占比/% GDP总量占比/%
俄罗斯 俄罗斯 14.17 9.06
印度 印度 18.59 12.57
中东—中亚 巴基斯坦、伊朗、伊拉克、卡塔尔、阿联酋、巴勒斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、巴林、约旦、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、科威特、阿塞拜疆、蒙古、格鲁吉亚、土耳其、亚美尼亚、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦 25.14 22.51
东南亚及周边 印度尼西亚、泰国、马来西亚、越南、菲律宾、孟加拉、缅甸、斯里兰卡、文莱、尼泊尔、柬埔寨、巴布亚新几内亚、老挝、马尔代夫、不丹、萨摩亚、斐济 12.00 13.79
非洲—拉丁美洲 南非、埃及、委内瑞拉、阿尔及利亚、尼日利亚、智利、摩洛哥、利比亚、特立尼达和多巴哥、厄瓜多尔、突尼斯、安哥拉、多米尼加、玻利维亚、苏丹、加纳、肯尼亚、津巴布韦、埃塞尔比亚、坦桑尼亚、科特迪瓦、塞内加尔、巴拿马、莫桑比克、哥斯达黎加、喀麦隆、乌拉圭、萨尔瓦多、乌干达、加蓬、赞比亚、纳米比亚、刚果(布)、马达加斯加、毛里塔尼亚、多哥、几内亚、圭亚那、南苏丹、苏里南、塞拉利昂、卢旺达、乍得、安提瓜和巴布达、冈比亚、塞舌尔、佛得角、布隆迪 14.14 16.69
中东欧 波兰、乌克兰、罗马尼亚、白俄罗斯、保加利亚、匈牙利、塞尔维亚、波黑、爱沙尼亚、克罗地亚、立陶宛、马其顿、拉脱维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、摩尔多瓦、黑山 7.21 7.52
经济发达且 低碳发展区 奥地利、捷克、希腊、以色列、马耳他、新西兰、葡萄牙、韩国、新加坡、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚 8.75 17.86
图1 中国投资对“一带一路”地区碳排放量的影响路径
Fig.1 The roadmap of the effects of China’s investments in the "Belt and Road" region on emissions
表3 各区域经济增长模型中的主要参数
Table 3 The main parameters in each subregion
区域 宏观经济参数 资本相关参数
A0(a) β (a) α (a) x(b) K0/万亿*(b) s/%(b) g /%(c) I 0 ? /万亿*(c)
中国 17.33 0.025 0.58 -0.0085 1.051 37.58 11.50 0.2260
印度 7.36 0.009 0.68 0.0010 0.642 28.73 4.49 0.0931
俄罗斯 39.37 0.003 0.61 0.0010 0.835 20.31 6.40 0.1370
非洲—拉丁美洲 948.55 0.006 0.21 -0.0010 1.195 20.87 5.78 0.1886
东南亚及周边 4.645 0.005 0.76 -0.0010 1.227 25.81 4.93 0.1833
中东—中亚 300.56 0.010 0.38 -0.0010 2.391 23.09 1.81 0.2823
中东欧 28.61 0.008 0.61 -0.0010 1.015 22.33 4.20 0.1440
经济发达且 低碳发展区 184.57 0.016 0.46 -0.0030 3.423 25.02 2.30 0.4211
表4 中国投资区和非中国投资区碳强度的拟合结果 *
Table 4 The fitting results of CO 2 intensity in “non-Chinese investment part” and “Chinese investment part” *
区域 非中国投资区碳强度（CI0; θ ） 中国投资区(a)
高排放行业碳强度( h c i ) 低排放行业碳强度( l c i )

制造业

CI0; θ

建筑业

CI0; θ

采掘业

CI0; θ

农业

CI0; θ

租赁和商务服务业

CI0; θ

批发零售业

CI0; θ

印度 1.47;-0.0156 3.49;-0.044 — — — — —
俄罗斯 1.77;-0.0358 3.49;-0.044 — 1.04;-0.045 0.53;-0.076 0.201;-0.031 0.082;-0.026
非洲—拉丁美洲 0.71;-0.0191 3.49;-0.044 2.65;-0.057 1.04;-0.045 — 0.392;-0.179 0.529;-0.009
东南亚及周边 0.69;-0.0071 3.49;-0.044 2.65;-0.057 — — — 0.032;-0.028
中东—中亚 0.87;-0.0073 3.49;-0.044 2.65;-0.057 1.04;-0.045 — — 0.428;-0.005
中东欧 1.76;-0.0480 — 2.65;-0.057 — — — —
经济发达且 低碳发展区 0.54;-0.0190 — — — — — 0.784;-0.064
表5 投资情景及主要投资行业
Table 5 Investment scenarios and investment industries
区域 无投资 固定投资/? 加强投资 主要投资行业
东南亚及周边 无投资 约8.202 0.31%/10a 制造业, 建筑业, 批发零售业
经济发达且 低碳发展区 约7.679 批发零售业
非洲—拉丁美洲 约3.518 建筑业, 采掘业, 制造业, 批发零售业, 租赁和商务服务业
中东—中亚 约2.674 采掘业, 建筑业, 制造业, 批发零售业
俄罗斯 约1.556 采掘业, 农业, 租赁和商务服务业, 制造业, 批发零售业
中东欧 约4.443 建筑业
印度 约2.915 制造业
图2 1990—2015年模拟与统计的各区域GDP、CO2强度和CO2排放量
(a)~(c)印度；(d)~(f)俄罗斯; (g)~(i)非洲—拉丁美洲；(j)~(l)东南亚及周边；(m)~(o)中东—中亚；(p)~(i)中东欧；(s)~(u)经济发达且低碳发展区
Fig.2 Simulation and statistical data of GDP, CO2 intensity and CO2 emissions during 1990-2015 in each subregion
(a)~(c) India；(d)~(f) Russia; (g)~(i)Africa and Latin America；(j)~(l)Southeast Asia and its sourrounding；(m)~(o) Middle East and Central Asia；(p)~(i) Central and Eastern Euorpe；(s)~(u) Economically developed and low-carbon region
图3 固定、加强投资情景下2017—2100年各区域相对无投资情景的GDP累计增加量差异
(a) 固定投资情景减无投资情景; (b) 加强投资情景减无投资情景
Fig.3 The differences in the cumulative increase of GDP from 2017 to 2100 between business-as-usual (strengthening) investment scenario and no-investment scenario in each subregion
(a) Business-as-usual investment scenario minus no investment scenario; (b) Strengthening investment scenario minus no-investment scenario
图4 固定、加强投资情景下2017—2100年各区域相对无投资情景的CO2强度变化差异
(a) 固定投资情景减无投资情景; (b) 加强投资情景减无投资情景
Fig.4 The differences in CO2 intensity between business-as-usual （strengthening） investment scenario and no-investment scenario in each subregion from 2017 to 2100
(a) Business-as-usual investment scenario minus no investment scenario; (b) Strengthening investment scenario minus no-investment scenario
图5 固定、加强投资情景下2017—2100年各区域相对无投资情景的累计CO2排放量差异
(a) 固定投资情景减无投资情景; (b) 加强投资情景减无投资情景
Fig.5 The differences in CO2 emissions between business-as-usual （strengthening） investment scenario and no-investment scenario in each subregion from 2017 to 2100
(a) Business-as-usual investment scenario minus no investment scenario; (b) Strengthening investment scenario minus no-investment scenario
表6 2021— 2050年中国、印度和俄罗斯地区 GDP增长率对比
Table 6 Comparison of GDP growth rates in China, India and Russia in 2021-2050

时间段和数据来源

国家

 中国 印度 俄罗斯
时间段 2020s 2030s 2040s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2020s 2030s 2040s
无投资情景/% 4.60 3.60 2.70 4.70 4.20 3.90 1.40 0.80 0.50
PwC/% 3.50 2.20 2.10 5.00 4.50 3.80 1.70 2.10 1.60
OECD/% 3.76 2.30 1.51 5.90 4.50 3.60 0.60 0.50 0.40
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