地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.066   cstr: 32269.14.adearth.CN62-1091/P.2026.066

   

中国农业全要素生产率对气候变化的响应
王子婷1,周广胜1,2,3*   
  1. (1. 郑州大学地球科学与技术学院,河南 郑州 450001;2. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,河北固城农业气象国家野外科学观测研究站,北京 100081;3. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210044)
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:42130514);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费(编号:2024Z001);科技发展基金(编号:2025KJ007)资助

Responses of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity to Climate Change in China

Wang Ziting1, Zhou Guangsheng1, 2, 3   

  1. (1. School of Earth Science and Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Hebei Gucheng Agricultural Meteorology National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
  • About author:Wang Ziting, research area includes agrometeorology. E-mail: 2253729141@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42130514), the Basic Research Fund (Grant No. 2024Z001); Science and Technology Development Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant No.2025KJ007).
现有农业生产对气候变化的适应性评价多集中于作物单产或农业产出,基于农业全要素生产率的综合评价相对不足,限制了气候变化对农业生产系统影响的整体认识。以中国种植业为研究对象,从作物实际生长阶段和耕地空间暴露角度,基于1997—2023 年中国31 个省份面板数据,结合高分辨率气象数据、耕地掩膜和归一化植被指数物候信息,构建省级作物生长阶段温度、降水及极端气候暴露变量,并采用双向固定效应模型考察中国农业全要素生产率增长率对年际间 气候变化的响应。结果表明,中国农业全要素生产率增长率与作物生长阶段温度变化呈较稳定的正向关系,而与作物生长阶段降水变化呈倒U型曲线关系。中国农业全要素生产率增长率对气候变化的响应具有明显的地理区域分异,且对温度冲击存在滞后效应。极端高温与中国农业全要素生产率增长率呈显著负相关,而连续干旱和极端降水等极端事件则与农业全要素生产率增长率的关系不稳定。研究结果为识别气候变化对全要素生产率增长率的影响及采取科学的农业气候适 应措施提供了参考。
Abstract:Existing assessments of agricultural adaptability to climate change have mainly focused on crop yields or agricultural output, while comprehensive assessments based on total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture are relatively lacking, limiting our overall understanding of how climate change affects agricultural production systems. This study takes China’s crop farming as object, and creates province-level exposure variables for temperature, precipitation, and extreme climate based on actual growth stages of crops and the spatial exposure of farmland by using the panel data from 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2023, combined with high-resolution meteorological data, farmland masks, and NDVI-based phenology information. Moreover, it examines how China's total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate in agriculture responds to year-to-year climate changes using a two-way fixed effects model. The results show that the growth rate of China's agricultural TFP has a fairly stable positive relationship with temperature changes during crop growth stages, while it has an inverted U-shaped relationship with precipitation changes during the same stages. The responses of China’s agricultural TFP growth rate to climate change very differently to climate change depending on the region, and temperature shocks have a delayed effect. The relationship of agricultural TFP growth rate is significantly negative with the extreme-heat indicator, while it is less stable with the continuous drought and extreme precipitation. These findings provide the evidence on statistical relationships between crop growth-stage climate exposure and agricultural TFP growth rate, and may serve as a scientific reference for regional agricultural climate-risk assessment and future adaptation measure-makers.

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