在干旱区,由水资源过度开发利用而引起的生态环境问题十分普遍,水危机和生态环境恶化引起的社会经济可持续发展问题,已成为全世界普遍关注的热点。对于一个内陆河流域,究竟经济社会系统能用多少水?给河流生态系统应该留多少水?既要保护生态环境,又能加速社会经济发展,走出贫困,摆脱水—生态—经济系统的恶性循环,是亟待解决的现实难题。以新疆为例,阐述了社会水循环影响下的内陆河流水循环演变的格局、趋势和面临的挑战,综合分析了国内外地表水资源允许开发利用率的合理阈值,并在中国工程院关于西北地区水资源配置、生态环境建设等大量研究成果的基础上,提出了新疆内陆河流实现 “五五分账、三七调控”的水资源合理配置、调控管理模式,旨在为西北干旱区创新水资源管理并促进水—经济—生态协调发展提供参考。关键词:干旱区;水资源;合理阈值;水循环;格局演变

With the excessive exploitation and utilization of water resources, a number of ecological environmental problems have arisen in many rivers in arid regions. The effect has been particularly severe for many of the rivers, leading to the problem of sustainable development of society and economy. To protect the ecological environment and develop the social economy, we focused on two problems: ①How much water does the society need; ②How much water does the river needs. Based on a large number of scientific achievements of studying water resources allocation and ecoenvironmental management in Northwest of China by the Chinese Academy of Engineering, we studied the changing patterns and trends of water circulation of inland river in Xinjiang under the effects of social economic water cycle and the challenges we face in the future. We also studied the appropriate threshold of the exploitation and utilization of water resources rate both in China and abroad. We proposed a management and regulation pattern of water resources in two aspects. The water consumption divides the ecological environmental and social economic water consumption each 50% to 50%. The 30% of runoff in the river should be retained to maintain the basic natural water cycle. The maximum volume of water diversion from the river is no more than 70% of the runoff. This pattern provides reference for water resources management innovation and coordinating development of water, economy, and ecology in arid region in Northwest of China.