地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 771 -779. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.042

综述与评述    下一篇

气候变化背景下复合极端事件研究进展
史军 1( ), 崔林丽 1, 顾宇丹 2, 唐娉 3   
  1. 1.上海市生态气象和卫星遥感中心，上海 200030
    2.上海市气象灾害防御技术中心，上海 200030
    3.中国科学院空天信息创新研究院，北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2023-04-03 修回日期:2023-06-17 出版日期:2023-08-10
  • 基金资助:
    上海市自然科学基金项目“长三角城市群复合型极端事件的演变机制及预估”(23ZR1456900);国家自然科学基金重大项目“地表异常遥感探测与即时诊断方法”(42192584)

Advances in Compound Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change

Jun SHI 1( ), Linli CUI 1, Yudan GU 2, Ping TANG 3   

  1. 1.Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center, Shanghai 200030, China
    2.Shanghai Center for Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology, Shanghai 200030, China
    3.Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2023-04-03 Revised:2023-06-17 Online:2023-08-10 Published:2023-08-28
  • About author:SHI Jun (1975-), male, Tianzhen County, Shanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include climate change and meteorological disasters. E-mail: sunrainlucky@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai “Evolution mechanism and prediction of compound extreme events in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration”(23ZR1456900);The Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Remote sensing detection and real-time diagnosis of surface anomalies”(42192584)
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复合极端事件是导致社会或环境风险的多种驱动因子和/或致灾因子的组合，对人类社会和生态系统造成的影响往往比单个极端事件更严重、更具破坏性。首先简要论述了复合极端事件的定义和内涵，包括先决条件事件、多变量事件、时间复合事件以及空间复合事件；然后详细综述了复合极端事件的时空演变特征、复合极端事件变化的影响因素和未来复合极端事件情景预估3个方面的研究进展；最后针对目前研究中面临的问题，提出今后研究关注的重点，包括复合极端事件的变量/指标选取及阈值确定、复合极端事件因子间依赖关系及相互作用、复合极端事件模拟性能评估和未来情景预估以及复合极端事件影响的动态过程及致灾机制。

关键词: 复合极端事件, 时空演变特征, 影响因素, 情景预估

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the safety of both natural and built environments. Compound extreme events are combinations of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risks, and their impacts on human society and natural ecosystems are often more serious and destructive than those of a single extreme event. Understanding the changes in compound extreme events is important for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and disaster risk management. Here, the definitions and connotations of compound extreme events are briefly discussed, including preconditioned, multivariate, temporal, and spatial compounding events. Subsequently, the progress in compound extreme event research is discussed in terms of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, influencing factors, and future scenario projections. Given the problems in current research, we suggest that future studies should focus on studying compound extreme events regarding variable/index selection and threshold determination, dependence and interaction analysis among drivers and/or hazards, simulation performance evaluation and future projections, and their dynamic processes and disaster-causing mechanisms. Compound extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warming world, and many regions are projected to experience an increase in the probability of compound events with greater global warming. Therefore, we must improve our understanding of the causes and drivers of compound and cascade events.

Key words: Compound extremes, Temporal and spatial evolutions, Influencing factors, Scenario projection

中图分类号: 

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