太阳活动驱动气候变化空间天气机制研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.11.1099

大量研究表明，从数小时到十年、百年时间尺度上的天气、气候变化受太阳活动影响显著。近年来，全球云量、北大西洋冬季气旋等气候、气象要素与银河宇宙射线通量变化、太阳能量粒子事件等空间天气事件显著的统计相关被陆续发现。在此基础上，提出太阳活动驱动气候变化空间天气机制，其基本观点是：空间天气事件通过改变云物理特性影响气象、气候，其核心是：太阳活动造成的空间天气事件与云微物理过程的联系，目前空间天气理论分化为离子诱导成核机制和全球大气电路—静电云微物理机制（简称Tinsley机制）。主要回顾和总结了近年来空间天气机制研究的发展，包括观测与理论，取得的成果，并对其未来的发展提出展望。

关键词: 太阳活动, 气候变化, 空间天气机制

Reports of a variety of long-term climatological and short-term meteorological responses to solar activity indicate that solar activity controls these changes. There is the need for the mechanism of effect of solar activity on the climate change. The correlations of various climate and meteorological parameters, such as the cloud coverage, with space weather events due to solar activity , such as the variation of the galatic cosmic ray flux (GCR), on a wide range of time scales have been published According to these correlations, the mechanism of effect of solar activity on the climate, called spaceweather mechanism, has been suggested, which is including two sub-mechanisms:(1) the ion mediated nuclear formation theory (IMN theory);(2) Spaceweather-global circuit-cloud microphysics theory (inhereto Tinsley Theory). In this paper we review the progresses of the statistic research on correlation between spaceweather events and meterological and climatical parametersand the proceeding of the work on mechanism of the space-weather effect theory, which includes the proceeding in the ion mediate nuclei formation theory and the Tinsley theory. Although there are lots of work which have been done in the past ten years and the theories grow fast. However there are still some observation and modeling work need to be improved.

Key words: Climate changes space-weather mechanism., Solar activity

中图分类号:

P467

[1]Stuiver M. Solar variability and climate change during the current millennium[J].Nature,1980,286:868-871.
[2]Eddy J A. The mauder minimum[J].Science,1976,192:1 189-1 202.
[3]Raisbeck G M, Yiou F,Jouzel J,et al.¹⁰Be and δ²H in polar ice cores as a probe of the solar variability’s influence on climate[J].Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society of London,1990, A330:463-470.
[4]Magny M. Solar influence on Holocene climate changes Illustrated by correlation between past lake-level fluctuations and fhe atmospheric ¹⁴C record[J].Quaternary Research,1993, 40:1-9.
[5]Karlen W, Kuylenstierna J.On solar forcing of Holocene climate: Evidence from Scandinavia[J].The Holocence,1996,6:359-365.
[6]Eddy J A.Climate and the changing sun[J].Climate Change,1977, 1:173-190.
[7]Wang Y J, Chen H, Edwards R L,et al.The Holocene Asian monsoon: Links to solar charges and North Atlantic climate[J].Science,2005, 308:854-857.
[8]Willson R.Total solar irradiance trend during solar cycle 21 and 22[J].Science,1997, 277:1 963-1 965.
[9]Haigh J D.The role of stratospheric ozone in modulating the solar radiative forcing of climate[J].Nature,1994, 370:544-546.
[10]Haigh J D.The impact of solar variability on climate[J].Science,1996, 272:981-984.
[11]Tinsley B A.Influence of the solar wind on the global electric circuit, and inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics of the troposphere[J].Space Science Reviews,2000,94:231-258.
[12]Yu F,Turo R P.Ultrafine aerosol formation via ion mediation nucleation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2000, 27:883-886.
[13]Carslaw K S, Harrison R G,Kirby J.Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate[J].Science，2002, 298：1 732-1 737.
[14]Ney E P.Cosmic radiation and the weather[J].Nature,1959,183：451.
[15]ISCCP D2. International Satellite Cloud Climate Project-Climatological Summary Product[EB/OL].ftp://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/pub/data/d2/.
[16]Svensmark H,Friis-Christensen E.Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage—A missing link in solar climate relations[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrical Physics,1997,59:1 225-1 232.
[17]Friss-Christensen E, Svensmark H.What do we really know about Sun-climate conncetion? [J].Advances in Space Research,1997,20:913-921.
[18]Eddy J A.Climate and the changing sun[J].Climate Change,1977:1 173-190.
[19]Farrar P D. Are cosmic ray influencing oceanic cloud coverage-or is it only El Niño?[J].Climatic Change,2000,47:7-15.
[20]Wagner G W, Livingstone D M, Masarik J,et al.Some results relevant to the discussion of a possible link between cosmic rays and the Earth's climate[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2001,106:3 381-3 387.
[21]Marsh N, Svensmark H. Cosmic rays, cloud, and climate[J].Space Science Review,2000,94:215-230.
[22]Marsh N, Svensmark H.Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic ray[J].Physical Review Letters,2000,85: 5 004-5 007.
[23]Veretenenko S V, Pudovkin M I.Variations in solar radiation input to the lower atmosphere associated with different helio/geophysical factor[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrical Physics,1999, 61:521-529.
[24]Udelhofen P M,Cess R.Cloud cover variations over the United States: An influence of cosmic rays or solar variability?[J].Geophysical Research Letter,2001,28:2 617-2 620.
[25]Rasmus E B.Solar Activity and Earth’s Climate[M].Berlin：Springer，2001.
[26]Tinsley B A, Deen G W.Apparent tropospheric response to MeV-GeV particle flux variation: A connection via electrofreezing of supercooled water in high level clouds? [J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1991,96:22 283-22 296.
[27]Todd M C, Kniventon D R.Changes in cloud cover associated with Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2001,106:32 031-32 041.
[28]Veretenenko S,Thejll P. Effects of energetic solar proton events on the cyclone development in the North Atlantic[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrical Physics,2004, 66:393-405.
[29]Cai Hongchang, Wei Fengsi. 2-D structure of solar wind speed and heliospheric current sheet[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science,1992,12(3):171-177.[蔡红昌，魏奉思.二维太阳风速度结构与日球电流片[J]. 空间科学学报，1992，12(3):171-177.]
[30]Tinsley B A,Heelis R A.Correlation of atmospheric dynamics with solar activity: Evidence for a connection via electrofreezing of supercooled water in high level clouds? [J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1993, 98:10 375-10 384.
[31]Kniveton D R, Tinsley B A.Daily changes in global cloud cover and Earth transits of the heliospheric current sheet[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004,109:D11201,doi:10.1029/2003JD004232.
[32]Mansurov S M, Mansurova L G, Mansurov G S,et al.North-south asymmetry of geomagnetic and tropospheric events[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics,1974,36:1 957-1 962.
[33]Tinsley B A, Heelis R A.Correlation of atmospheric dynamics with solar activity: Evidence for a connection via electrofreezing of supercooled water in high level clouds?[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1993,98:10 375-10 384.
[34]Burns G B, Tinsley B A, Troshichev O A,et al. Interplanetary magnetic field and atmospheric electric circuit influences on ground level pressure at Vostok[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007(in press).
[35]Burns G B,Frank-Kamenetsky A V, Troshichev O A,et al.Inter-annual consistency of bi-monthly differences in diurnal variation of the ground level, vertical electric field[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2005,110,D10106,doi:10.1029/2004JD005469.
[36]IPCC.Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[C]//Houghtou J T, et al, eds.Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change. New York:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[37]Hartman D L.Radiative effects of clouds on Earth's climate[C]//Hobbs P V.Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions.San Diego:Academic Press Inc., 1993.
[38]Fluckiger E O, Smart D F, Shea M A. A procedure for estimating the change in cosmic ray cutoff rigidities and asymptotic directions at low and middle altitudes during periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1986, 91:7 925-7 930.
[39]Hoppel W A, Anderson R V, Willett J C.Atmospheric electricity in the planetary boundary layer[C]//The Earth's Electrical Environment. Washington DC:NAS Press,1986:149-165.
[40]McCracken K G, Beer J,McDonald F B.Variations of cosmic radiation 1890-1986, and the solar and terrestrial implications[J].Advances in Space Research,2004, 34:397-406.
[41]Dickinson R E.Solar variability and the lower atmosphere[J].Bullutin Amertcan Meteorology Society,1975, 56:1 240-1 248.
[42]Yu F.On the mechanicism controlling atmospheric particle formationl[J].Journal of Aerosol Science,2001,32(S1):603-604.
[43]Yu F, Turco R P.Ultrafine aerosol formation via ion-mediated nucleation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Letters,2000, 27:883-886.
[44]Yu F, Turco R P.From molecular clusters to nanoparticles: The role of ambient ionization in tropospheric aerosol formation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2001,106:4 797-4 814.
[45]Yu F.Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of aerosols: Implications for global cloudiness and climate[J].Journal of Geophyical Research,2002,107:8-1,8-10.
[46]Gringel W,Rosen J M,Hoffman D J.Electrical Structure from 0 to 30 kilometers[C]//The Earth's Electrical Environment.Washington DC:National Academy Press,1986:166-182.
[47]Kazil J,Lovejoy E R.Tropospheric ionization and aerosol production: A model study[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004, 109, D19206, doi:10.1029/2004JD004852.
[48]Yu Fangjun. From molecular clusters to particles of CCN sizes: Effect of variations in galactic cosmic ray flux[J].EOS Transaction, AGU,2005,86(52),Fall Meeting Supplement, Abstract A52B-05.
[49]Svensmark H, Pedersen J P, Marsh N,et al. New Ion-Nueleation mechanism relevant for the Earths atmosphers: Experimental results[J].EOS Transaction,AGU,2005,86(52),Fall Meeting Supplement Abstract A52B-05.
[50]Tinsley B A,Deen G W. Apparent tropospheric response to MeV-Gev particle flux variations: A connection via electrofreezing of supercooled water in high level clouds? [J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1991,96:22 283-22 296.
[51]Tinsley B A. Correlations of atmospheric dynamics with solar wind-induced changes of air-Earth current density into cloud tops[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1996,101:29 701-29 714.
[52]Tinsly B A, Liu W.Rohrbaugh R P,et al.South pole electric field responses to overhead ionospheric convection[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1998,103:26 137-26 146.
[53]Tinsley B A, Rohrbaugh R P, Hei M. Electroscavenging in clouds with broad droplet size distributions and weak electrification[J]. Atmosph Research,2001,59-60:115-135.
[54]Zhou Limin, Tinsley B A.The response of a global circuit model with stratospheric and tropospherica aerosol to cosmic ray flux changes[J].EOS Transaction AGU, 2005,86(52):Fall Meeting Supplement, Abstract A43C-0103, 2005:44. 
[55]Sheng Peixuan, Mao Jietai, Li Jianguo, et al.Atmospheric Physics[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2003.[盛裴轩，毛节泰，李建国，等.大气物理学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2003.]
[56]Wang P K, Grover S N,Pruppacher H R.On the effects of electric charge on the scavenging of aerosol particles by clouds and small raindrops[J].Journal of Atmospheric Science,1978,35:1 735-1 743.
[57]Grover S N, Beard K V. A numerical determination of the efficiency with which electrically charged cloud drops and small raindrops collide with electrically charged spherical particles at various densities[J].Journal of Atmospherics Science,1975,32:2 156-2 165.
[58]Grover S N, Pruppacher H R, Hamielec A E. A numerical determination of the efficiency with which spherical aerosol particles collide with spherical water drops due to inertial impaction and phoretic and electrical forces[J].Journal of Atmos Science,1977,34:1 655-1 663.
[59]Schlamp R J, Grover S N, Pruppacher H R,et al.A numerical investigation of the effect of electric charges and vertical external electric fields on the collision efficiency of cloud drops[J].Journal of Atmospheric Science,1976,33:1 747-1 755.
[60]Tinsley B A, Limin Zhou, Plemmons A S. Changes in scaveinging of particles by droplets due to weak electrification in clouds[J].Atmospheric Research,2006,79:266-295.
[61]Hong Yetang. Progress in study on relationships between solar variablity and climate chages[J].Advances in Earth Science,2000,15(4): 400-405.[ 洪业汤.太阳变化驱动气候变化研究进展[J].地球科学进展，2000，15（4）:400-405.]
[62]Hobbs P V, Rangno A L. Ice particle concentrations in clouds[J].Journal of Atmospheric Science,1985,42:2 523-2 549.
[63]Rango A L, Hobbs P V.Ice particle concentrations and precipitation development in small polar maritime cumuliform cloud[J].Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society,1991,117:207-241.
[64]Zhou Limin, Tinsley B A.The production of space charge in layer clouds[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,112, D11203, doi:10.029/2006JD009768.
[65]Beard K V, H T Ochs III, Twohy C H. Aircraft measurements of high average charges on cloud drops in layer clouds[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31,L14111, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL020465.
[66]Isral H. Atmospheric Electricity, Vol II, Fields, Charges and Currents[R].Israel Program for Scientific Translation, US Dept. of Commerce NTIS Doc.,1973,TT-67-51394/2.
[67]Li X, Temerin M, Baker D N,et al.Quantitative prediction of radiation belt electrons at geostationary orbit based on solar wind measurements[J].Geophysical Research Letter,2001a,28:1 887-1 890.
[68]Li X, Baker D N, Kanekal S G, et al.Long term measurements of radiation belt electrons at geostationary orbit based on solar wind measurements[J].Geophysical Research Letter,2001b, 28:3 827-3 830.
[69]Tinsley B A. On the variability of the stratospheric column resistance in the global electric circuit[J].Atmospheric Research,2005, 76:78-94.
[70]Makino M, Ogawa T. Quantitative estimation of global circuit[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1985, 90(D4):5 961-5 966.
[71]Sapkota B K, Varshneya N C. On the global atmospheric electrical circuit[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrical Physics,1990, 50:1-20.
[72]Tinsley B A, Limin Zhou. Initial results of a global circuit model with stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111, D16205, doi:10.029/2005JD006988. 
[73]Yan Muhong, Zhang Yijun.Review of research on atmospheric electric electric processes and climate change[J].Plateau meterology,1996,15(2):234-242.[言穆弘, 张义军.浅论大气电过程与天气气候[J].高原气象,1996,15（2）:234-242.]

[1]	单薪蒙, 温家洪, 王军, 胡恒智. 深度不确定性下的灾害风险稳健决策方法评述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 911-921.
[2]	段伟利, 邹珊, 陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕. 1879－ 2015年巴尔喀什湖水位变化及其主要影响因素分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 950-961.
[3]	王澄海, 张晟宁, 张飞民, 李课臣, 杨凯. 论全球变暖背景下中国西北地区降水增加问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 980-989.
[4]	王慧,张璐,石兴东,李栋梁. 2000年后青藏高原区域气候的一些新变化[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(8): 785-796.
[5]	田凤云,吴成来,张贺,林朝晖. 基于 CAS-ESM2的青藏高原蒸散发的模拟与预估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(8): 797-809.
[6]	张子洋, 闫明, MULVANEY Robert, 季峻峰, 效存德, 刘雷保, 安春雷. 东南极 LGB69冰芯 1712— 2001年气温变化记录的初步研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(2): 172-184.
[7]	崔林丽, 史军, 杜华强. 植被物候的遥感提取及其影响因素研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(1): 9-16.
[8]	龙上敏,刘秦玉,郑小童,程旭华,白学志,高臻. 南大洋海温长期变化研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(9): 962-977.
[9]	蔡运龙. 生态问题的社会经济检视[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(7): 742-749.
[10]	萧凌波. 1736— 1911年华北饥荒的时空分布及其与气候、灾害、收成的关系[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(5): 478-487.
[11]	熊建国, 李有利, 张培震. 夷平面研究新进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(4): 378-388.
[12]	武登云, 任治坤, 吕红华, 刘金瑞, 哈广浩, 张弛, 朱孟浩. 冲积扇形态与沉积特征及其动力学控制因素：进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(4): 389-403.
[13]	胡利民,石学法,叶君,张钰莹. 北极东西伯利亚陆架沉积有机碳的源汇过程研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(10): 1073-1086.
[14]	王亚锋,芦晓明,朱海峰,梁尔源. 高山树线的调查与研究方法[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(1): 38-51.
[15]	罗鑫玥,陈明星. 城镇化对气候变化影响的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(9): 984-997.

阅读次数

全文

摘要

The Advanced in Mechanism of the Effect of the Solar Activity on the Climate by Space Weather