过去2 000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.03.0336

过去2 000年气候变化对区域社会经济发展的影响是PAGES计划研究的重要主题之一。围绕过去2 000年气候变化对中国经济波动、社会稳定性、朝代更替与社会兴衰影响的问题,重点综述了近年来关于上述3个方面的研究成果。得出中国历史社会经济与气候变化的时序共振现象中可能确实蕴含着内在的关联机制;暖期气候总体有助于社会经济的健康发展,而气候转冷引发的社会经济效应可能与社会发展本身有关,且被社会放大。未来的研究需要进一步挖掘中国历史文献信息的潜力,关注气候—人类社会相互作用机理的解释及区域影响差异。

关键词: 气候变化, 社会经济影响, 响应, 中国

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2 000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.

Key words: Climate change, Socio-economic impacts, Response, China.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 环境变化—人类社会—历史崩溃的概念模型 ^{[

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Fig.1 A conceptual model for environmental change-human society-historical collapse ^{[

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摘要

A Review of Climatic Impacts on Chinese Socio-economic Development over the Past 2000 Years