Please wait a minute...
img img
高级检索
地球科学进展  2007, Vol. 22 Issue (11): 1191-1207    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.11.1191
干旱气候变化与可持续发展     
在过去40年里出现的新趋势——北美持续旱段
Pavel Ya. Groisman1,Richard W. Knight2
1.美国国家气候数据中心,美国 北卡罗莱纳州 艾西维尔市 28801;2.STG, Inc. 美国 北卡罗莱纳州 艾西维尔市 28801
Prolonged Dry Episodes over North America: New Tendencies Emerging During the Last 40 Years
Pavel Ya. Groisman1,Richard W. Knight2
1.UCAR Project Scientist at National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA; 2.STG, Inc., Asheville, North Carolina, USA
 全文: PDF(4193 KB)  
摘要:

在普遍增温的背景下,强降水过程中降水量不平衡增长(扩大植物生长期,加剧蒸腾作用)及降水总量的微弱改变将增加具有潜在威胁的极端气候事件——持续干期出现的频率。本文研究了过去几十年里,强降水过程出现频率发生改变的同一时期,这种趋势是否在北美北纬50。以南地区已经出现。同时,对日平均温度大于5°C,大量水分用于蒸腾的暖季及其给地面生态系统健康和农业带来巨大威胁的无降水期中,没有适量降水(>1.0 mm)的漫长干旱段进行了评价。在过去的四十年里,干旱段的平均持续时间显著延长,加拿大东南部持续20天以上,美国东部及沿墨西哥湾地区一个月以上,美国西南部及墨西哥北部2个月以上。 因此,美国东部为期一个月的干旱段的重现期减少了一大半,从15年缩减到6~7年。在相对湿季里,大部分北纬55o南部的大陆上旱段的平均持续时间正在延长。但是,这一趋势并没有在美国的西北部及与加拿大接壤的南部地区发现。

关键词: 持续干期北美气候变化干旱    
Abstract:

A disproportionate increase in precipitation coming from intense rain events, in the situation of general warming (thus, an extension of the vegetation period with intensive transpiration) and an insignificant change in total precipitation could lead to an increase in the frequency of potentially serious type of extreme events: prolonged periods without precipitation (even when the mean seasonal rainfall totals increase).  This paper investigates whether this development is already occurring during the past several decades over North America south of 55°N, for the same period when changes in frequency of intense precipitation events are being observed.   Lengthy strings of “dry” days without sizeable (>1.0 mm) precipitation were assessed only during the warm season (defined as a period when mean daily temperature is above the 5℃ threshold) when water is intensively used for transpiration and prolonged periods without sizable rainfall represent a hazard for terrestrial ecosystem's health and agriculture.  During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (20-days or longer in southeastern Canada, 1-month or longer in the Eastern United States and along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and 2-months or longer in the Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico) has significantly increased. As a consequence, the return period of 1-month-long dry episodes over the Eastern U.S. has been reduced more than twofold from 15 to 6~7 years.   The longer average duration of dry episodes has occurred during a relatively wet period around most of the continent south of 55°N but is not observed over the Northwestern U.S. and adjacent regions of Southern Canada. 

Key words: Climatic change    Drought    Prolonged dry spells sorry for this inconvenience    North America
收稿日期: 2007-09-15 出版日期: 2007-11-10
:  P468  
通讯作者: Pavel Ya. Groisman, Ph D.E-mail: pasha.Groisman@noaa.gov     E-mail: pasha.Groisman@noaa.gov
作者简介: Pavel Ya. Groisman, Ph D.E-mail: pasha.Groisman@noaa.gov
服务  
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章  

引用本文:

Pavel Ya. Groisman,Richard W. Knight. 在过去40年里出现的新趋势——北美持续旱段[J]. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(11): 1191-1207.

Pavel Ya. Groisman,Richard W. Knight. Prolonged Dry Episodes over North America: New Tendencies Emerging During the Last 40 Years. Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(11): 1191-1207.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.11.1191        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2007/V22/I11/1191

[1]Andreadis K M, Clark E A, Wood A W,et al. Twentieth-Century drought in the conterminous United States[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2005,6:985-1 001.
[2]Bengtsson L.Uncertainties of global climate predictions[C]//Schultze, et al,eds. Global Biogeochemical Cycles in the Climate System[M]. San Diego, London: Academic Press,2001:15-30.
[3]Cavazos T, Turrent C, Lettenmaier D P.Extreme precipitation variability in the core of the North American monsoon[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2007(in review).
[4]Cayan D R, Kammerdiener S A, Dettinger M D, et al. Changes in the onset of spring in the Western United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2001,82:399-415.
[5]Coles S G. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values[M]. London: Springer-Verlag:2001.
[6]Dai A, Trenberth K E, Qian T. A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2004,5:1 117-1 130. 
[7]Draper N R, Smith H. Applied Regression Analysis[M]. John Wiley & Sons, Inc,1966.
[8]Easterling D R. Recent changes in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002, 83:1 327-1 332.
[9]Easterling D R, Evans J L, Ya P.et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:  A brief review[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2000,81:417-425.
[10]Folland C K, Karl T R. Observed climate variability and change[C]//Houghton J T, et al, eds. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York: Cambridge University Press,2001:99-181.
[11]Frich P, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Research,2002,19:193-212.
[12]Gillett N P, Weaver A J, Zwiers F W,et al. Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires[J].Geophysical Research Letters,31, L18211, doi:10.1029/2004GL020876,2004.
[13]Groisman P Ya, Easterling D R. Variability and trends of precipitation and snowfall over the United States and Canada[J]Journal of Climate,1994,7:184-205.
[14]Groisman P Ya, Legates D R.Documenting and detecting long-term precipitation trends: where we are and what should be done[J].Climatic Change,1995,31:601-622.
[15]Groisman P Y, 13 Co-Authors. Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climatic change[J]. Climatic Change,1999,42:243-283.
[16]Groisman P Ya, Knight R W, Karl T R. Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the 20th century[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,,2001,82:219-246.
[17]Groisman P Ya, Knight R W,  Karl T R,et al. Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in-situ observations[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2004,5:64-85. 
[18]Groisman P Ya, Knight R W, Easterling D R, et al. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18:1 326-1 350.
[19]Hegerl G C, Zwiers F W, Stott P A,et al. Detectability of anthropogenic changes in temperature and precipitation extremes[J].Journal of Climate,2004,17:3 683-3 700.
[20]Herweijer C, Seager R, Cook E R, et al.North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data[J]. Journal of Climate,2007,20:1 353-1 376.
[21]Kagan R L.Averaging of meteorological fields[C]//Gandin L S, Smith T M, eds. English translation; originally published in Russian in 1979 by Gidrometeoizdat). Kluwer Academic Publishers,1997:279.
[22]Karl T R, Knight R W. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the USA[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79:231-241. 
[23]Keetch J J, Byram G M. A drought index for forest fire control. USDA. Forest Service Research Paper SE-38. 35 pp.[EB/OL] http://www.srs.fs.fed.us/pubs/,1968.
[24]Kendall M G, Stuart A. Inference and Relationship[J].Vol. 2. The Advance Theory of Statistics. Ch. Griffin and Co,1967.
[25]Kharin V V, Zwiers F W, Zhang X. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations[J].Journal of Climate,2007,20:1 419-1 444.
[26]Kunkel K E.North American trends in extreme precipitation[J].Natural Hazards,2003,29:291-305.
[27]Kunkel K E, Andsager K, Easterling D R. Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada[J].Journal of Climate,1999,12:2 515-2 527.
[28]Kunkel K E, Easterling D R, Redmond K,et al. Temporal variations in frost-free season in the United States: 1895-2000[J].Geophysical Research Letters,31, L03201, doi:10.1029/2003GL018624,2004.
[29]Manabe S, Wetherald R T, Stouffer R J. Summer dryness due to an increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration[J].Climatic Change,1981,3:347-386
[30]Manabe S, Wetherald R T, Milly P C D, et al.Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment[J].Climatic Change,2004,64:59-76.
[31]McAvaney B J. Co-Authors, 2001: Model Evaluation[C]//Houghton J T, et al, eds.Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom, Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001:471-523.
[32]McCabe G J, Clark M P. Trends and variability in snowmelt runoff in the Western United States[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2005, 6:476-482.
[33]National Climatic Data Center, NCDC, 2007:  TD-9640. Time bias corrected divisional   temperature-precipitation-drought index[EB/OL]. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/. Description available at http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/drought.README,2007.
[34]Polyak I I. Computational Statistics in Climatology[M].Oxford: Oxford University Press,1996.
[35]Ropelewski C F, Halpert M S. Quantifying Southern Oscillation-Precipitation relationships[J].Journa of Climate,1996,9:1 043-1 059.
[36]Semenov V A, Bengtsson L. Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: Greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM[J].Climate Dynamic,2002,19:123-140.
[37]Shein K A. State of the climate in 2005[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2006,87:1-S102.
[38]Soil and Water Conservation Society. Conservation Implications of Climate Change: Soil Erosion and Runoff from Cropland[J].Soil and Water Conservation Society, Ankeny, Iowa,2003:24.
[39]Stone D A, Weaver A J, Zwiers F W. Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity[J].Atmosphere Ocean,2000,38:321-347.
[40]Sun B, P Ya Groisman. Variations in low cloud cover over the United States during the second half of the 20th century[J].Journal of Climate,2004,17:1 883-1 888.
[41]Vincent L A, Mekis E. Changes in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Canada over the 20th century. Atmoshere-Ocean,2006,44:177-193.
[42]Willeke G, Hosking J R M, Wallis J R,et al. The National Drought Atlas[R]. Institute for Water Resources Report 94-NDS-4,1994.

[1] 赵文智, 周宏, 刘鹄. 干旱区包气带土壤水分运移及其对地下水补给研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(9): 908-918.
[2] 周洪建. 当前全球减轻灾害风险平台的前沿话题与展望——基于2017年全球减灾平台大会的综述与思考[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(7): 688-695.
[3] 李育, 刘媛. 干旱区内流河流域长时间尺度水循环重建与模拟——以石羊河流域为例[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(7): 731-743.
[4] 李兴文, 张鹏, 强小科, 敖红. 三门峡会兴沟剖面黄土—古土壤序列的岩石磁学研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(5): 513-523.
[5] 何霄嘉, 王敏, 冯相昭. 生态系统服务纳入应对气候变化的可行性与途径探讨[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(5): 560-567.
[6] 吴佳, 高学杰, 韩振宇, 徐影. 基于有效温度指数的云南舒适度变化分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(2): 174-186.
[7] 程根伟, 范继辉, 彭立. 高原山地土壤冻融对径流形成的影响研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(10): 1020-1029.
[8] 田彪, 丁明虎, 孙维君, 汤洁, 王叶堂, 张通, 效存德, 张东启. 大气CO研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(1): 34-43.
[9] 王聪强, 杨太保, 许艾文, 冀琴, MihretabG.Ghebrezgabher. 近25年唐古拉山西段冰川变化遥感监测[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(1): 101-109.
[10] 史培军, 王爱慧, 孙福宝, 李宁, 叶涛, 徐伟, 王静爱, 杨建平, 周洪建. 全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(8): 775-781.
[11] 焦念志, 李超, 王晓雪. 海洋碳汇对气候变化的响应与反馈[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(7): 668-681.
[12] 董文杰, 袁文平, 滕飞, 郝志新, 郑景云, 韦志刚, 丑洁明, 刘昌新, 齐天宇, 杨世莉, 阎东东, 张婧. 地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合及应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(12): 1215-1219.
[13] 裴巧敏, 马玉贞, 胡彩莉, 李丹丹, 郭超, 刘杰瑞. 全球典型地区MIS 5e阶段气候特征研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(11): 1182-1196.
[14] 何志斌, 杜军, 陈龙飞, 朱喜, 赵敏敏. 干旱区山地森林生态水文研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 1078-1089.
[15] 赵进平, 史久新, 王召民, 李志军, 黄菲. 北极海冰减退引起的北极放大机理与全球气候效应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(9): 985-995.