地球科学进展 ›› 2001, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 436 -441. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2001.03.0436

全球变化研究 上一篇    

气候与土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响研究
邓慧平 1,2   
  1. 1.湖南师范大学国土学院,湖南长沙  410081;2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京  100101
  • 收稿日期:2000-03-30 修回日期:2000-10-16 出版日期:2001-06-01
  • 通讯作者: 邓慧平(1962-),男,江苏溧水人,博士,主要从事水循环与气候变化影响研究。 E-mail:denghp62@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程项目“土地自然要素(主要是土壤)和LUEC对自然地理过程影响研究”(编号:CXIOG-AD0-03-02);中国科学院知识创新工程重点项目“土地利用/土地覆被变化现代过程及其环境效应”(KZCX2-310)资助.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE-LAND COVER CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

DENG Hui-ping 1,2   

  1. 1.College of Land and Resource,Hunan Normal University,Changsha410081,China;
    2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resource Researches,CAS,Beijing100101,China
  • Received:2000-03-30 Revised:2000-10-16 Online:2001-06-01 Published:2001-06-01

水资源短缺和水患灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题。气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源和旱涝的影响以及由此产生的社会经济后果已引起人类社会的广泛关注。深入综合地开展这方面的研究对国民经济建设和可持续发展规划决策有重要的意义。通过分析总结已进行的有关研究工作,对该领域的研究进展作了简要回顾,讨论了现有工作的不足和今后的研究内容和方法。

Most important consequences of climate change and land use land cover change are alterations in regional hydrologic cycles, water resource supply demand balance, hydrological extremes and subsequent effects on social economy. In this paper, previous assessments are reviewed and inadequacies in past studies are discussed. For the past time, attention has focused on assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological resource or the hydrological consequences of land use land cover changes respectively. It is pointed out that system matie dynamic methodology should be adopted to conduct integrated impact assessment of climate change and land use land cover change on water supply demand balance and social economy. For evaluating effects of climate change and land cover change on hydrological process, extremes and soil erosion, it is necessary to develop a physically based distributed model which integrate geographical information systems with hydrologic and water erosion models.

中图分类号: 

[1]  Hadi dowlatabadi, Morgan M G. Integrated assessment of climate change[J].Science, 1993, 259:1 813-1 932.
[2]  David C M , Kenneth D F. Water resources planning and climate change assessment methods[J].Climatic Change, 1997,37(1): 25-40.
[3]  Gleick P H. The development and testing of a water balance model for climate impact assessment: modeling the Sacramento Basin[J]. Water Resource Research, 1987, 23(6):1 049-1 061.
[4]  Gleick P H. Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic change[J]. J of Hydrology, 1986,88:99~116.
[5]  Schaake J. From climate to flow[A]. In: Waggoner P E, eds. Climate Change and US Water Resources [C]. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1990. 177-206.
[6]  Kenneth D F, David C M. Climate change and water resources[J]. Climatic Change, 1997, 37: 7-23.
[7]  Deng Huiping, Tang Laihua.Impacts of climatic changes on hydrologic balance in Tuojiang Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1998,53(1):42-47.[邓慧平,唐来华.沱江流域水文对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,1998,51(1): 42-47.]
[8]  Karl T R , Riebsame W E. The impact of decadal fluctuations in mean precipitation and temperature on runoff: sensitivity study over the United States[J]. Climatic Change, 1989, 15:423-447.
[9]  Flaschka I M, Stockton C W, Boggess W R. Climatic variation and surface water resources in the Great Basin Region[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1987,23:47-57.
[10]  Smith K. Recent hydroclimatic fluctuations and their effects on water resources in Illinois[J]. Climatic Change, 1993, 23(2): 249-269.
[11]  Deng Huiping,Li Aizhen,Liu Houfeng,et al.Impacts of climatic fluctuations on water resource and drought-waterlogging events in Laizhou Bay region[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2000,20(1):56-60.[邓慧平,李爱贞,刘厚风,等.气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响[J].地理科学,2000, 20(1): 56-60.]
[12]  Deng Huiping, Liu Houfeng, Zhu Tingcheng.Temperature and precipitation changes over Songnen Steppe and their impacts since mid-20th century[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,1999,19(3):220-224.[邓慧平,刘厚风,祝廷成.松嫩草地40余年气温、降水变化及其若干影响研究[J].地理科学,1999,19(3): 220-224.]
[13]  Frederic K D. Climate change impacts on water resources and possible responses in the MINK region[J]. Climatic Change,1993, 24: 83-115.
[14]  Mccabe G J , Wolock D M. Sensitivity of irrigation demand in a humid-temperate region to hypothetical change[J]. Water Resources Bulletin, 1992, 28(3): 535-543.
[15]  Zhang Yi, Xu Xuoyuan,Wu Xingming.Using SCCM model to assess the impacts of climate change on water balance in the Huanghuaihai plain [A]. In: Zhang Yi, ed. Climate Change and its Impacts[C].Beijing: Meteorological Press,1993.223-233.
[16]  Deng Huiping, Liu Houfeng.The impacts of global climatic change on moisture and heat factors in the Songnen Steppe[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2000,20(6).[邓慧平,刘厚风.全球气候变化对松嫩草地水热生态因子的影响[J].生态学报,2000,20(6):958-963.
[17]  Deng Huiping, Zhu Tingcheng. The impacts of global climatic change on soil water and grassland productivity in the Songnen Steppe[J]. Acta Glassland Sinica,1998,6(2): 147-152.[邓慧平,祝廷成.全球气候变化对松嫩草原土壤水分和生产力影响的研究[J].草地学报,1998,6(2):147-152.
[18]  Nemec J, Schaake J. Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation[J]. Hydrological Sciences, 1982, 27(2):327-343.
[19]  Riebsame W. Adjusting water resources management to climate change[J]. Climatic Change, 1988, 13: 69-97.
[20]  Frederick K D. Adapting to climate impacts on the supply and demand for water[J]. Climatic Change, 1997, 37: 141-156.
[21]  Stakhiv E Z, Major D C. Ecosystem evaluation, climate change and water resources planning[J]. Climatic Change,1997, 37: 103-120.
[22]  Hobbs B F, Chao P T , Venkatesh B N. Using decision analysis to include climate change in water resources decision making[J]. Climatic Change, 1997, 37: 177-202.
[23]  Wood A W. Lettenmaier D P, Palmer R D. Assessing climate change implications for water resources planning[J].Climatic Change, 1997, 37: 203-228.
[24]  Rogers P. Engineering design and uncertainties related to climate change[J]. Climatic Change, 1997, 37: 229-242.
[25]  Mendelsohn R , Bennett L L. Global warming and water management: water allocation and project evaluation [J]. Climatic Change, 1997, 37: 271-290.
[26]  Yohe G , Neumann J. Planning for sea level rise and shore protection under climate uncertainty[J]. Climatic Change,1997, 37: 243-270.
[27]  Lettenmaier D P , Burges S J. Climate change: Detection and it impact on hydrologic design[J]. Water Resources Research, 1978, 14(4): 679-687.
[28]  Frederick K D, Major D C , Stakhiv E Z. Water resources planning principles and evaluation criteria for climate change: summary and conclusions [J]. Climatic Change,1997, 37: 291-313.
[29]  Changnon S A. Trends in floods and related climate conditions in Illinois[J]. Climatic Change, 1983, 5: 341-363.
[30]  Krasorskia. Frequency of extremes and its relation to climate fluctuations[J]. Nordic Hydrology, 1993, 24(1): 1-12.
[31]  Wetton P H. Implications of climatic change due to the enhanced green house effects on floods and droughts in Australia[J]. Climatic Change, 1993, 289-317.
[32]  Dracup J A, Kendau D R. Floods and droughts[A]. In:Waggoner P,ed. Climate Change and US. Water Resources[C]. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1990. 243-257.
[33]  Deng Huiping, Zhang Yi. A daily runoff stochastical simulation model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1996,51(Sup.):151-160.[邓慧平,张翼.可用于气候变化研究的日流量随机模拟方法探讨[J].地理学报,1996,51(增刊):151-160.]
[34]  Stanley A C, Misganaw D.Detection of changes in streamflow and floods resulting from climate fluctuations and land use-drainage changes[J]. Climatic Change, 1996, 32: 411-421.
[35] Zhu Yaomei, Yu Yiannian. Parameters for evaluation water circulation environment[J]. Hydrological Processes, 1988,2: 285.
[36]  Bosch J M, Hewlett J D. A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evaportranspiration[J].Journal of Hydrology, 1982,55:3-23.
[37]  Keppler E T, Ziemer R R.Logging effects on streamflow: water yield and summer low flows at caspar creek in Northwestern California[J]. Water Resources Research,1990,26(7):1 669-1 679.
[38]  Jones J A.Peak flow responses to clear-cutting and roads in small and large basins,Western Cascades,Oregon[J]. Water Resources Research,1996,3294:959-102.
[39]  Bathurst J C.Physically-based distributed modelling of an upland catchment using the Systeme Hydrologique Europeen[J].Journal of Hydrology,1986.87:79-102.
[40]  Wigmosta M S ,Vail L W, Lettenmaier D P. A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain. Water resources Research,1994,30(6):1 665-1 679.
[41]  Shugart HH, West O C. Forest succession models[J]. Bioscience, 1980, 30: 308-313.
[42]  Deng Huiping, Wu Zhengfang, Zhou Daowei.Response of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forests inXiaoxinganling Mt. to global climate change—a dynamic modelling [J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2000,11(1):43-46.[邓慧平,吴正方,周道伟.全球气候变化对小兴安岭阔叶红松林影响的动态模拟研究[J].应用生态学报,2000,11(1): 43-46.]
[43]  Agrem G I. State of the Art of models of production-decomposion linkages in conifer and grassland ecosystem[J]. Ecosystem Ecological Applications, 1991, 1: 118-138.
[44]  Okamoto K, Ogiwara T, Yoshizumi T,et al. Influence of the greenhouse effect on yields of wheat, soybean and corn in the united states for different energy scenarios[J]. Climatic Change, 1991, 18: 397-424.
[45]  Bootsma A, Boisvert J, Dumanski J. Climate-based estimates of potential forage yields in Canada using a crop growth model [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,1994, 67: 151-172.
[46]  Singh B, Maayar M E, Andre P,et al. Impacts of a ghg-induced climate change on crop yields: effects of acceleration in maturation, moisture stress and optimal temperature [J].Climatic Change, 1998, 38: 51-86.
[47]  Savabi M R, Flanagan D C, Hebel B,et al. Application of WEPP and GIS GRASS to a small watershed in Indiana[J].J Soil and Water Conservations, 1995, 50(5): 477-483.
[48]  Laflen J M, Lwonard J L , Foster G R. WEPP a new generation of erosion prediction technology[J]. J Soil and Water cons 1991, 46(1): 34-38.
[49]  Udoyara S T, Robert J. Evaluating agricultural non pointsource pollution using integrated geographical information systems and hydrologic/water quality model[J]. J Environ Qual, 1994, 23: 25-35.

[1] 单薪蒙, 温家洪, 王军, 胡恒智. 深度不确定性下的灾害风险稳健决策方法评述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 911-921.
[2] 段伟利, 邹珊, 陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕. 18792015年巴尔喀什湖水位变化及其主要影响因素分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 950-961.
[3] 王澄海, 张晟宁, 张飞民, 李课臣, 杨凯. 论全球变暖背景下中国西北地区降水增加问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 980-989.
[4] 王慧,张璐,石兴东,李栋梁. 2000年后青藏高原区域气候的一些新变化[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(8): 785-796.
[5] 田凤云,吴成来,张贺,林朝晖. 基于 CAS-ESM2的青藏高原蒸散发的模拟与预估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(8): 797-809.
[6] 张子洋, 闫明, MULVANEY Robert, 季峻峰, 效存德, 刘雷保, 安春雷. 东南极 LGB69冰芯 17122001年气温变化记录的初步研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(2): 172-184.
[7] 崔林丽, 史军, 杜华强. 植被物候的遥感提取及其影响因素研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(1): 9-16.
[8] 龙上敏,刘秦玉,郑小童,程旭华,白学志,高臻. 南大洋海温长期变化研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(9): 962-977.
[9] 蔡运龙. 生态问题的社会经济检视[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(7): 742-749.
[10] 萧凌波. 17361911年华北饥荒的时空分布及其与气候、灾害、收成的关系[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(5): 478-487.
[11] 熊建国, 李有利, 张培震. 夷平面研究新进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(4): 378-388.
[12] 武登云, 任治坤, 吕红华, 刘金瑞, 哈广浩, 张弛, 朱孟浩. 冲积扇形态与沉积特征及其动力学控制因素:进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(4): 389-403.
[13] 胡利民,石学法,叶君,张钰莹. 北极东西伯利亚陆架沉积有机碳的源汇过程研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(10): 1073-1086.
[14] 王亚锋,芦晓明,朱海峰,梁尔源. 高山树线的调查与研究方法[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(1): 38-51.
[15] 罗鑫玥,陈明星. 城镇化对气候变化影响的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(9): 984-997.
阅读次数
全文


摘要